Round 17: USA - Preview

Howdy Y'all folk o' the Internet,

The sport takes a three week break after a relatively easy going weekend in Russia and everything starts to go to hell, and I imagine, sitting in the centre of the conflagration laughing manically is a certain small overlord. I could sit here and attempt to decipher and digest the financial complexities that have brought us up to this point in time - but I won't. Simply because I'd need a degree in Economics,Business or sinister corporate dealings - and neither of my degrees involve those matters. The story down at Caterham is a the very definition of a mass of confusion, lies and mismanagement. While Tony Fernandes and Kolles (and the mysterious unidentified investors) have been passing the blame back and forth like an unwanted child - it's the team employees that have suffered. The latest chapter in this miserable saga saw Caterham fall into the hands of the administrators and will not be competing in Austin this weekend or Brazil after that. We all knew that Caterham were in a spot of bother, starting with handing over to the mysterious investors and appointing Kolles and making Christjan Albers team principle. After one appearance on TV Albers has become very absent - then we find out that, out of nowhere, some Romanian Ex-Footballer who had a minor position in the Caterham team was suddenly promoted to team principle... I wonder sometimes. 

If that debarcle wasn't bad enough, it was doubled by finding out that Marussia had also fallen into administration, they too will miss the US GP. Marussia have had a season of meteoric contrasts - taking their first ever points in Monaco and then the shocking accident in Japan. Like Caterham it is financial struggles at the core of their decline. Which is where Bernie comes into play - this sort of thing is precisely what the chap wants - developing a sense of antipathy towards those teams at the back saying all kinds of terrible things like "it would be better off without them" and "they bring nothing to the sport". This doesn't help matters, and frankly is a scathingly unfair assessment of the smaller teams joining the fray, those smaller teams are magnificent and we do need them. Yes Caterham, Marussia and formerly HRT were a long way off the nearest mid-field car - but that was a feature of the resources they have available to them, and the fact that they joined under the impression that costs would be reigned in. Which never happened - something that comes back to some really complex economical things and some really odd Bernie related things. 

To round off the hat-trick of disappointment even before the first laps are completed in Austin - engine penalties have shrunken the grid yet further... at least in Qualifying. The general consensus is that Vettel will not contend Qualifying, instead opting for a new power unit... because A) the Renault engines are a bit pants and B) somebody thought it was a grand idea to make the final race worth double points.... damn it Bernie.    

The Venue

As it has been pointed out elsewhere on the internet, there is a certain irony in bringing the smallest grid of cars in many a season to a US state famous for doing things big. At the Circuit of the Americas in Austin, Texas - that design philosophy has been carried forth into the configuration of the layout, in some respects. Unlike several of the other tracks to recently appear on the calendar the people behind COTA seem to have learned from some of the more traditional racing circuits in Europe. There are times when the 'cut and paste' approach to patching together iconic elements of existing tracks doesn't quite knit together seamlessly. On the other hand there are cases when the Texan idea of taking a concept and then making it disproportionately bigger actually pays off. While in effect this is a Frankenstein's monster of cloned track segments from another continent it manages to work well... mostly, while remaining over-the-top and typically American. 

Turn one brings this concept to life immediately, here in Europe we like circuits with elevation changes - translate this into Texan and Yee Haw we got 'urselves a mountain. Replacing a few subtle gradients with a gigantic monolith of a climb up to the apex of the first corner, the centre of the corner sits at the summit of this ascent. COTA also borrows a concept seen at the short lived Indian GP - where the corner widens in the braking zone, in an effort to encourage more alternative lines and thus overtaking. Alas the scurge of DRS has more often than not over-ridden the necessity for innovative corner design. To avoid altitude sickness, the track plummets down towards turn two, a simple medium speed right hander sitting in a little compression in the road. 

The remainder of sector one is a very copy and paste affair - this time they wanted something reminiscent of the Maggotts/Becketts sequence here in little old England. This sequence starts off in a very similar manner to the source material - four high speed corners, each slightly tighter than the last - just like it is at home. But doing things in moderation doesn't play too well with the Texans and three more corners are now appended to the end of the sequence - so we now have a seven/eight corner (depending on how it is counted) decreasing radius slalom. There is room here to complain about originality and things of that nature - but I can't really - because it is a brilliant section of road. Yes it isn't the real Silverstone nor is it the esses of Suzuka but it is pretty good. Just to finish the whole thing off and make it just that little bit more "'murican" the run-off's are decorated with stars and stripes, how very patrotic. You wouldn't get that sort of thing at Silverstone - you'd get a chip butty, some tea and a tent... obviously the better option.

At the end of the seemingly endless slalom we come to the second hairpin at the furthest end of the track - a hairpin put in place so that the track doesn't just keep going until it reaches Canada. This hairpin exits onto one of the default features of any emerging racetrack - a really long straight bit. This straight is 1km long, which is oddly metric for a country that deals mainly in imperial measurements. 0.62 miles later we reach turn 12, a reasonably generic corner that provides a decent overtaking spot. It also serves as an entry to the next phase of cutting and pasting other circuit designs - and this time what they've inadvertently done is created something deeply confusing. Firstly we have a flattened out clone of Hockenheim' stadium section - thus by flattening it removes the interesting camber of the original. It shouldn't work - and on the simulated version I have available to me it is clunky and horrible. But amidst all of that the racing here had been surprisingly good - in it's debut race most of the action happened in this final phase of the lap. Bewildering. 

The next track up for the cloning treatment is Istanbul and it's infamous turn 8 (because it wasn't given a real name). But unlike most of the other features around the track it isn't bigger or more grandiose than the original. While it may seem like all four apexes had been copied over, in effect only two or three of them count and it is less of a challenge than the original. It is still a respectable corner in isolation, but in direct comparison to it's inspiration is does fall a comfortable distance short. Towards the very end of the lap the penultimate corner looks on paper to be a simple medium speed bend - but it does catch many people out - it also generates plenty of imagery of sideways racecars. The lap is completed with quite a generic corner put in place to tie the two ends of the track together. The sort of corner you use when you are running out of space in the living room and track pieces to finish of your scalextric circuit. 

The Form Guide

Well, it seems everyone has given up frankly because it is all starting to fall apart - Mercedes have already locked out the constructors championship and the drivers title is to be decided internally. No-one else can get a look in unless the silver arrows go off course. Financial struggles have truncated the back of the grid with Caterham and Marussia in trouble, and Vettel has already effectively demoted himself to the back of the grid. At this race - I could turn up in a hire car and get on the podium. 

In all reality this should be another Mercedes parade at the front, one hopefully where we actually get to see Hamilton and Rosberg fight it out for the entire distance - not just the first corner. Williams, moreso Bottas should be their closest contenders - Valtteri was quick in the terrible incarnation of the Williams car he was burdened with in 2013 so this time things should be better. Massa shouldn't be too far behind - last year he out-qualified Alonso but was moved back on the grid by the team on the grounds of a 'required' gearbox change. I suspect Red Bull, Ferrari and McLaren will be all lumped together in the fight for the title of "3rd quickest car". 

On the fringes of the mid-field I imagine Toro Rosso and Force India will be in their own isolated battle just behind the group ahead. Margins could be tight but I think it is only the minor points these two will be fighting over. Sauber and Lotus probably won't be able to do anything to challenge their pace given their form all season. But Lotus have considered trialling a new nosecone design in the first practice session - one without the asymmetric twin-tusk configuration. Of course this weekend both themselves and Sauber can be a little experimental if they wished because there won't be any challengers behind them waiting to capitalise on any mistakes. 

Due to the decrease in grid population this weekend, the relegation zone cut off points for qualifying will need to be be adjusted. Because if there is one more car opting for a new power unit and starting from the back - there will be no cars to eliminate in Q1. The current best guess is that four cars will be demoted from Q1 and from Q2 - to leave a top ten shootout at the end of the day. Of course with Vettel already sitting it out on Saturday - only three other cars will be relegated. This means one Sauber or Lotus is virtually guaranteed to be promoted into Q2...Q3 is still a bit of long shot for those guys really. 

Even with a depleted field and continuous domination, it's time to giddy up in the good ol' wild west. 

