Round 13 - Singapore 2015 - Qualifying

Ahoy Matey's aboard the good ship Internet, 

Thar running order be a little squally upon this day, I sit here upon the carpeted deck of blog HQ in front of the mechanical porthole gazing upon the distant lands of Singapore with an expression of grand surprise. If ye be wonderin' why I be scrawling in this incoherent tongue. Well I be tellin' ye - today be international talk like a pirate day, and therefore I be swiggin from me flaggon o' tea and typin' in the way o' the high seas. Thar session started wit thar news of dismay upon the decks of Lotus an' rumours o' mutiny among shipmates deep in the cabin spaces. Thar Capt'ns at Renault be casting thar spyglass upon the Endstone team most favourably - and an armada of nefarious lawyers be circlin' to strike up an accord to take over captaincy o' the crew. Across the waters in the sea o' Red Bull they be maroonin' thar mechanical sail provider - an' they be scouring the depths for new shipmates and loot to take thar vessels up to the top of the piratical hierarchy. Thar shipmates aboard Ferrari an' Mercedes be spying across the harbour at thar enemies an' considerin' whether or not they should be powering the opposition. 

But today that pecking order sailed into doldrums as the rulers of the high seas have been made to walk the plank, and dive into the rougher waters of the mid-field. Swathing fleets of marauding crews have struck up an accord to mutiny against the established order. In thar post session parlay, the captains remained confused at why thar vessels be not parting the seas quite as effectively. Upon the morn i'll strike up the electrical spyglass and see what the high tides have in store. For now I think I'll consign the pirate parlay to davey jones locker, for my keyboard be considerin' a mutiny for  manglin all the rules o' spellin' an' grammar.

Qualifying

The session started under an air of suspicion because the practice sessions had thrown up some rather interesting results. The mighty, unstoppable Mercedes team were nowhere near the front of the field - over a second away from the top times. Instead Ferrari and Red Bull were far more the dominant force - just as Red Bull and Renault had officially terminated relations, things started to look up. What made things even more interesting is that this bemusing turn around has come at exactly the wrong time for the statisticians up and down the paddock and across the internet who were pointing out that Hamilton and Mercedes were on course for equalling all kinds of records for domination... and how things change.

Q1

The first session of the day would provide an interesting insight into whether that strange practice form would carry over into qualifying. We'd have to wait for the top runners to take to the track - and instead we saw some of the other runners enjoying the circuit to themselves. Bottas was the first one to set a time, locking up through the new reprofiled bridge section on the approach to the Fullerton Hairpin - it's probably not called that but I have redubbed it as such because turn numbers are soulless and the commentary team are constantly mentioning the hotel on the exit of the corner. Other drivers were having fun through the section, particularly Pastor Maldonado in the Lotus who was every single shade of sideways across the bridge, but this time kept it out of the wall. 

Eventually the main runners ventured onto the circuit, and the battle between Mercedes and their rivals remained as one-sided as we've seen it all season long. With one slight exception that there was a case of role reversal taking place. Raikkonen took the lead from Bottas, only for Ricciardo to outpace the Ferrari. It has been a long time since Red Bull have been competitively fighting over the front row. While Mercedes were nowhere to be seen. At the other end of the spectrum down in the relegation zone McLaren were notably absent from that category as well - they were inside the promotion zone. Instead Sauber, Manor and Maldonado were in relegation instead. Ericsson promoted himself, shortly before Nasr replaced him as the sole promoted Sauber - but it wasn't over. Jenson Button, threw his McLaren at the final sector throwing caution to the wind and scratching his way into Q2 by less than a tenth of second. 

Q2

It was Bottas again who set the initial lap time in the second part of qualifying for Williams, but he like everyone else with a Mercedes engine were not having it quite their own way this weekend. In Monza it was almost a walkover for anyone with a German engine - but this race is a completely different story. The factory team drivers set almost identical lap times down to a few thousandths of a second - this just served to prove that the ultimate pace of the Mercedes car was a long way off the pace of those cars at the front of the grid. This time it was Daniil Kvyat and his death stare that was sitting at the top of the time sheets in a Renault powered car, with the two Ferraris and Ricciardo in close attendance. There was certainly a four way battle for pole position forming as closing in the final part of qualifying.

