Welcome to season five of coverage here at Blog HQ, and like all the seasons that have come before 2015 will be a menagerie of ranting, rambling and general nonsense. Because in the end there are hundreds of sites to visit if you want concise, well written but ultimately dull commentary, here things are different, probably not better, but different. I would love to say that the shiny new season is waiting to get started in the heat of Melbourne under an atmosphere of anticipation and excitement. But instead the series is dominated by the ongoing saga of off-track discussions - mostly emanating from the Sauber camp. In a recent post I noted that former reserve drive Giedo van der Garde was in a series of discussions involving lawyers about the fact that he was still contracted to drive despite being replaced. What ensued and is still ensuing is not so much an discussion, more of an argument - still involving lawyers. In short Sauber have four drivers contracted to drive two cars... taking the sponsorship money without offering the race seat. There are bound to be more complexities and subtleties involved - after all, if it was easy we wouldn't need lawyers to sort it all out...
Yesterday the court found in favour of Giedo, declaring that Sauber had in fact, for lack of a better word - ballsed the whole thing up. Sauber then appealed the decision, and that too was thrown out - so we've got to the point where we know Sauber have contracted themselves into a corner. The phase they are in now is sorting out who sits in the car this weekend, and deciding what to do with Sauber now we have established it has all gone a bit pear shaped. There are tweets fluttering about as the case continues suggesting that Sauber are in danger of being in contempt of court if they start ignoring the decision. But with more contracts than cars, and some of those contracts are in turn connected to lucrative sponsorship deals - my not-so-expert conclusion is that whatever transpires is going to be seriously bad news for Sauber. We don't want the team to crumble and vanish from the grid, but there has to be an acceptance that they screwed up here considerably. Which doesn't make sense to be considering that Monisha - the team principle is herself a lawyer...
This rather unfortunate story was offset by some far better news as Manor have made it to Australia and have two cars and drivers in the Melbourne paddock. The car understandably does look a little primitive and plain with no sponsors - but even with a white and red livery it still looks more imaginative than Sauber or McLaren's efforts. But before your collective hopes are raised for the underdog story to end all underdog stories - there are a couple of unfortunate reality checks to consider. This is not a new 2015 car, it is a 2014 car with a few updates to make it legal, therefore it is in all likelihood going to lose relative lap time to the next slowest car. Meaning it will be last, by a considerable margin - barring a complete miracle, one which would be worth so many bonus points. But things recently got a whole lot worse, or they might depending on how much weight certain online rumours have. The most recent rumour is that the Manor team might not be able to get the cars running this weekend, because of a potential software issue with the engine. If this turns out to be true it will be another sad development in already blighted season.
But all the complaints and controversy should fade in the background once engines are activated and Australia erupts to the soundtrack of 20 (hopefully) F1 racecars. Because of it's slightly unique configuration appearing so early in the calendar, the visit to Albert Park often leaves us, the people looking on, with more questions than answers. Yes we know Mercedes are going to be ominously strong again, and Manor will probably be at the back. But the mass of cars in between could finish in any order. Nor is Australia representative of the rest of the year. In 2014, McLaren ended up with a double podium, signs of a recovery from a challenging 2013 perhaps... well no, that didn't really materialise. We also saw Catheram within touching distance of the mid-field - and that ended up even worse. So whatever happens on the parkland circuit, here's hoping it is more enthralling than the events in the courtroom - because it's going to be just as enlightening.
Albert Park - Melbourne, Australia
Whilst we may not know who will be driving or how many cars bill be running this weekend, there is one thing that is confirmed and that is where it will all be taking place. The Albert Park circuit has host the opening round of the season for a while now, since I first turned on the TV for the race at least - with a couple of exceptions as Bahrain took over. But we don't speak about those... especially 2010. The track is set on public roads through the park - hence the name really - and thus means that there are plenty of walls and tyre barriers to crash into, if anyone feels like it. Several of these walls are concrete - so McLaren need to be a little careful, they can't really afford another concussed driver. Australia should host the first race, the fans are mad and there is a packed schedule of support race action including the brilliant Aussie V8's. Bahrain could never match that in the dull no-mans-land of the desert - even if the race itself does come up to scratch.
