It has been a difficult week for everyone involved with the sport, only made more difficult with the short turn around from that weekend in Japan to a completely new venue in the Sochi Olympic park. We all know that this part of Europe has been in the news at the moment with the ongoing aggravation between Russia and Ukraine. Like recent visits to Bahrain many people called for the cancellation of this event - but F1 has taken the decision to stay out of local politics, as will this corner of the internet because I am certainly not qualified to deal with the political situation. Naturally concerns in the paddock lie firmly with the situation faced by Jules Bianchi - the current information tells us that Jules suffered a brain injury similar in nature to the one suffered by Richard Hammond after his crash in the rocket car. It is a broad spectrum diagnosis which depends entirely on the severity, which like Hammond could result in full recovery with time. Marussia have nominated Alex Rossi as the reserve driver for this weekend on the official entry list, but haven't decided on the level of team's participation in light of recent events.
In other, less important news - the layout for the 2016 Azerbaijan GP in Baku was revealed, and it looks... different. Sector one is dull and... well, poor - but the rest of the lap could be fun - a 2.2km full speed conclusion to the lap is concerning - an estimated 340km/h speed on a street course sounds unwise. Something that is even more intriguing is that this is to be entitled the European GP... but Baku is geographically in Asia... Bernie is good at geography. But there is a precedent for this sort of business - a Swiss GP was held in France decades ago, and the Luxembourg GP was held in Germany in the late 90's. Even the San Marino GP had always been held in Italy. Turns out F1 can't do geography.
In team news Lotus have finally confirmed that they will run Mercedes engines in 2015 - so Grosjean can stop complaining about the woeful performance of the Renault currently in this car. In Singapore the Frenchman was apoplectic with the car cutting out in qualifying. Also the ongoing saga between Vettel, Ferrari and Alonso taking another turn - as Alonso couldn't confirm whether he'd be on the grid at all in 2015. Another rumour suggests that both Alonso and Vettel would end up in McLaren... but who knows how that'll play out.
The Venue
Sochi is completely new so, we have no real pre-conceptions of how the race is going to turn out. All of the pre-race test footage from the venue was far from promising - it looked bland and dull, if track was viewed on a historic black and white television you wouldn't notice the difference. But as the teams rolled into the Olympic park this week the track was subject to a magnificent transformation. It looks bright and vibrant, far more like a proper racing circuit. Just like the winter Olympics themselves there were fears of facilities being up to standard only to find every stadium and arena looking spectacular. This race track is no different - it looks the part, and the pit complex looks like it has fallen straight out of a video game (hopefully means the modding community can put it into rFactor soon enough). From the initial comments made by the drivers on the track walks today have likened it inevitably to Valencia and Korea - more so to the former. Of course this isn't a promising comparison - because Valencia wasn't wonderful even though the finale was an impressive spectacle.
Looking at the layout it is difficult to tell what each corner looks like - there is a prototype track I've been using in the simulator but that was only based on the released map earlier in the year. Turn one is very similar to the Valencian street circulit - only with no room for error, you could also compare it to the first turn at the Townsville street circuit in Australia. I think this corner exists to prevent the field arriving at turn two all at the same time on the opening lap. However turn two is considerably further down the road - so there is plenty of time for everyone to fan out again. When everyone does reach turn two they will be closing in on 200mph for what appears to be a typical 90 degree street track corner. Although this doesn't really count as a street track, as it is permanent facility in the confines of a public area. Turn three is the key focal point of the track, a huge semi-circular sweeping corner which will be very quick. It does remind me of the stadium turn at the most recent Houston street track - a corner that will remain infamous for ending Dario Franchitti's indycar career with a violent accident. Sochi's version is much wider and more open so the chances of a replication is fortunately very unlikely.
Turn four seems like a clone of turn two, taking the cars away from the circle turn and towards the main Olympic stadium - turn five looks to be a slightly more open version of turn four. It's corners like this that do make the place seem a little uninspiring - but they appear more open and friendly than some of the needless painted chicanes the Spanish venue was cursed with. But after this track looks like it picks up some pace as it rounds close to the Ice Hockey stadium - I think it is anyway. Turns 6 and 7 are more open than their predecessors - similar to the chicane at the start of the final sector in Valencia - two of the best corners on the entire lap - so these might prove to be rather fun. This sector is concluded by another seemingly generic 90 degree corner onto the back 'straight'.
The similarities with Valencia continue out the back of the circuit with a sweeping, curving back 'straight' - considered a straight by someone who has never owned a ruler - as it will host one of the two DRS zones. Hopefully the curvature of the track won't disrupt the slipstream and overtaking chances at the end of the section, because turn 11 could be a prime passing zone. While the first two sectors of the lap do show plenty of promise and are interesting even in the rough prototype I have access to (there are probably newer versions out there I just haven't tried them yet), the final part of the lap looks a little forced. It seems as if Tilke and his infinite wisdom once more has reverted to type and tried to place too many corners in too little space. Turns 11 and 12 form a slow chicane with no run-off space on the exit - so if something happens here there will have to be a safety car intervention. After a slight kink, mirroring turn one in radius if not in speed we have another chicane in the opposite direction. The second apex being more open than the first. To bring the lap to a conclusion we have two more 90 degree corners onto the pit straight.
The Form Guide
Even though we have no previous data or estimations on how each team will perform it is a reasonable assumption to assume that Mercedes will be on top as usual. Potentially this sort of track will favour Hamilton, but we said the same thing about Singapore and qualifying there came down to 0.007s. As to who will be chasing the Mercedes the closest and I would suggest that Williams will be very competitive - as they were in Singapore and Canada. But overall I expect margins at the front - barring Mercedes - to be very close between Red Bull, Williams and Ferrari in the competition for the final spot on the podium. The straights here don't really seem long enough to draw McLaren into that particular fight, same with Force India - their battle will be for the minor points alongside Toro Rosso and their local racer Daniil Kvyat... I wonder whether the death stare might subside slightly on home ground.
The lower mid-field will be a battle between Sauber and Lotus - and could fall into either team's hands. Lotus have said that the configuration of the circuit won't hurt their car as much as other venues have this season - so potentially they could have the advantage in that battle. At the very back decisions have yet to be made about whether Marussia will field a full team - or withdraw completely in respect of Jules Bianchi. I hope Marussia do compete as a sign of solidarity to their injured driver. After the tragic accident of Allan Simonsen at Le Mans in 2013 - Aston Martin racing offered to retire their cars, but were asked to continue by Allan's family.
I do think, and hope there will be some immediate procedural changes this weekend, with respect of safety car utilisation. A recommendation from the track officials has pointed out that if possible cars with mechanical dramas should pull over to the right hand side of the track - as this is the easiest recovery position. Access from the outer support road is reported to be slower - I do hope that a car abandoned on the outside would trigger a safety car rather than trying to get personnel to cross the track under mere yellows. It does mean that anyone hitting the wall in turn one will be on the outside of the track in a damaged car - and recovery will be difficult. Stepping straight into the unknown so soon after a sombre weekend isn't ideal - but Russia seem to have prepared a capable facility.
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