Round 1 - Australia 2015: Qualifying

Greetings Internet, 

There are times when you sit back and stare at something you've known for such a long time, something that has played an almost pivotal role in your life throughout that time span and don't recognise what it has become. Sometimes you are surprised at the new, exciting heights that thing has grown and evolved into stepping out of the shadow of it's predecessor. But then there are times when that thing becomes twisted, deformed even - a contorted and disfigured manifestation of it's former self. As I booted up the file for qualifying, the first televisual broadcast of the new season, I sensed that the latter clause is becoming more prevalent. The news and online discussions have considerably followed the struggles, challenges and acts of desperation choking the progress up and down the grid. The fact that a crash and a legal dispute have been the overwhelmingly dominant topics of conversation in the pre-season build up are indicative of the state of play. Normally team developments and performance clues make the headlines - like Mercedes' resurgence in 2014 or William's resurrection from the back row. Now it's all been negative, normally I comment that the despairing news was only carved to inject drama and intrigue into a world seemingly lacking in both. I hoped that once the tyre-warming blankets came off and the green light at the start of qualifying came on, the negativity would be blown away with the cobwebs and the raw competitiveness would take over. 

Sadly that isn't really the case, even now as I sit here in the corner of the sofa that is effectively Blog HQ, I don't recognise the sport I first followed in 1997. Even at the first race, in front of a TV audience of millions, a live audience of close to 100,000 spectators the championship looks lonely and barren. Sponsors are shying away from the sport - leaving bare and unimaginative liveries, even the national championship with a fraction of the advertising potential is better supported than what is supposed to be the highest echelon of open wheel competition on the planet. While the front of the grid is drowning in resources and money - everyone else is starving and staring into the abyss. At this moment in time it looks as if only 15 cars will have a realistic chance of completing the race, and out of those there will be other retirements from mechanical failures or accidents. The only good news story was Manor F1 dragging themselves away from the edge of the abyss and back into the paddock - and even that didn't go to plan as software difficulties anchored both cars to the garage. And that is where they will stay this weekend. We can't even look forward to someone being able to challenge Mercedes, because that gap has grown yet further. At least I suppose the middle 10 cars on the grid might be worth watching tomorrow.

Q1

Like most things this year - even before the year had really started - things began with the inevitable bout of bad news as it was revealed that Manor F1 would not be taking part in qualifying. The process of making the 2015 ECU package work with the legacy components on the retrofitted 2014 car was taking too long and the cars couldn't join the fray. There was a sense of reluctance smothering the pit lane, as here at the first qualifying session of 2015 - nobody elected to take to the track as soon as the track was opened. A few minutes later Toro Rosso Toddler Max Verstappen did finally break the wall of silence - having first asking his parents if he was allowed out to play. The youngster was followed out by Felipe Nasr... who had to ask the lawyers if he was allowed out to play instead. Of the pair, it was the Brazilian who set the faster time - which of course would please the people back at Sauber because Nasr is their richer driver and the one they'd least like to replace with Van Der Garde when that affair kicks off again.

At the start it seemed as if the drivers were allergic to the tarmac - especially in turn one, Hamilton, Hulkenberg and Maldonado all spending a little time in the grass. The opposite end of the circuit was also proving to be a little challenging as Carlos Sainz jnr, Bottas and Rosberg all had difficulties - Sainz being the only one to spin the car. With Manor not competing, only three cars were to be eliminated from Q1 - and one of those three looked to be Daniil Kyvat who's Red Bull was undergoing repairs after a small fire damaged some wiring in FP3. But as Russian fixed the mechanics with his infamous death-stare the likelihood of that car setting a time increased. On the medium tyres the field was quite mixed for a while, mostly due to so many mistakes being made - Nasr was still in the top ten, and Ferrari had a provisional 1-2... only because Mercedes handn't given it full beans yet, and Ferrari were the first team to use the soft tyre.