The track itself is simple and effective, none of that Tilke over-designed bollocks getting in the way. No everlasting straights, no using seven corners when one will do, no nonsense. You could argue it isn't as challenging as it should be for the 'best' drivers in the world, but no-one would really listen to you... just like no one really listens to this corner of the internet. However even if the layout doesn't contain complex corner sequences and elevation changes - there are plenty of things to catch an unwary driver out. Firstly the walls, of which there are many, and those walls are not too far away. 2014 bonus points champion Valtteri Bottas found out much to his peril the closeness of the walls as he popped a tyre off the rim in last season's race by getting too close. One of the problems is that the Australians - a comical sort that they are - have painted the walls green. Camouflaging them against the grass - I have no idea why, but it just adds a little to the argument: "I never even saw the wall before it hit me".
Secondly, space - not the big empty thing outside the atmosphere = but room to manoeuvre. These are public roads most of the time, not a purpose built Tilkedrome with acres of space to play with, and as a result the track is narrower than ususal. Not quite Monaco or Suzuka narrow - but nowhere near the width of Sepang or Sochi. Therefore the risk of contact is higher and picking the correct line is more important. Finally there is the matter of visibility, this is a park and it has many trees in it, trees which hang over the track and cast shadows in certain sectors. Also because of the time zone difference between Australia and the F1 economic epicentre that is Europe - the local start time is quite late. This is to make the race less inconvenient for TV audiences over here - after the Bianchi incident in Suzuka where the race was running out of usable daylight the FIA ruled that all races, regardless of location, should start at least four hours before sunset. In Australia the start time has been moved an hour earlier as a result - to leave 3hrs 45minutes before sunset... the eagle eyed among you will note that is indeed still less than four hours, but since when to the FIA bother with the details. Therefore, late in the race light levels can fall, made worse by the overhanging foliage - meaning we might see a few mistakes creep in if the race is pushed towards a late finish due to safety cars or red flags.
The Form Guide...
There are very few certainties about the start of this season and very few guesses to make about who will finish where. As we all know winter testing can't really be used as a basis for the results of the first round. We can assume however that Mercedes will be fastest, by a comfortable margin, and that they won't really need to demonstrate the true pace of the car because no-one will be close enough to threaten.
The other main story is how well McLaren are going to do - the Honda reunion hasn't gone too well thus far with many reliability problems throughout testing. So not too many people are expecting both cars - or even one of them - getting to the chequered flag on Sunday. If one of those cars happens to be caught out by one of those cleverly disguised walls, then McLaren might have to delve a little deeper into their driver pool to find a replacement as the chassis already concussed one pilot.
We'll probably not find out who will be sitting in the Sauber until Saturday afternoon - local time - but whoever it is may struggle to match the pace the team showed in testing. I think their times were slightly too flattering for the performance they actually have available to them. In reality I would probably estimate Sauber to be duelling with Force India and F1's fastest crèche at Toro Rosso. It will be interesting to see Verstappen Jnr compete at this level, but for some reason I foresee him knocking wheels off his new car in the race - probably with Nasr... if Nasr is in the car.
As for Manor, well - getting this far was a feat of determination and resilience and everyone would thouroughly enjoy seeing the little team back on the grid following their difficulties. There are a couple of hurdles to get through yet of course, firstly this software issue - which hasn't been as widely reported as I thought it might be during the long process of writing this out. Hopefully that means that it might be corrected and the cars can be run. If they are working, the second challenge is the 107% time in qualifying. In order to make it onto the grid on raceday, the drivers need to demonstrate that they can set times within this margin. HRT failed in this task in their last two Australian GP events before vanishing altogether. Normally Manor in their former guises didn't have a problem with this rule, but as the car is only a modified 2014 entry and the other teams will be faster - the 107% time becomes a more imposing challenge. If they do get the cars running and make it through qualifying it will be a magnificent achievement, and worth several bonus points.
Even though the build up to 2015 has been cursed with an injured driver, a turbulent court case and the constant argument over financial distribution, the anticipation remains. Anticipation for those five red lights to go out on Sunday morning - or afternoon when I play the recording back - because finally the 2015 season has arrived.
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