Round 16: Russia 2014 - Review

Greetings Internet, 

Well, Russia your time as a GP débutante has now come to it's conclusion and I don't think the events of the 53 laps this afternoons foray into the unknown will not live too long in the memories of those looking on. To think that the top four positions away from the line were the same at the fall of the chequered flag tells the majority of the story from the first ever Russian GP. The other thing that needs sorting out is the goings on within the Mercedes team - their car was enormously dominant once again as we were treated to another demonstration of precisely how fast the car can go. But as has been the case for far too many races we have been comprehensively denied an ultimate battle for the lead. Generally if one of those silver cars goes missing for whatever reason, the challenge for ultimate honours completely vanishes - and we end up with another rendition of Singapore. The two cars have barely shared the same corner for more than a few moments since Bahrain - Spa ended at lap two, Hungary came close a decent fight but ran out of laps. Rosberg jumped out of the way in Monza and broke down in Singapore... It has started to become an annoyance - today Nico had another chance to strike up a battle and regain some points and immediately messed the whole thing up... damn it.

The Race

Having not seen any of the morning races I had no idea how the track evolution progressed into the final day of this Russian GP, but I had heard positive things about the contests. Even the GP2 race on Saturday provided some quality racing - but in each instance the contest started to stagnate after the flurry of action at the start. At that point a safety car is needed to put an end to the stagnation and inject some more energy and unpredictability. 

At the start the majority of the grid headed down to the kink of turn one in unison - Ferrari drivers making a slightly better start to those around them. It nearly cost Raikkonen as he went round the outside of Kvyat through the first corner and almost ended up in the outside wall. Ricciardo in the main team almost put Magnussen in the inside wall - it seemed that even though these modern fancy circuits have so much space, people always wan't a little bit more. Before everyone reached turn two, the first braking zone - Rosberg was on the inside looking at the lead, and for whatever reason went in far too deep and severely locked both front tyres. Nico scampered across the run-off and took the lead by cheating effectively. He wasn't the only one - several cars were taking some alternate lines and whether you won or lost in this chaotic melee of track limit violations determined the whole race outlook. It was almost three wide through turn three on the opening lap with Vergne several shades of sideways alongside Sebastian Vettel and Magnussen to the inside of the pair of them. 

Vergne and Magnussen managed to stay two wide for the next three corners, in each case the McLaren running off the circuit - it seemed it was a complete free for all in terms of track limits. In fact considering this was a completely new venue - as pointed out in commentary - it is surprising to note that counter measures were not fundamentally built into the circuit design to stop this behaviour. Nico was informed over the radio to allow Hamilton back through because he made the most grandiose shortcut - but the German informed the team that his comprehensive error in turn two had left him with two very damaged tyres. He had to pit at the end of the first lap, and was informed that his new strategy involved running the entire race on a single set of tyres. This was now effectively a non-stop race on a set of Pirellis... like that would have happened last season.

Back on track and it appeared all of the Red Bull sponsored cars had converged on each other - Kvyat had fallen backwards while Vergne made an impressive start. with Vettel and Riccardo in close attention. The two main team drivers made it look far too easy when overtaking the local driver - with the DRS in effect Daniil had no defence on the run into turn 13. It appeared Toro Rosso in general were struggling a lot more than their qualifying pace suggested they would. After getting the better of Magnussen on the opening lap - Vergne was under pressure to retain that position. Kevin took the place in turn two but Vergne went two wide on the outside all the way round the monolithic turn three to retake the place. Alas it didn't help - like Kvyat, Vergne had no defence to a DRS fuelled charge, and Magnussen was clear and gone down the road. It got worse for Vergne when the Red Bull crusaders appeared at his rear wing - first Vettel and then Ricciardo dispatched the Frenchman and set off after their next target. However Ricciardo was a little displeased with Vettel's pace and in a roundabout way asked to be allowed past. Just like the last time Ricciardo requested assistance the lines went quiet and Vettel refused to yield.

At the very back of the field Rosberg was making progress - being careful not to overuse the tyres as they did have to make it to the end of the race. Peculiarly he was being followed by Felipe Massa who also made a lap one stop for no apparent reason - but the paring were mirroring the Red Bull drivers and tag-teaming their way through the field. Their first target was Marcus Ericsson in 15th place, naturally the Caterham had nothing in it's arsenal to defend against two very quick Mercedes powered cars. This was soon followed up by unchallenged passes on Grosjean and Gutierrez in their march back towards the points paying positions. If Rosberg was going to the front, then Massa was making sure he tagged along - this plan started to come apart slightly when they came across Sergio Perez. Because a Mercedes powered Force India couldn't be brushed aside in a straight line like everything else.  Rosberg had to throw the Mercedes down the inside to make the pass stick in turn two as the DRS didn't get him all the way alongside to begin with.

Because this was only to be a one stop race, on a track on which tyre degradation rates were a bit of an unknown, so there was no clearly defined pit-stop window. Drivers came in when they felt the tyres were going away, in order to minimise any form of time loss - of course with a single stop it is all the more important for that stop to go well. It didn't for Ferrari and for Fernando Alonso... even more reason for the Spaniard to seek for a seat in a new team for 2015. The car dropped off the jack and had to be lifted again, when the stop was complete, for some reason a second jack was brought in as Fernando was trying to leave. Fortunately Alonso had the presence of mind not to floor it or the man with the new jack would have been mowed down. This delay cost Fernando fifth place to Kevin Magnussen, but joined just in front of Vettel. Kvyat also had a slightly slow stop and fell out of the points - the metaphorical wheels were falling of Toro Rosso's collective wagon this afternoon.

After events in the supporting categories it seemed that due to limited access to the side of the track, and stopped car would cause a safety car due to allow the car to be cleared. To be honest this was a race that definitively needed a safety car to spice things up - even more so with Rosberg nearing the front as other cars stopped and rejoined behind him. For a split second it seemed like 
we might get one as Adrian Sutil was pointing in the wrong direction on the exit of turn two. Replays showed that it was another incident between Lotus and Sauber - this time it wasn't the erratic Venezuelan who was responsible. Grosjean made an attempted pass on Sutil but the two cars managed to converge on the exit and the German was span round. Sutil got the car going again, and were spared the safety car... damn. Grosjean was handed a 5 second pit stop penalty for the contact.

After all the stops were completed, Rosberg was now in third place - how dominant does a car have to be to drive through the field on one set of tyres faster than all but one car in the field. Nico had now found himself in Valtteri Bottas' slipstream - conventionally a Williams is nearly impossible to overtake because of how fast it is in a straight line. But today nothing was getting in Rosberg's way - even on tyres that had now done over half the race. Again at the end of the DRS section of track into turn two Nico placed the car on the inside and refused to give Bottas any space to defend the position on the exit. This now meant that Rosberg was second - effectively going from last to second in 30 laps without stopping. Massa who was following Rosberg early in the race until he got caught behind Perez, was trying to emulate the Mercedes' drivers recovery progress but on the softer tyre. This plan didn't work out and he had to pit for a second time and dropped outside of the points.

As a demonstration of how processional the race had become - with just short of 20 laps remaining in the race - the top nine positions were now settled, with the only changes and racing happening outside the points. Several battles were forming on track but none of them showed any sign of developing. The most interesting - if it really took place - was between Alonso and Vettel, the Ferrari driver had Sebastian in close company. Given how brilliant some of their duels have been over the season and in previous years it should have been brilliant. But the minimal top speed of the Red Bull prevented Vettel from making a serious charge against Fernando and thus the places stagnated. Having lost his first racing buddy, Felipe Massa paired up with Sergio Perez in an effort to make it back into the points. They came up upon Vergne's Toro Rosso who was still struggling for pace, first Perez took the place in turn two, opening the door for Massa down up the inside of the long turn three. Kvyat was having a similar duel with the other Force India of Hulkenberg - having lost the place to the German, Daniil made a last ditch effort to steal it back under braking. Kvyat locked up significantly and flat-spotted the left front, while these tyres were not wearing out - they were very vulnerable to being locked. Kvyat had to pit to remove the damaged tyres that were vibrating badly - while the death state might have faded yesterday... I suspect it has returned today.

In the final ten laps of the race, the only remaining battle was between Massa and Perez, Felipe trying to wrestle the final points place from the Mexican. However for some reason, none of this was actually broadcast on television, there were some shots of the Alonso/Vettel chase but that wasn't going anywhere. In fact a lot of the TV coverage in this final phase was devoted to showing Bernie having a chat with Vladimir Putin who had just arrived at the track with a personal army of bodyguards. Putin should have turned up for the support races in the morning, they were far more fun... so I'm told as I haven't seen them yet. 