In a feat of hollow inevitability, Mercedes swept to the front of the grid, on slower tyres than their immediate competitors - even the youthful exuberance of Little Max could only manage third place. His parents did tell him not to mess with the older children, but then again he was also told to not talk to strangers and he talked to the SKY TV crew... I suppose the very young do often have a rebellions streak. Down at the other end of the grid you'd find McLaren both Jenson Button and substitute Magnussen was fighting over last place - but at least they wouldn't start last as Kvyat was still in the garage... That didn't last too much longer because the Death-Stare paid off, the damage was fixed and the car sent out onto the track. While McLaren were anchored to the bottom of the timesheet - Kvyat's return was more of a problem for Ericsson in the Sauber. A decent time for the Russian would relegate the swede... Even with the poor form Renault have started 2015 with a Red Bull would have no difficulty outpacing a Sauber. Ericsson appealed the demotion into relegation with a final lap but the appeal was denied, so he and the McLaren team were relegated... I'm sure McLaren used to be fast at one point in time...oops.

Q2

The second phase of qualifying suffered less reluctance than Q1, probably because there is less time available to play with. Again it was Sauber who took to the track first and set the initial pace, a pace that was easily outpaced by Valterri Bottas in the Williams. It was thought that Williams would be the closest competitor to Mercedes in 2015, with various improvements that would help close the immense deficit to the leader. So when Bottas sat at the top of the pile, 1.6s clear of the Sauber it looked promising... until Hamilton went 1.2s faster than the Finn. Rosberg was only a couple of tenths slower than Lewis and supported a brutally dominant Mercedes 1-2.

But Q2 isn't really about how far ahead Mercedes are, it is all about qualifying for the top ten - and the cut-off point for that sits right in the middle of the mid-field. Q1 takes out Manor (when they are running), McLaren and some other poor bugger who wasn't quite fast enough. Q2 is more closely contested - the top three teams should be safe so what we are left with is 9 cars arguing over four available spaces. Of those 9 cars, the performance differences are intriguingly small, especially considering that Red Bull, that team that used to win everything, are in the midst of the melee. In Q1 it looked like Toro Rosso would lead that charge - and Carlos Sainz appeared to be on track once again to carry that through into Q2. Their closes rival wasn't the sister team over at Red Bull - but Lotus, like Williams they were experiencing the difference a Mercedes engine makes over the weaker Renault version. Grosjean and Maldonado were inside the top ten - what a difference a year makes.

In the shadow of all the legal wrangling, Sauber do appear to have a car with a bit of pace behind it, as Felipe Nasr also negotiated his way into the top ten with his final effort of the session. Force India haven't really received a mention thus far and that is primarily because they hadn't really done anything and were languishing at the bottom of the timings. But considering that they missed most of winter testing - it can be expected, then again despite running the current chassis in 33% of the testing days - they completed more laps than McLaren. Red Bull were also in relegation, because if Horner is to be believed Renault have dropped the ball again. However local chap Ricciardo was able to creep into the top ten with his final lap... knocking Nasr out in the process. Little Max Verstappen lost time on his final lap - he said it was due to an oversteer moment in turn five. Replays showed that it was in fact in turn four, but we can excuse that as Max hasn't learned all the numbers yet.

Q3

Ten cars left and only eight positions to fight over - the front row was bought in advance by Mercedes and nothing would wrestle it from their grasp. This was further confirmed when Hamilton effortlessly produced the fastest time of the day 1.3 seconds clear of Sebastian Vettel's Ferrari. Even Rosberg in the other silver car had nothing in response - locking up and running wide in the penultimate corner abandoning his opening lap. Valtteri Bottas also had brake difficulties on his first lap - locking the inside front in turn one and turn three, the Finn also abandoned the lap likely as a result of flat-spotting the tyres on that failed run. So after the first half, only eight cars set a time and Lewis was over a second out in front. Pre-season form appeared accurate in the sense that Ferrari and Williams were in a mini-league of their own behind Mercedes, but ahead of everyone else. 

All ten cars left the garage to take decide their position on the grid for the first race of 2015 - even though two cars had the opportunity to take pole position there was the sense that the result was set in stone after Q1. Kimi Raikkonen was able to close the gap on Vettel - after being hammered by Alonso in 2014 the non-communicative Finn could do with a closer intra-team battle. It also lowered the risk of anyone splitting the red cars on the grid, it didn't lower the risk of being beaten by someone else however - and that's where Williams came in. Bottas on a new set of tyres was on track to knock one Ferrari off the second row with his last effort. However Valtteri ran wide in the final corner dropping into 5th place - behind the Ferrari. Felipe Massa however in the second of the white cars had a mistake free lap and achieved what Bottas failed to do - putting the car third, best of the non-factory Mercedes runners. 