In the final runs of Q2 the focus was directed towards the relegation zone, where Force India, McLaren and Carlos Sainz. Several of these occupants had dreams of moving into the next round. Especially McLaren who saw Singapore as one of their few opportunities to get close to the points. But the final runs were sort of ruined by Carlos Sainz who brushed the wall coming out of the grandstand section. As he limped the damaged Toro Rosso back to the pits the yellow flags prevented many drivers from improving. Debris left on the circuit from the front wing meant that once Sainz had cleared the car, the yellows remained in place while the clock timed out. 

Q3

We headed into the final part of the session with a very strange prospect on the cards - it was looking highly likely that we would see the first non-Mercedes powered pole position since 2013. The factory Mercedes team were nowhere near the top times, and none of the folk in the garage seemed to have any of the answers. Rosberg spent the entire session chasing setup and it made no difference to their competitiveness. This time Ricciardo was the first of the contenders to take to the circuit, breaking Valtteri's streak of being the first driver to put a time on the board throughout the rest of the session. The Williams driver would make up for that later on. Ricciardo held onto the provisional pole position time, after an initial attack from Raikkonen and Kvyat - but there was one more contender left to upset the Australian's hopes and that contender was Sebastian Vettel. The Ferrari driver eased his way to provisional pole position. As for the Mercedes drivers - they headed out on a used set of tyres for the opening run, Rosberg completed the lap a country mile behind the top four times. While Hamilton simply aborted his lap after making an error at his favourite corner - turn 7 (see this is why we need names) - running over the raised curbing on the exit.

So it was time for round two, and throughout the session we kind of theorised that maybe, just maybe Mercedes had something in reserve and were going to spring a surprise and take their conventional place at the top of the tree. Vettel's time seemed unbeatable, and it was starting to look even more so as every contender that crossed the line fell sort of the mark. Even the first sector times alone were an instant indicator that we were looking at a Ferrari pole. Ricciardo must have seen these sector times on his dashboard and thrashed the Red Bull through the final sector, he did improve his time but not his grid position. While none of Vettel's rivals could wrestle pole position away from him the German Bloke kept the boot in on his final lap and carved a mighty half second advantage over Ricciardo and a decimating 1.5 seconds over the leading Mercedes... what on earth has a happened...

The Bonus Points Championship Points Winners

That was a highly unusual session, one which has forged a sudden and sharp change in the running order of an unprecedented magnitude. Transitioning from a dominant Monza to this weekend being 1.5s off pole is a huge backwards step for Mercedes. But this allows others to sweep in and steal some points.

• 10pts - Daniil Kvyat - Recorded his best grid position on one of the more difficult circuits in an traditionally unfavoured car
• 8pts - Sebastian Vettel - That was a very powerful and dominant performance, that final Q3 lap was just decadent 
• 6pts - Daniel Ricciardo - Front row for the Australian is a brilliant return to form and sets up tomorrow's race brilliantly
• 5pts - Romain Grosjean - Completely anhilated Maldonado today, made it into Q3 while Pastor didn't leave Q1 
• 4pts - Fernando Alonso - 12th on the grid is a marvellous result for McLaren given their current performances this season
• 3pts - Max Verstappen - Takes some points for his very lurid slide and save in the high speed final corner on his last Q3 lap
• 2pts - Alex Rossi - A spontaneous debut for the American but he kept in touch with Will Stevens in the other car
• 1pt - Pastor Maldonado - Gets a point for his powerslide across the Andersen bridge in Q1

•  -1pt - Carlos Sainz - Gets a penalty point for ruining the end of Q2 with his visit to the wall.

Looking to Tomorrow

This looks to be a very intriguing race, once which doesn't have the ominous headline of another race of Mercedes domination. If Hamilton or Rosberg want to win this one they are going to have put a lot of work into it, and on the basis of the weekend thus far they probably don't have the pace surprisingly enough. So we are left with a four car fight for the lead as both Ferrari's and Red Bulls are on very similar pace, but I suspect that Vettel might have the edge on the rest of them.

Then there is the matter of the general unpredictability of any race on the tropical streets of Singapore. It is going to be a long two hour epic event with a very high risk of a safety car and some collisions which have typified previous races here. So it could be a conventional Vettel victory as we've seen many times in the Red Bull era... or it could be utter chaos. I know which version I'd prefer and it isn't the former option.