When the chequered flag dropped at the end of the race it marked another uncontested victory for Lewis Hamilton as Rosberg continues to do his best to throw the championship away. In a demonstration of the unassailable advantage Mercedes have, Nico still finished second passing the entire field in 31 laps... in many ways it was a crushing display. Valtteri Bottas remains the fastest car from the remainder of the pack taking the final podium position ahead of Jenson Button again demonstrating to the team he is worth a seat in 2015. Magnussen finished in 5th despite never really seeing another car after he passed Vergne at the beginning of the race. Alonso and Vettel crossed the line without exchanging positions in their battle for 6th and 7th places. A second Ferrari/Red Bull pairing came home in 8th and 9th, Ricciardo much further ahead of Raikkonen in this pairing. The final points place was held be Perez who kept Massa at bay.

The Bonus Points Championship Points Winners

Well, today might not have been the most enthralling of races with the positions decided long before the final flag was dropped. It was one of many demonstrations of the brutal advantage Mercedes have over everyone else, and advantage that has given them the easiest constructors championship victory since Schumacher and Ferrari wiped the floor with everyone. But points need to be awarded and they are as follows. 

• 25pts - Nico Rosberg - Even through that is a Mercedes, 52 laps on one tyre set and last to second in 32... 
• 18pts - Valtteri Bottas - Still the Finn is the one keeping the most pressure on the Mercedes team
• 15pts - Felipe Massa - Aside from the bizarre early stop Felipe almost recovered from a poor qualifying to take home some points
• 12pts - Jenson Button - A good job in the McLaren today, almost had a podium before Roberg defeated everyone.
• 10pts - Jean-Eric Vergne - Easily making the pass of the race round the outside of Magnussen in turn three, why is he being fired again?
• 8pts - Kevin Magnussen - For his part in the opening lap battle with Vergne again - two wide for three corners without making any contact
• 6pts - Fernando Alonso - Well done for being sharp enough to know what was happening at the stop, instead of instinctively pulling away into the jack man
• 4pts - Lewis Hamilton - He did win the race but it was completely uncontested and effortlessly easy
• 2pts - Romain Grosjean - Here's two points for hitting something, because sod all else was happening
• 1pt - Kamui Kobayashi - Gets a point for being so chirpy in the face of such adversity, being asked to retire the car without an explanation at the time and the uncertainty of retaining his seat for Austin and beyond

Looking ahead to America

With three races to go we are running out of events for Rosberg to redeem himself - hopelessly slow in Japan and ruining his only overtaking effort today has cost him many points in the championship. Since the incident at Spa he has lost 46 points to Hamilton, and at this rate it seems unlikely that the German will be able to recover. The US GP in Austin provides the next chapter in this ongoing saga, and even though it is three weeks away the podium places have virtually already been decided, considering that Bottas was uncharacteristically strong last season in a Williams that had no right being near the points. Give him a car that is capable of reaching the podium this time and 3rd place looks very plausible. Anything higher will require something to go very wrong at Mercedes. 

The Circuit of the Americas in Austin is sort of a menagerie of features of other famous F1 circuits - such as the maggots/Becketts sequence form Silverstone, just made bigger (because it is Texas after all), and Istanbul's mega turn 8 (this time smaller). Sometimes this works out - sector one is magnificent, but the twisted replication of Hokkenheim's stadium section doesn't really work too well. It was a lot of fun in it's debut year in 2012, so here's hoping it can deliver what Sochi and so many recent races couldn't - a no holds barred showdown between Rosberg and Hamilton.

Round 16: Russia 2014 - Qualifying

Greetings Internet, 

Yesterday we saw the Sochi Autodrom in all it's completeness, a venue that has received a lot of positivity from those few folk who have been driving around the place over the past two days. The circuit is a considerably improvement on the initial footage we saw during the test events held at the circuit a few weeks before the F1 ensemble descends on the edge of the black sea. In many respects the Sochi circuit surpasses it's moral predecessor in the Valencian circuit - it doesn't have any of those needless chicanes merely painted onto the floor with some curbing dotted about the place. Sochi does have the advantage of the Olympic relics populating the backdrop - more entertaining than a couple of boat sheds for the America's cup. All this positivity is, well, confusing because the track map looks really simplistic with a lot of seemingly identical corners, it doesn't have that one feature or sector you look forward too each lap. But it seems to still work - Alonso pointed out in a post session interview that there are many corners that are essentially clones but each one has to be approached slightly differently. It is baffling - I had a go on the most recent simulator model and the Ferrari driver has a point - and turn 13 is devious and evil, but not in a terrible Oschersleben turn one kind of way. 

What effect did all of this have on qualifying today, well it seemed as if the teams and drivers were themselves baffled at the way the track evolved and changed throughout the day. Normally a brand new track evolves comprehensively in it's first weekend - as the construction dust and oils are swept clear. It appears as if this circuit isn't obeying that rule - nor is it accumulating rubber from the support series to accelerate track evolution. This all meant Mercedes had their advantage trimmed by the chasing pack under threat from Williams and McLaren. 

Qualifying 

It became clear people were unsure about how qualifying was going to go because Hamilton came out of the pits on the softer compound tyres, usually reserved for avoiding relegation. Since when would a Mercedes need to avoid relegation - but it came down to the fact that there is little degradation in Sochi. There is going to be some very confused folk sitting in the Pirelli shed wondering why their tyres haven't disintegrated as per usual. Nevertheless it was Hamilton who went out and set the initial pace. Only to be beaten by Rosberg to the tune of three quarters of a second, Hamilton returned serve with his second run - overtaking Nico by 0.01s. It appeared drivers could complete multiple runs on the tyres before they stopped giving out their grip. Jenson Button was having a really strong day once more - sending a message to Ron Dennis in the process with regards to 2015. Jenson was in third on the slower tyres ahead of Ferraris, Williams and Red Bulls all using the softer option.

At the back of the field, the battle to avoid relegation became a concern to the Williams team - having threatened the second row throughout practice - Massa was in a spot of bother. Felipe thought it was a fuel pressure issue, and the team thought it was engine related - either way Massa was down on power. Given that power is really the Williams' only weapon it meant that he was a long way of the pace. At the end of the session Felipe was consigned to relegation. This meant that there was only really one more space in relegation for this first part of qualifying. It was going to be duel between Lotus and Sauber to avoid that fate, but difficulties for Maldonado's battery unit meant he too was doomed to relegation. But the story of the bottom half of the grid once more was Marcus Ericsson for Caterham - who for some reason has stopped being terrible. It turns out that it was an issue with the brake-by-wire system that had been curtailing his pace, a similar problem that has irritated Raikkonen at times. But Marcus outqualified everyone in the bottom division - including Massa and Maldonado. Their drives tomorrow will be interesting.

Q2

In the second part of qualifying, Nico Rosberg set the early pace, while Hamilton's early lap was very unspectacular down in 10th. Valtteri Bottas out of nowhere was then able to defeat the Mercedes team and go fastest, albeit by only 0.008s. McLaren were also getting in on the action, only a matter of tenths off the lead - it was turning into a vast Mercedes powered get together at the front of the grid, and for the time being Hamilton wasn't invited. Alas the Briton took exception and unleashed a bag of vengeful pace to leave a 6 tenth chasm between himself and the rest of the Mercedes family. 

The Renault powered cars were beginning to struggle, especially the main Red Bull team themselves - Vettel was trapped down in 16th place over four seconds off the pace of Hamilton. He was also close to two seconds slower than his team-mate as Ricciardo was much closer to making it into the top ten - but the bigger surprise was that the junior Red Bull team were making a much better go of things - more so in the hands of Daniil Kvyat. The Russian on home turf was demolishing the rest of the Red Bull enterprise. With Mercedes powered cars showing well today it was odd to see Force India under pressure at the opposite end of the top ten - a later lap by Fernando Alonso demoted Hulkenberg meaning neither car was in the promotion places. In the closing minutes of the session Vettel attempted to make it through but despite knocking two seconds off his lap time he was still too slow to make it into the top ten. To make matters worse, the time he was aiming for was held by Ricciardo...

Q3

The final part of qualifying started off with a series of quizzically slow lap times - despite the track temperature remaining constant and weather conditions being stable. Few of the initial times would have made it through Q2 and some of them at the bottom end of the top ten would have been beaten by the majority of the GP2 grid. It appeared this was because the drivers were planning on running the entire session on the same set of tyres because the wear rates are so low. The only problem being that outer surface of the compound can overheat and lose a lot of grip in the final corners, thus requiring a cool-down lap between flying laps. In this phase Rosberg claimed the provisional pole position with a one second advantage over Hamilton who ended 6th. Button and Bottas at this point were filling the remaining podium places.