After abandoning his first lap Rosberg had one chance to defeat Hamilton - and his sector times showed that the German was on course for a personal best time. These sector times proved to be right - as Rosberg completed the lap with his fastest time of the weekend... the only problem was that his fastest time was still several tenths slower than Hamilton's. To rub salt into the wounds - Lewis managed to go even faster carving a gargantuan 0.6s lead over Nico and 1.3 over the next best team... It's safe to say that Mercedes are more powerful and untouchable than ever before at the moment... but it is early days yet.

The 2015 Bonus Points System

After Valtteri Bottas' success in 2014 it is time to reset the tables and start allocating points for a new season - there has been a slight change to the way these points are assigned this time around. There is no longer a separate penalty points table, mostly because it was meaningless and didn't really amount to anything of reasonable importance. Instead penalty points will be represented as negative bonus points or anti-points, simply so that all the scores are on a single table to make my life a little easier.

10pts - Felipe Massa - When all eyes were pointed at Bottas to lead the charge against Ferrari it was the ex-Ferrari driver that stole the place at the end
8pts - Lewis Hamilton - Well that turned out to be a terrifying display of dominance, even over the chap who won the pole position trophy last season
6pts - Carlos Sainz Jnr - The only rookie inside the top ten, starting on the same grid slot as a certain Russian chap with a scary face did in 2014
5pts - Manor F1 - Get five points for making it to Australia, would have been the full ten if they got the cars running as well
4pts - Valtteri Bottas - Scores some points for keeping it out of the wall after a significant slide through the final corner. 
3pts - Grosjean/Maldonado - What a difference a year makes - last on the grid in 2014 and now the top ten with both cars...
2pts - Daniel Ricciardo - Could have been a little embarassing had the Australian not pipped Sainz for lead Red Bull backed honours
1pt - Fernando Alonso - Reports have come in to say despite not being in a car at the moment he is travelling faster than the on track McLarens

-3pts - Sauber - What on earth has been going on there, a complete legal mess, contracting four drivers for two seats - not that anyone appears to remember that Sutil exists in this debarcle because he isn't fighting in the same way Giedo is. 
-2pts - McLaren - You've not got this one right have we, comfortably last is not a good omen for a team with two champions in is (under normal circumstances). Yes Honda are new but they've had an entire year to research and develop the engine in alliance with McLaren
-1pt - Martin Brundle - Gets an anti-point for stating that there was no point Manor turning up if they weren't going to run. I don't think that the team left the factory in Yorkshire with the intention of sitting in the garage rather than racing. 


Looking to Tomorrow

This time last year there were polls asking people how many cars would cross the line as the reliability of the new hybrid systems was an unknown. Instead there should be polls on how many cars will actually start the race, because at the time of writing it is unclear whether Bottas will start due to a suspected back injury picked up in Q2. So I fully anticipate a raft of conspiracies and investigations into another bewildering mystery... Then we have McLaren who sit on the back row facing a 58 lap voyage into the unknown, when the team have only managed to complete 12 laps in a single unbroken stint this weekend... So from the 18 starters three more look to be immediately in jeopardy before the start of the formation lap. Add into that a set of retirements from incidents and accidents and it makes you wonder how many cars will be running at the end. 

None of this really matters to Mercedes who will be in a different time zone, they will have won the Malaysian GP before the third place car crosses the line in Australia. Williams and Ferrari will be in a fight over that final spot - even if Bottas can't start the race - it does look like Raikkonen is still slower than his team-mate, but his longer runs in practice were more competitive. In the middle of the pack anything can happen - Maldonado, Nasr and Little Max have all been questioned for their aggressive racing stances in their various championships. Put them all in the same part of the grid and wings and wheels may become an endangered species. It looks as if Ericsson will be playing the loneliest role tomorrow once the McLarens break down behind him and if he finishes will probably be last. 

But despite the gloomy inevitability of it all, this still is the Australian GP and the Albert park circuit does have the potential to throw in a few surprises and a safety car or two for good measure. If this was the state of play before the Hungarian or Russian GP's then I'd reckon the folk who edit the highlight reels would be struggling to find anything to include. Australia is different, and finally, we could find something to dispel the stagnant aura of negativity surrounding the grid at the moment... well perhaps.