It's that time of the year again, when the rumours and contract negotiations shift into over-drive in one obscure publication or another everyone is linked to everyone else. I wouldn't be surprised if amidst the dark meandering corridors of cyberspace there is a story citing the return a pair of ex-Minardi legends Gaston Mazzacane and Zsolt Baumgartner to the F1 paddock... and if there isn't well, you heard it here first. But in all seriousness the rumours this time are centred around a certain Spaniard in a red Italian car, because that Italian motor hasn't been doing too much winning of late. However the options are rather limited further up the grid - Mercedes and Red Bull are probably going to keep their drivers, so where would Mr Alonso actually go if he left Ferrari. The word on the internet is McLaren... which given their 2014 pace seems like a very silly idea... but McLaren are moving to Honda in 2015 - they could be back up front. If Alonso does move then the dominoes all start to fall in line - a gap at Ferrari to fill and someone would have to depart from McLaren, Button has been defending his position in the team recently... a little under pressure perhaps. It's all a little tentative at the moment - the merry-go-round could see no changes at the front or a complete overhaul... or even a seat for Mazzacane, but that might be pushing it a bit.
The other solution is Bernie's solution, which by definition makes it a decision sculpted out of unrefined lunacy, straight from the mines of insanity. In one of the overlord's recent ideas or outbursts - I can't really tell the difference any more, he has determined the lower teams to be expendable. He claims he'd rather the richer teams field three cars than have a wider range of teams - the diversity of the grid is one of the things many fans like about the sport. Look at the BTCC - 31 cars from a variety of manufacturers and teams, and that is marvellous. By all means have three cars per team, but we need to make sure we don't lose teams from the bottom of the grid at the same time. Think about it, some of the world's, if not mine, favourite teams are from the second half of the grid - the likes of Minardi, Jordan, Super Aguri, and Arrows are all sorely missed. Some have been bought out by bigger richer companies because, in a cyclical turn of events, Bernie's organisation of the financial structure of the sport is geared to benefit him rather than the sport as a whole... after all he does need to have enough money to pay off all those bribery charges.
The Venue
This weekend the calendar moves into the far east, visting southern Japan for our annual visit to the Suzuka circuit. A circuit which is one of the best, if not the best track on the calendar - on par with Spa-Francorchamps from a few race weekends ago. Sukuka is brilliant, a representation of how motor-racing circuits should be, it has shapely corners in all of the right places - ones that give you a nice fuzzy feeling when taken at speed... I imagine. Not that I get to have a go at such things, but I have seen videos and played simulations - which is the closest I'll achieve.
Based on my intensive research in the simulator(ish) - here's how the layout plays out. Suzuka doesn't hide the goods at the start of the lap, unveiling a majestic double-corner almost perfectly cambered. It takes hold of the car and gently guides it to through the decreasing-radius curve, these sort of corners don't always work out too well - but on Suzuka it fits beautifully. On the exit of the turn you are then presented with the full frontal splendour of the first sector beginning with the enticing esses sequence, each turn getting progressively harder and tighter as you thrust up the hill. At the climax of the ascent the cars explode into the almost full speed dunlop curve, precision is very important here because of the lack of run-off, things can get very messy, very quickly.
Sector one isn't done quite, after finishing dunlop there is only a fraction of time to summon more stamina and go at it again. Degners 1 and 2 bring the sector to an exciting conclusion - at the first apex you just need to subtly caress the inside curb before plunging deep into degner 2. Too much and the car is on a one way trip to the barrier - the margins of error so much smaller in the wet, and looking at the forecast, things are going to get very slippery indeed.
After crossing under the bridge, defining the figure-8 shape of the circuit, we come to the slowest corner - the Kobayashi hairpin (as it is named here at Blog HQ). Not usually a conventional place to make a pass, but Suzuka has a tendency to provide openings you wouldn't normally go for, and are only presented to those who've tamed and embraced the track. The lap curves round for a spot of Spoon corner to round off the second sector, Spoon another double decreasing radius curve - similar turn one - just tighter and less rounded. Because in the end some of the best curves come in pairs... The bottom the curve stretches out onto the final leg of the lap and the long back straight.
The final sector starts with a significant kink, curves and kinks - Sukuka is often more track than any one person can handle and over the years 130R has had plenty of attention. Of all the tantalising sweeping corners this kink grabs the headlines, in the week leading up to the race Adrian Sutil suggested that the loose rear ends on the 2014 cars make it even more of challenge. The lap finishes up with the Casio Triangle - a popular overtaking spot even if the entry is narrow and challenging. Many cars have have damaged wing times attempting to force the issue before racing to the line.
The Form Guide
If the car stays intact and the drivers manage not to run into each other this should be another walkover for Mercedes - because while downforce is very important at Suzuka, this is still a power circuit. In terms of which Mercedes driver will claim the first step of the podium, is anyone's guess - the track, in theory should favour Rosberg because of the flowing nature and importance of precision. But the speed and on-the-limit style needed to maximise everything Suzuka has to offer could take that advantage and pass it back to Hamilton. Behind Mercedes I think that it will be Red Bull and Williams in the immediate chasing pack - and Ferrari may find themselves shuffled back a little bit. The red machines tend to prefer slower circuits like Singapore and Hungary but recent improvements may see them closer than in earlier races.
In the battle for the mid-field, McLaren, Force India and Toro Rosso could find themselves arguing over who gets out of Q2 on Saturday and the minor points on Sunday. Again it looks increasingly unlikely that Sauber will be scoring some points this weekend, and on an aero-dependant track will be under pressure from Lotus and possibly Bianchi.
At the very back Caterham have allowed Kobayashi to compete in his home race, and while a repeat of that podium for Sauber is very unlikely - he might be able to execute a pass or two at Kobayashi corner. If the Caterham can catch up with anything that is, because back at basecamp - Caterham's financial struggles are intensifying. Bailiffs have taken action against the Caterham team factory... some points this weekend would help turn fortunes around...
Hang on... points for Caterham, that sounds a little far-fetched doesn't it - wouldn't that require some form of divine interruption... Well I enclose this link (one which will no longer be significant if you are reading this in the distant future, and in that event greetings people of the future) - Very Angry Weather.... - This is a link to wind movement off the south coast of Japan - where the track is - depicting a very angry typhoon approaching the country. This typhoon is scheduled to make full landfall on Monday, but the storms preceding on Sunday could be very violent. The FIA are considering contingency plans if the storms do completely wash out Sunday, after all similar events have made qualifying impossible in the past, 2009 being the most recent example. In 2004 the track was in lockdown due an impending typhoon warning... so a very wet and chaotic weekend is possible, just like the torrential 2007 Japanese GP when it was held in Fuji. Bring it on.... please.
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