Once everyone had cleared this opening phase Hamilton once more found that pace he showed earlier on in the day and re-took the lead. But Valtteri Bottas was applying some major pressure to the factory Mercedes team sitting in third only 0.006s behind Rosberg. Could this be a repeat of the Austrian GP where Mercedes found themselves off pole position at the hands of a Williams - these newer circuits not sitting well with the dominating team. Jenson Button was just keeping the top three in sight a few tenths further back, but the story of the show was Daniil Kvyat for Toro Rosso - beating the main team and Vergne alike. The Russian was now the lead non-Mercedes in 5th coming into the final efforts.

At the very end of the session Rosberg was going very quickly in his efforts to prevent Hamilton running away with this championship rounds. The German crossed the line with an improved time, but unfortunately for him Lewis had moved the goalpost a little too far clinching pole position it seemed - who else could challenge the Mercedes pairing. Well Valtteri Bottas gave it a damn good go - the Finn set the fastest first sector of the day, before following that up with the fastest second sector. I imagine there were many nervous faces on the Mercedes pitwall. Bottas approached the final sector effectively on pole position, but the thermal effect on the rear tyres was causing a problem, Valtteri was struggling to hang onto the rear of the car in the final couple of corners. Pole was still in reach however until the last corner when Bottas got very sideways and drifted off the track. It was an impressive effort but only managed third place in the end. 

The Bonus Points Championship Points Winners

At the end of the first ever qualifying session in Russia in the middle of the Sochi Olympic park we've seen that Mercedes, Williams and McLaren are the main forces to be reckoned with. But it's the points that matter, and here are the results.

• 10pts - Daniil Kvyat - The Russian scores his best ever grid position and is the lead Red Bull liveried car and lead non-Mercedes. A good day
• 8pts - Valtteri Bottas - So so very close to taking his first pole position only defeated by the final corner and those tyres.
• 6pts - Jenson Button - Delivering a clear message to McLaren with another very strong performance today.
• 5pts - Marcus Ericsson - How much of an improvement has this chap been through in the past races, from losing to Mehri in FP1 to beating Massa in qualifying in Russia alone.
• 4pts - Lewis Hamilton - Takes the first ever pole position in Russia has to equate a few points.
• 3pts - Kevin Magnussen - A late effort in Q3 helped offset the incoming penalty he has for a gearbox change 
• 2pts - Nico Rosberg - Reasonably close to Lewis time, here's hoping for an actual race long duel tomorrow
• 1pt - Jolyon Palmer - Takes the the GP2 championship title today 

Looking to Tomorrow

Just how will the Sochi Autodrom perform as a race venue is a bit of a mystery - the GP3 race in the morning was a processional affair after a rather hectic opening lap. But in contrast the GP2 race was mega, but part of that could be the equality of the cars and cars that can run closely and race with each other. One thing that came out of that GP2 race was that it can take some time to clear a car from the side of the road - Stefano Colleti broke down and required a safety car to clear the track. The safety car intervention also demonstrated how easily tyres can go cold during the wait - both Izawa and Evans ran wide on the restart because of this. 

A safety car could be considered likely tomorrow because of the nature of the track - not in terms of causing accidents but simple car recovery. In fact throughout all of practice, support racing and qualifying I haven't seen anyone hit the walls - so in all likelihood it would require cars to hit each other to create an accident situation. It is going to be an interesting race tomorrow, both in terms of another chance for a grand battle at the front - one which lasted seconds in Suzuka and even less than that in Singapore - but further back too. Massa, Hulkenberg and Magnussen all have poor grid slots as a result of penalties and mechanical difficulties so could make their way forward. Can you overtake in Sochi... well I don't know you could in GP2 but not in GP3... so there is only one way to find out. 

Round 16: Russia 2014 - Preview

Greetings Internet, 

It has been a difficult week for everyone involved with the sport, only made more difficult with the short turn around from that weekend in Japan to a completely new venue in the Sochi Olympic park. We all know that this part of Europe has been in the news at the moment with the ongoing aggravation between Russia and Ukraine. Like recent visits to Bahrain many people called for the cancellation of this event - but F1 has taken the decision to stay out of local politics, as will this corner of the internet because I am certainly not qualified to deal with the political situation. Naturally concerns in the paddock lie firmly with the situation faced by Jules Bianchi - the current information tells us that Jules suffered a brain injury similar in nature to the one suffered by Richard Hammond after his crash in the rocket car. It is a broad spectrum diagnosis which depends entirely on the severity, which like Hammond could result in full recovery with time. Marussia have nominated Alex Rossi as the reserve driver for this weekend on the official entry list, but haven't decided on the level of team's participation in light of recent events.

In other, less important news - the layout for the 2016 Azerbaijan GP in Baku was revealed, and it looks... different. Sector one is dull and... well, poor - but the rest of the lap could be fun - a 2.2km full speed conclusion to the lap is concerning - an estimated 340km/h speed on a street course sounds unwise. Something that is even more intriguing is that this is to be entitled the European GP... but Baku is geographically in Asia... Bernie is good at geography. But there is a precedent for this sort of business - a Swiss GP was held in France decades ago, and the Luxembourg GP was held in Germany in the late 90's. Even the San Marino GP had always been held in Italy. Turns out F1 can't do geography. 

In team news Lotus have finally confirmed that they will run Mercedes engines in 2015 - so Grosjean can stop complaining about the woeful performance of the Renault currently in this car. In Singapore the Frenchman was apoplectic with the car cutting out in qualifying. Also the ongoing saga between Vettel, Ferrari and Alonso taking another turn - as Alonso couldn't confirm whether he'd be on the grid at all in 2015. Another rumour suggests that both Alonso and Vettel would end up in McLaren... but who knows how that'll play out.

The Venue

Sochi is completely new so, we have no real pre-conceptions of how the race is going to turn out. All of the pre-race test footage from the venue was far from promising - it looked bland and dull, if track was viewed on a historic black and white television you wouldn't notice the difference. But as the teams rolled into the Olympic park this week the track was subject to a magnificent transformation. It looks bright and vibrant, far more like a proper racing circuit. Just like the winter Olympics themselves there were fears of facilities being up to standard only to find every stadium and arena looking spectacular. This race track is no different - it looks the part, and the pit complex looks like it has fallen straight out of a video game (hopefully means the modding community can put it into rFactor soon enough). From the initial comments made by the drivers on the track walks today have likened it inevitably to Valencia and Korea - more so to the former. Of course this isn't a promising comparison - because Valencia wasn't wonderful even though the finale was an impressive spectacle. 

Looking at the layout it is difficult to tell what each corner looks like - there is a prototype track I've been using in the simulator but that was only based on the released map earlier in the year. Turn one is very similar to the Valencian street circulit - only with no room for error, you could also compare it to the first turn at the Townsville street circuit in Australia. I think this corner exists to prevent the field arriving at turn two all at the same time on the opening lap. However turn two is considerably further down the road - so there is plenty of time for everyone to fan out again. When everyone does reach turn two they will be closing in on 200mph for what appears to be a typical 90 degree street track corner. Although this doesn't really count as a street track, as it is permanent facility in the confines of a public area. Turn three is the key focal point of the track, a huge semi-circular sweeping corner which will be very quick. It does remind me of the stadium turn at the most recent Houston street track - a corner that will remain infamous for ending Dario Franchitti's indycar career with a violent accident. Sochi's version is much wider and more open so the chances of a replication is fortunately very unlikely.

Turn four seems like a clone of turn two, taking the cars away from the circle turn and towards the main Olympic stadium - turn five looks to be a slightly more open version of turn four. It's corners like this that do make the place seem a little uninspiring - but they appear more open and friendly than some of the needless painted chicanes the Spanish venue was cursed with. But after this track looks like it picks up some pace as it rounds close to the Ice Hockey stadium - I think it is anyway. Turns 6 and 7 are more open than their predecessors - similar to the chicane at the start of the final sector in Valencia - two of the best corners on the entire lap - so these might prove to be rather fun. This sector is concluded by another seemingly generic 90 degree corner onto the back 'straight'.

The similarities with Valencia continue out the back of the circuit with a sweeping, curving back 'straight' - considered a straight by someone who has never owned a ruler - as it will host one of the two DRS zones. Hopefully the curvature of the track won't disrupt the slipstream and overtaking chances at the end of the section, because turn 11 could be a prime passing zone. While the first two sectors of the lap do show plenty of promise and are interesting even in the rough prototype I have access to (there are probably newer versions out there I just haven't tried them yet), the final part of the lap looks a little forced. It seems as if Tilke and his infinite wisdom once more has reverted to type and tried to place too many corners in too little space. Turns 11 and 12 form a slow chicane with no run-off space on the exit - so if something happens here there will have to be a safety car intervention. After a slight kink, mirroring turn one in radius if not in speed we have another chicane in the opposite direction. The second apex being more open than the first. To bring the lap to a conclusion we have two more 90 degree corners onto the pit straight. 

