Friday 27 March 2015

Round 2 - Malaysia 2015 - Preview

Greetings Internet, 

Well, we all thought that Australia was a bit of a non-event, and I do have to keep checking the internet to see if I was classified as a finisher... because hardly anyone else did. But since that attempt at a season opener, all hell has broken loose in the paddock - what started as a general irritation over the course of the past season has erupted into a lot of anger and shouting up and down the pit-lane. Well it would if they were in the same pit-lane when the arguments unfolded. At the epicentre of this torrent of comments is Christian Horner - who in matter of weeks has spontaneously devolved from being a simple grumpy sore loser to a full on lunatic. Mr Horner is especially cross at not winning in Australia - and being beaten by several other cars along the way, and
to make matters worse the whole Red Bull fraternity has boarded this particular bandwagon. They have stepped up their complaints against Renault - for making a shoddy engine, and added some complaints against Mercedes for, well - not having a shoddy engine. Yes the situation with Renault is unfortunate, the engine isn't up to scratch and is being hammered by the other manufacturers. But does that give Red Bull and Horner the right to rain down upon the French company, not in the slightest. If the engine was the only thing wrong with the car, why are Toro Rosso - with the same power specification - on exactly the same pace as the main team. You'd expect the junior team to be sufficiently beaten by the considerably better funded, Newey designed senior outfit. That indicates that the issues run deeper than just the malicious finger pointing at Renault, it just isn't a good enough car. Take all the fancy aerodynamic trickery and blown diffusers from the previous incarnations of the Red Bull racer and they are all out of ammunition to take on the likes of Mercedes, Ferrari and Williams. 

Naturally Renault were a little hurt by all this, and their sporting representative -  Cyril fought back attacking Red Bull design guru Adrian Newey. Adrian, like Horner and the general Red Bull cohort placed the blame for the difficulties squarely at Renault's door - Cyril claimed these allegations were nothing but lies. The Renault man then tweeted a picture of boxing gloves before heading out to Malaysia - which sort of indicates that the fracas isn't over and done with. So Horner, Matechitz and whoever else felt like joining the party decided that if they can't beat everyone constantly with their aero gubbins, and they can't coerce Renault into matching Red Bull's development regime - that pegging back the competition is the next best idea. The team apparently went to the FIA demanding something be done to hobble Mercedes' engine advantage or they'd threaten to quit the sport. Frankly this is just a ridiculous degree of pettiness from a team that spend four years at the front, and as soon as someone else does a better job they want to throw the towel in. The thing is, Mr Horner, it isn't just the power plant in the Mercedes that is giving you a good kicking - it's the whole car. It it was the engine, and the engine alone - Force India and Lotus would be hammering you as well... and they're not. So curtailing Mercedes power advantage would cripple the other teams using the same equipment, it would mean Ferrari were in an unchallenged second place with Williams pegged back. All it would do is move Lotus out of the way so you can have a nice clear view of the back of the Sauber instead. More to the point, there is no balancing mechanism in F1, this isn't the BTCC with success ballast and reverse grids (...no Bernie don't even think about it). 

The most amusing part of the whole thing is McLaren - that team also have a prestigious past one that completely eclipses anything RBR have accomplished. They finished last, and are a long way off the pace - did Rob Dennis and Boullier start launching attacks at their engine supplier Honda or the other teams. Nope. Honda are slower than Renault, because their engine doesn't work properly - but the team remain united and determined to fix their problems and move forward. At this rate it won't be long before Honda and McLaren catch up and surpass Red Bull - it all fuels the rumours that Renault want to take over a team again to reform Renault Squadron. At the moment that looks like Toro Rosso are the most likely targets for a takeover bid. So away from the furore of conflict and accusations there is some good news - Alonso, Bottas and Manor all plan to compete this weekend, meaning 20 cars will be making an effort. How many of those will actually make the grid is another manner - Manor might struggle, but the rest should be fine. Even if Bottas suffers a recurrence of the injury Adrian Sutil has been drafted in as a reserve driver. I bet Susie Wolff is immensely pleased about that call...

