From the chaotic streets of Singapore to the wondrous brilliance of Suzuka the championship heads off for the second of the Asian double header races. It has been less than a week since the conclusion of the last race where Mercedes got comprehensively beaten for the first time in the entire turbo-hybrid era. But the paddock newsreel had almost reached terminal velocity in the intervening days as many high profile stories have started floating around the pit-lane. All looking at how the grid might look in 2016.
The first story focuses on Red Bull and the continuous rants of their Austrian overlord. Since they have officially divorced from Renault, they do need to track down an engine supplier for the upcoming season and the options are running a little thin. Mercedes it seems have mentioned that they are not up for handing Red Bull and engine, and Honda haven't made enough progress to warrant Red Bull taking a Honda engine for next season. That leaves Ferrari - and Red Bull have stated they wan't exactly the same package as the factory team, including software, fuel and engine maps... which would include all kinds of proprietary Ferrari technology. That seems a little excessive considering that Ferrari have often been one of the most secretive and internal teams - so the idea that they will hand over their most prized technology does seem a little mad. Bernie has joined in the discussion and said that Ferrari are 'scared' to give Red Bull the top package... At the moment Dietrich has suggested that Red Bull could leave the sport following the race in Abu Dhabi - taking Toro Rosso with them. Other rumours suggest that Audi would take over Red Bull in around 2018... but who knows what is happening. If they do depart the grid will be down to at least 18 cars as Haas join. With the ongoing struggles at Lotus' financial department who knows whether they will be on the grid next season. In all hope all teams will make it next year, but we live in uncertain times.
The other news relates to Jenson Button and his future going into the next season. A recent spate of rumors has suggested that he is on the verge of jumping to WEC to drive for Porsche to join Mark Webber - in the light of Nico Hulkenberg's Le Mans victory. Jenson himself hasn't confirmed that he is on the way out, only saying that whatever he is doing in 2016 - he'll be very happy. Which is where the WEC rumours are based, because his time at a struggling McLaren this season has not been quite so happy. His continually sarcastic radio comments have been an insight into the deep frustrations with the lack of progress and achievement thus far in 2015. So unless Honda and McLaren can prove good things for 2016 - it does look as if his seat might be going to either Magnussen or Vandoorne in partnering Alonso. It will be a shame to see Button go, just as it was when Webber left but I understand his reasons and that a possible drive with Porsche would put him in a race winning car once again. This would be a particularly poignant weekend for Jenson to announce his plans as due to his connection with Japan on Honda's home circuit.
The Venue
Some tracks you don't excited about, some are famed for their racing rather than their layout, some have huge historic value, and some are like Suzuka. Which by that I mean, Suzuka may not quite have the long running tradition of Monza, Spa, Silverstone and Monaco - nor does it have the new artificial glamour of Abu Dhabi and Singapore. It lives in a category all of it's own and is up there with the most challenging, demanding and enthralling venues we visit all season long. The layout is magnificent, the majority of the corners are deliberate and purposeful knitting beautifully together to form an exquisite ribbon of tarmac bounded by grass, gravel and tyre barriers. Not tarmac and miles of run-off. However that challenge and that risk, has had it's consequences and the horrific events of 2014 will never be forgotten. As the this weekend marks one year since the crash that claimed the life of Jules Bianchi. We enjoy tracks like these, because they are difficult, and the margin for error is so small - but it also makes them dangerous and last year was the ultimate example of how dangerous this sport is. It is going to be difficult weekend for all involved, especially for Manor - who are still here because of Bianchi's achievements in Monaco.
The circuit starts off with a slice of double-apexed gold, cambered gently to hold the cars through both parts of the corner. There is tarmac run-off instead of gravel, but there is a sizable grass and astroturf boundary to discourage drivers from running wide. The second corner leads into a brief straight before taking on the challenge of the esses - a fantastic sequence of left-right combinations carving up the side of the hill, each one slightly tighter and more challenging than the last. There is no tarmac here, just grass followed by a short trip to a barrier. At the top of the hill is Dunlop curve a bumpy high speed corner. Since last year and the tragic accident - the Dunlop corner has been modified to add extra drainage to help prevent the rivers that caused both Adrian Sutil and Jules to aquaplane off the circuit.
After dunlop comes one of Suzuka's true highlights, the Degner corners - Degner one serves as a high speed entry for Degner two. Another sequence of corners where the road camber grips the car and pulls it through the curve. Over the years many cars and drivers have been foiled by the Degner section as the smallest error in the first part is almost guaranteed to throw the car at the scenery in part two. The exit of Degner two crosses under the bridge as the track loops underneath itself on the approach to Kobayashi corner... alas local and general fan favourite Kamui isn't on the grid this season, so we won't be seeing the Japanese driver perform his miracles at the hairpin. But I imagine Mad Max Verstappen would take up that mantle and have a series of ridiculous lunges at unsuspecting rivals. The exit of the hairpin is a long progressive curve along a narrow section of road towards Spoon corner. Spoon is quite similar to turn one in the sense that it is two corners blended into one compound curve where road is constantly falling away. Spoon feeds onto the back straight, one of the few places of rest during a very action packed lap.
At the end of the straight lies potentially Suzuka's most famous corner 130R - but like the other world famous bends - Eau Rouge, Blanchimont and curva grande - this has been rendered less of challenging by ever increasing levels of downforce. It's profile was also modified to reduce the number of large accidents the corner attracted. When Red Bull were able to complete the corner with the DRS open it confirmed that the corner wasn't as scary as it once was. But one wheel out of place and the barrier is waiting for to destroy any suspecting cars. The lap is completed by the Casio Triangle chicane - one of the prime overtaking spots, and another place for Verstappen to take out the opposition, or Maldonado depending on who is feeling more destructive come Sunday afternoon.
The Form Guide
After most people probably threw the form guide out of the window in Singapore it might be an idea to retrieve it for this weekend as normal service should resume in Suzuka. Singapore was a very unique track and therefore what we experienced was a glitch in the system - in fact many drivers experienced race ending technical glitches. This time I imagine that Mercedes should be back at the front on top form, locking out the front row and going on to win the race. Ferrari will still be close but probably not in front. This should be another track where Red Bull should be reasonable competitive and challenge Williams for the third row given how much of the track is dependant on aerodynamic and chassis design properties.
The mid-field will be interesting this time, perhaps Toro Rosso will be at the head of the train followed by Force India and Lotus as they look to capitalise on any errors made by those teams further up the grid. It might not be such a good weekend for Sauber however, as they come to the fore on high speed power tracks not those based upon cornering and downforce. The Sauber chassis has lacked development and tracks like Suzuka will not play into their hands. McLaren might be in a similar position, as they lack the power to move towards the front. A poor result here would be as much a shame as it is an inevitability in front of Honda's home crowd.
The Japanese GP is one of those season highlights we have to wait quite a long time for - but this season it will inevitably be a race tinged with sadness and remembrance as we look back on the events of 2014. Changes have been made to both the rule book and the track to prevent that accident from happening again. Hopefully 2015 will deliver a race weekend that allows us not to forget, but to remember what Suzuka can do for all the right reasons.
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