The Form Guide

Even though we have no previous data or estimations on how each team will perform it is a reasonable assumption to assume that Mercedes will be on top as usual. Potentially this sort of track will favour Hamilton, but we said the same thing about Singapore and qualifying there came down to 0.007s. As to who will be chasing the Mercedes the closest and I would suggest that Williams will be very competitive - as they were in Singapore and Canada. But overall I expect margins at the front - barring Mercedes - to be very close between Red Bull, Williams and Ferrari in the competition for the final spot on the podium. The straights here don't really seem long enough to draw McLaren into that particular fight, same with Force India - their battle will be for the minor points alongside Toro Rosso and their local racer Daniil Kvyat... I wonder whether the death stare might subside slightly on home ground.

The lower mid-field will be a battle between Sauber and Lotus - and could fall into either team's hands. Lotus have said that the configuration of the circuit won't hurt their car as much as other venues have this season - so potentially they could have the advantage in that battle. At the very back decisions have yet to be made about whether Marussia will field a full team - or withdraw completely in respect of Jules Bianchi. I hope Marussia do compete as a sign of solidarity to their injured driver. After the tragic accident of Allan Simonsen at Le Mans in 2013 - Aston Martin racing offered to retire their cars, but were asked to continue by Allan's family. 

I do think, and hope there will be some immediate procedural changes this weekend, with respect of safety car utilisation. A recommendation from the track officials has pointed out that if possible cars with mechanical dramas should pull over to the right hand side of the track - as this is the easiest recovery position. Access from the outer support road is reported to be slower - I do hope that a car abandoned on the outside would trigger a safety car rather than trying to get personnel to cross the track under mere yellows. It does mean that anyone hitting the wall in turn one will be on the outside of the track in a damaged car - and recovery will be difficult. Stepping straight into the unknown so soon after a sombre weekend isn't ideal - but Russia seem to have prepared a capable facility. 

Is F1 still safe

Greetings Internet, 

In light of recent events it stands to reason that questions are going to be asked and explanations sought in the search for understanding. Jean Todt has called for an enquiry to discover what the contributing factors were in the moments leading up to the final conclusion on that Sunday morning. Therefore we have to ask the question, whether F1 has slipped into a period of complacency with regard to driver safety - or where increasingly risky driving patterns are becoming more inherent within the sport and it's junior categories. We have to assess which factors came together allowing such an incident to occur at the highest level of motorsport, and what solutions can be put in place to ensure something like this doesn't happen again. 

Throughout recent history - measured as the time from the first race I sat and set eyes upon in 1997 to present day - severe injuries for drivers have thankfully been exceptionally rare. In that same time span there have been many dramatic incidents, from the 13 car 98 Spa pile-up, to both BAR's rolling over in the middle of Eau Rouge and Kubica's infamous crash in Canada - in each of these cases no-one suffered any significant harm. Yes there have been injuries, Panis in Canada 97, Schumacher in Britain 99, and Burti in Spa 01. But life threatening events have been very rare, only Massa in 09 after being hit by a loose spring from Barrichello's Brawn GP car during qualifying for the Hungarian GP caused real concern. So with such a promising safety record, one that has been continually improving, how have we found ourselves in this situation. The way I see it, any severe incident can only come about as a result of a 'perfect storm' of circumstances, because conventional accidents have been anticipated by the designers and people who set the crash tolerance regulations. The outcome of each accident is the result of a combination of four contributing factors:

The Car

Car design is at the core of injury prevention, because it is often the only constant from on incident to the next. This includes the composition of the car itself in terms of the central monocoque safety cell, and the features designed to restrain the driver. These design principles have resulted in vehicles that have been able to withstand heavy impacts with the barriers and with each other. The example of Kubica's accident is a relevant one, as in that case the car was essentially stripped down to the safety cell - all of the crash structures absorbed the energy effectively. As it has been said on many reports, core car design principles - sound as they are - could not of averted the outcome of Bianchi's accident. Primarily because cars are built on the basis that the designers know what surfaces the car will likely impact and at what angle - be this a concrete wall like in Canada or Sochi, Armco like Monaco, tyre barriers or another racing car. None of those design considerations take into account an impact with a recovery vehicle because the likelihood is so small - hence the 'perfect storm' effect. 

Modifications have been suggested in the light of this incident, focussing on head protection as it is the driver's head which is the most at risk. This is not a new topic - after serious incidents in 2009, firstly with the death of Henry Surtees in a F2 race at Brands Hatch. Surtees was struck by a wheel that was cast off from a separate crash in front of him. A week later Felipe Massa was also struck by debris and was lucky to survive. No modifications were made to open wheel formulae design regulations. Then in 2012 the startline accident at the Belgian GP raised the point of head protection once more, when Romain Grosjean's car went over the front of Fernando Alonso's car, dangerously close to his head. This time plans were put in place for the testing of cockpit canopies, similar to those used on fighter jets. Experiments were held where tyres were fired against a test canopy - but the train of thought went no further. Williams' director of vehicle performance Rob Smedley has come forward and suggested that installing such a canopy wouldn't be difficult. Naturally there are operational difficulties when considering using a canopy, such as how it fairs in the rain and how easy would it be to extract a driver following an accident - especially if the car is upside down. 

Within the context of Bianchi's accident - don't think it is the physical strength or design of the cars that can be called into question. I would suggest that the way in which the car collapse is one of the reasons Jules survived the hit, because if the roll hoop and engine cover hadn't broken away the car would not have continued  on it's trajectory towards the barriers, instead coming to rest underneath the crane. A canopy solution is a reaction to a problem that doesn't exist - responding with a grandiose gesture instead of delving deeper into the root cause of the accident and correcting it. Something that F1 has been excessively guilty of in recent seasons.

The Track

Circuit design has continually improved with new design philosophies, the most of the tracks I first saw in 1997 have been completely refurbished since. Introductions of tarmac run-off areas and improved barrier technology have prevented many accidents from being more serious. For example Sergio Perez crashed into a Tech-Pro barrier in Monaco's Nouvelle chicane, in the past that would have been a couple of tyre stacks roped together. The advanced barrier prevented lasting injuries. In the US concrete walls on ovals are now lined with compressible structures to lower impact forces. New Tilke tracks are defined by acres of run-off space, where you would have enough time for tea and a toastie before you'd actually hit something. 

But on some of the older race tracks on the calendar such as Suzuka larger modifications to the track are limited by the layout and physical geography of the area. The Dunlop curve in question backs immediately onto the exit of 130R - therefore run-off cannot be extended in this area. But if adding more run-off was the solution, then what do we do with street circuits - which while conventionally slower, have no room for error. The proposed layout for the 2016 race in Baku is quoting speeds of 340km/h on a street circuit - surely this is far riskier than anything Suzuka has to offer. Just like the cars, the configuration of the track can't be blamed for this event - Dunlop corner has been like that for decades, and over the course of those decades there have been wet races. Yet this is the first incident of it's kind since 1994 in which Martin Brundle spun in the wet at Suzuka - not at Dunlop however - and made contact with a marshal attending another incident. 

Procedures

In the end it comes down to how the incidents were handled, and how the competitive nature of the drivers on track can take over. Several things combined to create the outcome we were faced with, the worsening conditions, tyres at the end of a stint, and the use of a heavy recovery vehicle. Of course the predominant question is how a racing car can be in the situation where it can make contact with the tractor. Mobile cranes have been used on timeless occasions to extract cars following an accident, it is standard procedure - the problem is how the rest of the field is controlled while the recovery process is being carried out. Depending on the nature of the incident being cleared away there are two procedural solutions that can be used. One being the safety car, brought out to slow the field down to allow the marshals and crews to work safely. The second option is more localised, using double waved yellow flags - which means that when the other drivers pass through the sector they have to "slow down and be prepared to stop". Now we all know that nobody actually obeys that to the letter of the law - and only make a measurable reduction in pace. An article by Gary Hartstein says that drivers were shown to curtail their speed by 0.3s - any more than that and they would lose ground to their competitors. 