Sepang Malaysia




While the initial visit to Albert Park was a oddity, and a rather uneventful one at that, Sepang represents the beginning of Herman Tilke's reign over track design with one of his earliest projects. In contrast to the subsequent creations this one doesn't make me want to stab it in the face, although there are certain 'features' that are equal parts baffling and pointless. I suppose timing has a lot to do with the design choices that were made in Mr Tilke's office - his track designs are often tailored to the needs and complaints of the sport at the time. China and Bahrain focussed on the idea of "long straight into a hairpin equals fun" - which more often than not didn't work. Korea, India and Valencia - added more hairpins and straights because of the introduction of DRS. Abu-Dhabi just exists a giant corporate playground and as a symbol of the direction Bernie wants to go with the sport - plans for Azerbaijan and Qatar follow the same mould. 

The Sepang circuit was introduced in 1999 - before the era of forced 'overtaking' zones and DRS straights all surrounded in acres of tarmac run-off areas. As a result it manages to hang onto some traditional values - high speed corners and gravel traps whilst still adhering to modern safety measures. Despite the praise and the lists of positives, there are a few problems to take into consideration. Two of those problems are immediately apparent, those being the first two corners - they are more of a design flair than a functional piece of road. But the rest of the lap is considerably better. 

From turn four the track starts to feel less like an engineering project pieced together in the back of some German chap's shed and more like the racetrack it is supposed to be. The high speed sweeping bends of turns 5 and 6 feed into the double apex adventure that is the 7 and 8 complex before lining up for the turn nine hairpin. The remainder of the lap features a pair of decreasing radius corners, corners that as a child I was never too pleased to see when the circuit appeared in a video game - because I'd never get them right. The penultimate turn being a particular pain, there are seemingly an infinite number of possible racing lines - none of which I managed to get right before giving up to go in search of cake. To finish the lap off there are two long straights, installed before long straights were a default part of track design. 

One the most distinctive properties of the Malaysian race weekend is the weather - cue ice cream jokes - monsoon rainstorms are an omnipresent threat in the tropics. Rain that can give Red Bull what they want, some degree of equalisation - but probably not in their favour. Conventionally, wet weather can help bring a field closer together because the maximum pace is denoted by the conditions rather than the maximum pace of the car, but not all teams are affected in the same way. The drive-ability of the Renault engine and it's unpredictable power delivery may make Red Bulls struggles even more challenging, should the clouds burst.

The Form Guide


Well, Mercedes should win, and win easily - on a big, fast, open circuit like Sepang should allow the team to stretch their legs a little more than the parkland track in Australia. Wet or dry both Hamilton and Rosberg should be the unstoppable class of the field once more - sprinting off to an easy one-two. Unless reliability plays a part of course...

Ferrari and Williams are in a world of their own in an ongoing battle for second place - in Australia Ferrari scored first blow as Vettel took the final place on the podium. Williams were a driver down however, and Massa had traffic issues and a sub-optimal race strategy cost Felipe score that third place. In Malaysia who knows which way this fight is going to fall - but I suspect Ferrari might just have the edge in that scrap.

Then there is the rest of the field - all crammed in the jumbled world of the mid-field. A world which is a slightly angrier now that Red Bull are sitting right in the middle of it all. Red Bull are on the same pace of their junior squadron and rivals Lotus and Sauber - we never quite saw where Lotus fit in the equation as neither car completed a racing lap in Australia. But Sauber appear to have the legs on most of them especially due to the Ferrari engine being a significant step forward on the 2014 iteration.  

As for everyone else, they seem to have carved out their own little rut nowhere near anyone else. Force India are just off the back of the main group while they get up to speed on their development program, and eventually they'll regroup with everyone else. McLaren will still be a little further back, as they too are still catching up - but the signs are that the chassis is good and they difficulties are down to not being able to run the engine at max power just to make sure it doesn't demolish itself. Then there is Manor - both Mehri and Stevens aim to take part in some kind of timed session, getting the cars up and running for the first time. They might not make it inside the 107% qualifying time, but it would be nice to see them on track.

Malaysia has to make up for Australia's shortcomings - we might have more cars on the grid and more cars at the end of the race. There may be storms, some involving rain and some involving angered team principles - both options might be equally interesting...



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