Given that there were marshals and recovery vehicles on the exit of a wet high speed corner, a lift of 0.3 seconds is not going to really slow anyone down to a safe speed and minimise the risk. I'm not going to suggest that Bianchi span off because it was his own fault - because every car is doing the same thing, it is a de-facto standard effectively, one which is considered acceptable by the stewards. This comes back to complacency really, the concept of believing nothing will go wrong and therefore failing to enforce the yellow flag rules. Alonso ran into an incident in Brazil 2003 also in the wet - didn't lift for yellow flags because the sport doesn't really mind too much if you don't - and crashed heavily into the debris left by a previous accident. He was unable to make the podium and the race was red flagged. In fact in the same race, six cars individually span off on the same corner and hit the same tyre wall - and back then a heavy recovery truck was put onto the track to clear up when there was a clear risk of a repeat accident. This is the problem that brought about the consequences of Sunday's race - race control seems to treat driver responses to all levels of yellow flag situation the same. A small lift and you're doing enough - more than that and you lose out to those around you. 

Is there a solution

So if fighter-pilot canopies and universal tarmac run-offs are not the answer, what is, and will we ever see it put into practice. It seems while F1 is messing around with double points, DRS and standing restart rules they often forget that there are more pressing regulations that need to be fixed. These big announcements grab the headlines and fuel Bernie's bank accounts - drawing in interest. Smaller internal changes don't have quite the same rappor with the audience and therefore are ignored. The governance of clearing away incidents has been cited as a problem for 20yrs - Brundle always points out that the field should be neutralised whenever a recovery crane is on site. Since then nothing has really happened - Liuzzi hit a similar tractor (at a much, much slower pace) in 2007 at the Nurburgring - nothing was done then. There is no problem with the use of a recovery crane, in a corner where another incident was likely Sutil's car couldn't be left there - but the enforcement of double yellows is so weak that cars were still passing at almost racing speed. This is the bit that is not acceptable, especially given the conditions and the likelihood of a second crash, the field has to be slowed down.

At Le Mans this year, the ACO introduced the idea of a 'slow zone' a concept that didn't seem feasible when announced - but worked well in the race. Effectively it enforces safety car speeds for a localised sector of the track, so even if some one did spin - like Ericsson did - they wouldn't be going fast enough to have the same accident. It does need to be enforced correctly, such that is isn't possible to cheat the system - with the yellow flags we've seen drivers raise a hand to TV cameras to acknowledge the warnings but keep their right foot planted. This sort of thing needs to be eradicated - the WTCC finale in Macau was quickly turned into a farce by drivers not fully appreciating the flags, and marshals in attendance were put severely at risk. 

Therefore we still have two options in the event of an incident that requires a crane or other recovery vehicle - option 1: throw the safety car, which adds a large delay to the race but is very easy to implement. In Indycar the safety car is introduced for every stationary car as a precaution - so a race can have upwards of 5 or 6 safety car events. But their safety car durations can be smaller - in Sinagpore there was a 20 minute delay for some front wing debris, where is in the US that would take two or three laps to clear. Option 2 is to introduce a slow-zone around the crash site and allow racing on the rest of the lap, this would reduce the number of safety car interventions per season but is far more complex to implement. In order to prevent anyone from taking advantage the system would have to be automated - like the DRS activation - applying a speed limiting function when the car is in the zone. It becomes more complex at the point where the zone starts - getting each car to decelerate down to the restricted speed so that cars in a battle don't run into each other as their speeds are over-ridden. For now I think option 1 is more feasible and certainly achievable with immediate effect, as no additional systems need to be introduced. But in the long run a move to option 2 might be more effective, it will take more time to develop and validate.

So in conclusion if anyone is still here this far down an extensive document, I can suggest that F1 is still safe, the cars and tracks are built to exacting standards for safety. Standards that can be rigorously tested and verified, meaning the technical aspects of the sport can be measured and assessed for their capabilities. It comes down to the human and sporting aspects of the regulations - the authorities have become complacent over the years because of the very high safety standards of the cars and venues. Therefore they've let certain things slip in the meantime, procedural solutions and racing regulations haven't kept up - buried under unnecessary gimmicks and showmanship. No enforcement of yellow flag rules in race conditions, and an "it'll be alright" attitude has put marshals at risk and now put a driver in intensive care. Enough with this canopy business, fix the problems that exist today and instead of focussing on answers to questions nobody is asking.

Round 15 - Japan 2014: Race

Greetings Internet, 

It has been a very turbulent day in Japan and one that has ended on a very muted and concerned note in the closing laps of the race. The positive is that Felipe Massa sustained a severe head injury in qualifying for the 2009 Hungarian GP, and he pulled through to compete again and is doing well for Williams. So we can hope that Jules Bianchi can follow the same road to recovery following the incident this morning.

As threatened rainfall did have a significant influence on this race when the leading edge of Typhoon Phanfone brushed the circuit before it is scheduled to make landfall later on. In the end it was this rainfall that brought about the worrying conclusion of the race when cars on worn intermediate tyres were subjected to a fresh batch of rain. At the start of the day it seemed unlikely that there would be any racing at all when parts of the track were submerged and rivers were flowing across the circuit and down the pit-lane. 

The Race

Like many people I was following twitter last night to track the incoming path of the typhoon and what the teams were reporting trackside with regards to the weather. Then when I activated the BBC recording earlier on today I was moderately unsurprised to see that it was in fact raining, but it wasn't severe enough to force the race into cancellation. Some parts of the track were naturally more wet than others and Sergio Perez had a couple of off-track moments on the lap to the grid - managing to avoid damage on all occasions. But with only ten minutes to go before the start the rain intensified significantly and this forced the race to start under the safety car. There were a couple of laps circulating at the lower pace, and the visibility was exceptionally poor especially on the back straight from Spoon to 130R. Marcus Ericsson aquaplaned in the final corner and span into the gravel, the marshals were able push the Caterham out and back into the race. At this point it was decided that the rain was too heavy to continue and the race was suspended while the band of precipitation cleared. With the forecast looking increasingly heavy a restart looked unlikely... I had flashbacks to the WEC 6-hours of Fuji which only lasted for 16 safety car laps before being cancelled.

As always when a rain delay surfaces all we could do was sit and wait - and go make breakfast - oh and check whether Kimi had paid a visit to the Ferrari ice cream stash. Fortunately the delay wasn't too long as a break in the weather was spotted on the radar, so off we went again under the safety car. However Fernando Alonso's Ferrari didn't quite agree with that sentiment - it only made it to turn five before calling it a day. It appeared the electronics shut off bringing the car to a halt before a single lap of green flag running. The safety car remained out for several laps, despite assertions by Lewis Hamilton that it was safe to race. However Lewis was second in the train, and therefore didn't have to face the wall of spray that cars deep in traffic would have to deal with. It is this visibility problem that limits running rather than track conditions or surface running. It is the reason why cars often have to wait until it is dry enough for intermediates before the safety car is pulled in. Shame really, but on lap ten things finally got started.

On the restart, or more accurately the only real start, Jenson Button and Pastor Maldonado immediately opted to pit for intermediate tyres at the first opportunity. Jenson has often made brilliant calls in terms of tyre selection in challenging conditions - but as Maldonado fell off the track on a couple of occasions the decision seemed all the more risky. Back with the cars that stayed out it appeared most were keeping their distance from each other, just so that they could see where they were going in the spray. A couple of drivers made an early charge starting with Sebastian Vettel who had a go at Kevin Magnussen in Kobayashi corner. The Caterham may not be able to keep the reputation of the hairpin alive in the hands of Kamui himself, but we still had overtaking there. The superior traction of the McLaren allowed him to power away from the Red Bull and kept the Red Bull behind. A second Red Bull liveried car was also losing ground as Daniil Kvyat became a victim of the Force India power when being overtaken by Nico Hulkenberg before 130R.

Wet conditions can reshuffle the pecking order in terms of performance, and Williams were certainly feeling the thick end of that particular stick. Their car with inherently low downforce creating high top speed - doesn't work too well when downforce becomes dominant factor. This became a particular problem for Felipe Massa - because the Red Bulls were closing in on the Brazilian. Massa was clearly struggling for grip and was losing so much time to the chasing pack, and when Vettel came knocking he had little weaponry available to defend his position. Having not made it stick on Magnussen at the hairpin, Vettel made a more definitive move on Felipe to take the place - Massa didn't have anywhere near enough traction to fight back. The extent of Williams difficulties were far more apparent when Ricciardo on the following lap could drive round the outside of Massa's car in the final part of the esses - in the dry a pass there on equal terms would be miraculous. 

Some of the leading runners, including Kimi Raikkonen and Felipe Massa decided enough was enough and moved onto the intermediate tyres. What this did was promote Jenson Button up the field into 7th place... but was even more impressive was that Jules Bianchi in the Marussia was running in 6th place. In front of them the Red Bull assault roared up behind Valtteri Bottas - just like Massa there was nothing Bottas could do. At first Vettel went round the outside of the Finn at the hairpin which was seeing more action. Then to make matters worse Ricciardo, in a carbon copy of the pass on Massa, was able to drive round the outside of the Willams in turn six. Over the next couple of laps Red Bull brought their cars in for new tyres along with Bottas' Williams. All of this was making Jenson's early call look even more inspired as he cycled through into fourth place, but Bianchi was in a podium position, in a Marussia...outstanding. Alas it wasn't to last as the Frenchman also had to make his visit to the pit-lane and relinquish that lofty postion.

At this point the two Mercedes cars were light-years ahead of the rest of Jenson Button in third place. So when the time came for their stops they were easily able to pit and rejoin out in front - in an effort to steal the lead in the pit-stop phase Hamilton ran slightly wide in turn one but recovered without losing too much time. Kevin Magnussen on the other hand had a more entertaining off at the same corner, completing a very elegant 360 degree spin when rejoining the track. Lewis efforts were not strong enough to take the lead, as he rejoined in second place. It appeared the duel for the lead would be very on - as a radio call from the team informed Lewis that there would be no more significant rain before then end of the race. Giving him enough time to charge after Rosberg - but that forecast was made with low certainty.

While we were watching a brewing struggle outside the points between Gutierrez, Maldonado, Sutil and Vergne - in which we saw Maldonado overtake a Sauber without crashing into it. Perhaps is there was a Mexican in the other seat I daresay several wheels would be pointing in different directions. It appeared that the two cars at the front were getting closer together, we cut to a end of a move in which Lewis almost made up the inside of the Casio Triangle but wasn't in range. In the end Rosberg's lead was on borrowed time, because the German was really starting to lose grip and lap speed in respect to his chasing team-mate. His defensive position became even more tenuous after the last car changed onto intermediate tyres - meaning the track was now dry enough for DRS to be activated. Giving Hamilton even more weaponry to go on the offensive against Nico. Lewis made another visit to the tarmac run-off area in turn one, losing some of the ground he made up - but he was easily able to reel in the German in a matter of a few corners.

On the main straight, the grand battle we had been looking forward to in Monza - and didn't get, and then again in Singapore - which also failed to appear, was set in motion... By turn to that gargantuan tussle was over... this is to be the season of anti-climaxes and unfulfilled hopes. Hamilton simply opened the DRS and sailed round the outside of Nico in the first corner - it was an overtake that did take skill with little room for error. But it was nowhere near as impressive as the BBC commentary team made it out to be - Lewis was on the drier gripper part of the track and Rosberg didn't have enough grip to force the issue. What it meant was that Hamilton vanished off into the distance while we waited for the second round of stops as the intermediate tyres came close to the end of their lifespan.

Those pit stops turned out to be the undoing of Jenson's podium hopes - because when the McLaren driver came in they had to change steering wheels. The resultant 6.9s stop demoted Jenson down behind the two Red Bull drivers promoting Vettel up into only accessible podium position. Daniel Ricciardo cycled through into the lead after both Mercedes' cars pitted - and there were a couple of radio messages to Lewis suggesting that the Australian might try and stretch the life of his tyres to the end of the race - or at least until the next band of rain. Almost as that sentiment crossed the airwaves the BBC reported that the intensity of rainfall in the pits had intensified. Intriguingly the lap-times continued to improve - Vettel and Button trading faster laps with each other, but the track was getting wetter. Cars were starting to spend a lot more time a little closer to the scenery  - Maldonado and Gutierrez both found themselves scampering across the tarmac run-off at turn one. Sebastian Vettel had a trip across the gravel in turn three costing him his advantage over the Jenson Button/Ricciardo battle. 

Ricciardo attempted a pass on Jenson at the hairpin, but like the Vettel/Magnussen fight earlier - the McLaren had enough traction on the exit to defend the position. As the rain continued to intensify Jenson made another tyre condition call and headed in for wets, a decision that had the race unfolded differently could have given him back the podium spot. 

On the exit of the Dunlop corner, rivers were starting to form and aquaplaning becoming a problem - especially on these intermediate tyres at the end of their lifespan. Adrian Sutil collected one of these rivers and span out of the race, the Sauber collected the outside barrier and required recovery...

This caused a problem, Felipe Massa has said the race should have been put under safety car earlier - and that the handling of Sutil's crash could have been better. But the circumstances are what they were and things can't re-write that. Given the increased intensity of rainfall and the characteristics of the Dunlop curve it isn't beyond the realms of possibility that another car would go off in a similar place. This is precisely why taking the time to repair the barrier in silverstone after Raikkonen punched a hole in the wall after his accident was essential. Today while rescue crews were removing Sutil's car, Jules Bianchi hit the same river and span off in the same place. In lieu of television coverage for obvious reasons it is difficult to say precisely what took place. Adrian Sutil's post race interview revealed the events to be harrowing - he seemed deeply shaken by what he saw as he waited by the side of his stricken car. I haven't seen such shock on a driver's face since Giancarlo Fisichella's interview following the news of Alan Simonson's crash at Le Mans.

From the evidence, reports and imagery available the only conclusions I can draw is that Bianchi's car made contact with the recovery crane taking Sutil's car away. The Marussia went underneath the tractor and the underside of the crane severed the top of Bianchi's car including the roll hoop and safety structures. Bianchi suffered what has been diagnosed as a severe head injury as a result of the accident - recent news indicates that Jules has come out of surgery and is breathing on his own which is a major positive considering the magnitude of the damage. If the chassis of the tractor was a few inches lower I dread to think what the outcome will be. The sport hasn't lost a driver in a race since 1994 and we don't want that figure to be updated.

The race was red flagged while Bianchi was taken to hospital and would not be restarted. Therefore Hamilton was declared the victor ahead of Rosberg and Vettel. Ricciardo finished fourth on countback after crossing the line 3rd due to a late Vettel stop. Button claimed fifth for McLaren ahead of the two Williams who struggled in the wet conditions. Hulkenberg also was allowed to keep his 8th place after breaking down on the pit-lane exit one lap before the race was called short. Vergne scored points from the back end of the grid - why is he being fired again... and Perez took home the final championship point in 10th.

The Bonus Points Championship Points Winners

Today we saw a race severely influenced by rainfall and a deeply unfortunate incident that brought about the conclusion of the race, and here are the points winners from the race.

• 25pts - Jules Bianchi - Needs some points in fighting the injury sustained today and hoping for a strong recovery
• 18pts - Jenson Button - An inspired call at the beginning to switch immediately to intermediates, that steering wheel change cost a podium
• 15pts - Sebastian Vettel - So very nearly dropping out of Q2 to find himself on the podium in a difficult race
• 12pts - Lewis Hamilton - A strong persistent race today, and kept on was able to put aside the result in favour of Bianchi's condition
• 10pts - Marcus Ericsson - Despite spinning on the opening lap, Ericsson caught a passed the rest of the lower division and lead it comfortably
• 8pts - Daniel Ricciardo - There may have been a big pace advantage, but those passes on the Williams cars were impressive
• 6pts - Jean-Eric Vergne - After a 10 place grid penalty and two early stops the Frenchman still fought back into the points
• 4pts - Kevin Magnussen - Scores some points for his 360 spin on the exit of the first corner
• 2pts - Pastor Maldonado - Gets a couple of points for not hitting anyone in some very difficult conditions
• 1pt - Sergio Perez - Gets the final point for his pair of saves on the lap to the grid to keep the Force India out of the wall

I could go on to assign penalty points but, at this stage with little information available it would be unfair to lay blame at anyone's door. All we can do is hope for a full recovery and a return to racing for Jules Bianchi

Looking ahead to Russia

It is very much a step into the unknown next week as we head to a completely new circuit within the Sochi winter Olympic park in a country making it's first visit to the F1 calendar. Naturally from the pictures and footage that has been released from the test events held at Sochi the initial comparisons are going to be made with the Valencia street track. That doens't sound too positive considering how naff that 'street' track was, but in fairness to it the final event it hosted in 2012 was a brilliant race. So there is hope that Sochi can deliver a sparkling debut. There may be many political controversies regarding this part of eastern Europe at the moment - but as we saw from the winter Olympics Russia does know how to put on a show and provide some excellent facilities. However in the run up to that race the blog's and the world's thoughts remain with Jules Bianchi as his recovery continues.

Round 15 - Japan 2014: Qualifying

Greetings Internet, 

Like many people in this time zone and those further west we woke up with the qualifying session recorded to watch at a more hospitable time. When that recording was played it seemed like the very fabric of reality had imploded. It would be easy to forget that Saturdays are all about setting the grid for the race on the Sunday. While we did have that all important qualifying session this morning, the attention and pit-lane conversations were well and truly pointed elsewhere. In Thursdays preview I pointed out that Fernando Alonso would be linchpin in determining the driver movements between teams. Today the first dominoes began to fall into place when Sebastian Vettel decided to part company from Red Bull... which seems odd frankly. In most races it has been the second fastest car, although it is a little worse this weekend. So where is Mr Vettel going to go now, well the whole thing comes back to Alonso and Ferrari. While nothing has been confirmed officially, we can assume at this stage that Vettel is going to Ferrari and Alonso is going to McLaren Honda. The man who could lose out in all this is Jenson Button as there someone has to move to make room for Fernando.

There is also a hole left at Red Bull from Vettel's exit - news that will have pricked Vergne's ears up a bit. But after losing out to Ricciardo the first time round, he has lost out again as Daniil Kvyat is going to Red Bull next - putting the death stare near the front of the grid. So does this mean Vergne gets re-instated at Toro Rosso alongside Max Verstappen... well probably not as the the current line of thought is that Carlos Sainz Jnr will take the spot. It is really going against Vergne at the moment, with reliability challenges handing him a grid penalty tomorrow. It never rains but it pours sometimes... even more so for the race I suspect...

Qualifying 

Underneath all the driver changes and transfers at the sharp end of the grid, there was actually a challenge for pole position to take care of as well. Not that too many people noticed, because it was ever so slightly underwhelming and inevitable. In comparison to previous qualifying sessions at Suzuka it was quite tame, but I get the impression that at this end of the season the teams have now got on top of the powertrain and thus the cars are much easier to drive, even a teenager can do it these days.

Q1 started with the local hero and international fan favourite Kamui Kobayashi taking to the circuit to very temporarily be the fastest car on track. But that naturally didn't last too long unfortunately - I think we'll have to wait to the events of tomorrow to hope for a miraculous performance in the monsoon rains. Of the front runners it was obviously the Mercedes team who flexed their collective muscles and virtually glided onto the front row... comfortably ahead of the nearest competitor. In the internal competition it was Hamilton who claimed a slim advantage of 0.06s - at this point the team pulled the cars in because their work was done.

The battle for relegation places was between Sauber and Lotus who were in a rut all of their own - a long way from the points, but safely ahead of Caterham and Marussia. For most of the session both teams had one car in relegation and one through to the next round - Gutierrez and Maldonado in the drop zone. After events in Bahrain it made sense for Esteban to want to put as many cars between himself and the mad Venezuelan. Of course another Renault failure means that Pastor has a 10 place grid penalty anyway. Gutierrez made it through into Q1 at the expense of Adrian Sutil, Sutil then managed to improve himself to knock Grosjean into relegation instead. Neither Maldonado or Grosjean could find any more pace in the Lotus and were knocked out. Even further back, Marcus Ericsson somehow managed to become qualifying champion of the bottom teams. The Swede managed to beat not only home legend Kamui but the dominant force in the division Jules Bianchi. But perhaps seeing the Ferrari seat go missing again might have displeased Jules slightly.

Q2

The second part of qualifying took a little while to get underway, I was able to go and make a toastie before anyone took to the track - even if it was a hastily prepared concoction. Eventually Valtteri Bottas departed the pit-lane and took to the track - only to see his time quickly obliterated by the Mercedes pairing. This time Rosberg was fastest, but the margin between the two was down to 0.03s this time. Bottas was 8 tenths further back... 

At the point of relegation the times were a lot closer - two tenths separated 8th to 12th place, a group of cars which contained both Red Bulls, Toro Rossos and Perez. Raikkonen and Button weren't comfortably safe in front of this group. As the final runs got started only Daniil Kvyat was representing the Red Bull consortium in the top ten, but his position there was rather tenuous as lap-times began to tumble. Vettel and Ricciardo went first and jumped clear of the relegation zone and into the top ten, but as Button and Raikkonen improved Vettel found himself shuffled down into tenth place. A position that looked increasingly risky, but the driver in the best position to relegate the German bloke was Jean-Eric Vernge - the man the Red Bull enterprise has discarded like so many worthy contenders before. Perhaps a nice friendly gesture of not knocking Vettel out of Q2 might score him some loyalty points with the team... So Vettel progresses and Vergne scored and engine penalty... it's not fair sometimes.

Q3

Ten cars remaining, and only two of them could get pole position - and looking at the form from the previous sessions the top four positions were roughly decided before we started. In fact given we know that Red Bull's form has been poor by their standards their position was almost anchored to the opposite end of the top ten. Which meant that very little was left to decide in the remaining 12 minutes of qualifying. But maybe, just maybe a bizarre upset would take place - something to throw a metaphorical spanner in the works, or even a real spanner for that matter. In contrast to Q2, Valtteri Bottas was waiting at the end of the pit-lane even before the light turned green. 

This time the difference between Bottas and the Mercedes drivers was slightly smaller - but remained a gaping chasm of defeat in comparison to some of the margins elsewhere on the grid. The Williams driver was only four tenths behind Hamilton, who in turn was a quarter of a second behind Rosberg after a slight lock-up at the Kobayashi hairpin. Valtteri made a similar mistake, so there was the potential for the Williams to inch ever close to Mercedes - but there was no real hope of stealing another position. Felipe Massa had remained completely anonymous all session, if it wasn't for the timing pane I'd never know he was there - but he was right behind Bottas in fourth place. Out of the final qualifiers only Raikkonen didn't partake in the opening runs after using more tyres in Q1.

Onto run two and could Rosberg retain control of his pole position only one race after Lewis retook the championship lead. Lewis did improve his time but Nico moved the goalposts a little further up the road and out of reach of Hamilton, not that it mattered because even Lewis' faster second lap was slower than Nico's initial performance. Bottas found a couple of extra tenths, but stayed third ahead of Massa. The ever cryptic Alonso brought the Ferrari home in 5th considerably ahead of Raikkonen who was down in 10th. The middle of the Ferrari sandwich was populated by the Red Bull and McLaren drivers headed by Magnussen in 6th. 

The Bonus Points Championship Points Winners

Today may have been uneventful and predictable - at least in terms of qualifying anyhow... but points need to be delivered.

• 10pts - Marcus Ericsson - The slower driver for a team in strife at the moment, leads the lower division ahead of Bianchi and Kamui
• 8pts - Valtteri Bottas - The only driver keeping the Mercedes' roughly in sight, even if he is 6 tenths back
• 6pts - Nico Rosberg - Takes pole position away from Lewis and cancels out Hamilton's run of form
• 5pts - Fernando Alonso - Once again the driver carrying the flag for the Ferrari team...wonder if Vettel can do the same thing
• 4pts - Jean-Eric Vergne - Beats Kvyat, almost beats Vettel and still Red Bull fail to accept he exists... I wonder sometimes
• 3pts - Felipe Massa - Gets points for being one of the most anonymous drivers to qualify in the top five.
• 2pts - Daniel Ricciardo - On a track Vettel has been utterly dominant the Australian beats the German... no wonder Seb wants out 
• 1pt  - Suzuka - At times the track was the most entertaining feature of qualifying rather than those on it.

Looking to Tomorrow

This is quite literally the calm (and it was very calm, almost asleep at times) before the storm as Phanfone is on its way - due to make landfall on Monday. But the storm will be preceded by severe rain and wind - conditions that are predicted to descend on Sunday. A recipe for a seriously wet race, suggestions are afoot to move the race start time forward to get in front of the incoming storm, so that at least some laps are completed before it hits. There are threats of half-points being dished out and lots of safety car running, because dealing with the weather is horrifically inconsistent. In Canada 2011, the race wasn't restarted until it was dry enough for intermediates, yet in Japan 2007 the race was completed in full wet conditions - both were brilliant races. The battle between Kubica and Massa was astounding in Fuji - so more of that please tomorrow. 

My fear is that the rain becomes so severe - a la Spa earlier on this year or Malaysia 2009 - the last half points race. A race in which Raikkonen gave up and went for some ice cream during the storm delay. But I doubt that even in the event of rainfall which is very likely - Mercedes will still dominate and score a 1-2, if they don't crash into each other amidst the puddles.