Now, excuse me Brazil but I believe we ordered some rain this weekend, and I'd like to know where it is thank you very much. So because Interlagos was bathed in spontaneous sunshine the penultimate episode in this season came down to tyre management and strategy rather than raw pace and wheel to wheel racing. Even though we did get some of that along the way - just none at the front, but in fairness we have got quite used to that for several seasons now. Like Austin and I assume like Abu Dhabi coming up this weekend became less about the on-track action since that is more or less a formality, and more about the indeterminate politics of driver moves and team budgets. It seems like a deepening vein of hypocrisy is emerging at the front of the grid, and the TV figurehead is Christian Horner. Bickering about Mercedes doing what they can to hold on to their advantage, but complained endlessly when other teams questioned their domination in the past four seasons... I smell the rising scent of sour grapes... that is if I had a functioning sense of smell...
Today's race was unnaturally well behaved, drivers gave each other room - mostly - and I don't think there was any degree of contact at all. I think that over the course of the 71 laps only two cars actually left the track surface such was the level of consistency and control on display. Some battles did emerge but all in all it was one of the tamer races of the season - controlled by tyre conservation and pit strategy. Also the more observant of the readers - if in fact there are any readers - that there was no post yesterday. That was because I was a little preoccupied at the time and didn't get to see qualifying until 1am so didn't really get too much time to put in the multiple hours it takes to write one of these contributions.
The Race
Expectations of the race did drop slightly as soon as the screen depicted a completely blue sky and bright sunshine - forecasts leading up to the weekend were for showers and rain events on each day. Somehow absolutely none of that materialised, it's like 2013 all over again where all forecasts of rain were lies and deception...
At the start of the race we were presented with an identical situation to Austin - 17 cars on the grid and one in the pit-lane. This time Adrian Sutil was the car missing out on the standing start, after the Sauber suffered a 'technical change' Monisha shrewdly not clarifying what the change was. But given how narrow the track is the field would still look fairly busy through the first corner. Alas it was all very uniform everyone seemed to make an identical start and the positions remained static. In turn four Vettel was passed by Kevin Magnussen which also opened the door for Fernando Alonso to follow through. Sebastian said after the race that he didn't want to turn in because in 2012 he did just that and ran into Bruno Senna.
For the first stint a grand total of nothing really happened - because everyone was far more concerned with the soft compound tyres which were suffering in the heat. Pastor Maldonado was the first car to pit but out of the front running cars Felipe Massa was the first car to switch onto a new set of tyres from third place. But the local hero's shot at a podium took an early hit when he was pinged for speeding in the pit lane and received a 5 second pit stop time penalty on his next visit to the garage. Of course Felipe had a cunning plan to try and avoid that penalty, but we'll get to that one later on. As the sequence of stops continued, those drivers who started the race on the medium compound tyres cycled towards the front. As Hamilton and Rosberg pitted - Nico Hulkenberg ended up in the lead followed by Daniil Kyvat. Furthermore with such a small grid - and this early in the race a pit stop dropped cars a long way back. The Alonso, Vettel, Ricciardo battle had been dumped to outside the points positions.
For Mercedes the deficit wasn't as severe - and their pace advantage allowed them to effortlessly overtake Grosjean, Kvyat and Hulkenberg will almost no resistance to go to the front. So despite qualifying demonstrating that another car could get within a few tenths of a Mercedes - in the race they were untouchable. Massa was keeping them just in sight, but had the upcoming penalty looming over his head dampening his faint glimmer of hope of taking on one of the factory cars. The second Williams of Valtteri Bottas was under some considerable pressure from Jenson Button - after the two cars pitted and virtually left the lane side by side. The Finn had enough top speed to defend against any DRS powered McLaren efforts.
With the late stoppers filtered back down the order it was time to start talking about the tyres again and how difficult they were proving to be. Hamilton pointed out that blisters were appearing on his fronts, and Rosberg was encountering rear graining - not that he was initially sure what the car was doing. First he suggested there was understeer, and then corrected that to say it was in fact oversteer... surely he has been driving cars long enough to figure out the difference. Despite all these complaints, lap times were still improving so ailing tyres were making no difference. Lewis was still closing in on Nico, and the Red Bulls in a similar situation were still applying pressure to a struggling Fernando Alonso. The only car currently holdling out on the original tyreset was Romain Grosjean in the Lotus in the midst of the Magnussen, Alonso et al train of cars. Romain was visibly short of grip - powersliding out of corners and locking wheels everywhere - but the Frenchman unlike many others was willing to defend his place from the attackers.
In the second round of stops is was double pain for Williams as Massa had to endure that penalty addition to his stop time, and Bottas had an equally slow stop as a result of some loose seat belts. This promoted Jenson to fourth ahead of the Finn and closer to the back of Felipe's Williams and a potential podium position. Up front Hamilton engaged 'Hammer time' mode after Nico pitted for his second stop - and pushed a little too much... which somehow was the team's fault for not calling the number of laps to push for. On the second lap of 'Hammer time' Lewis messed up in turn four and slid out across the run-off area. It wasn't too long ago that the tarmac run-off space was grass filled with puddles and ruts. So a mistake that could have lead to a damaged car and a loss of track position only cost a net seven seconds. That seven seconds did however prevent Hamilton from taking the lead of the race and ultimately the race win... but still could have been worse.
After Hamilton got back to the pits for some new tyres, he started peeling time away from Nico's lead - it was looking very much like Austin all over again. Would we see another half-hearted defence followed by Hamilton merely wandering off into the distance. Cars on the alternate strategy once more found themselves in the middle of the top ten once more - Hulkenberg being the lead purveyor of the opposite approach, this time hunting down Raikkonen who was considering jumping on the two-stop bandwagon. Of course Hulkenberg would have to stop again for the softer tyres in the final phase of the race - rather than let the Force India catch up Kimi was called in to pit - jumping off the bandwagon once more before it cost him time. However the Ferrari pit crew did that job for him with their inconsistent front swivel jack device, as the jackman moved the side the car dropped - as it did to Alonso in Russia - before the wheels were all attached.
Red Bull were encountering contrasting fortunes in this middle phase of the race, Sebastian Vettel benefited from a helpful strategy call by his team to jump ahead of Magnussen and Alonso. This trio of cars found themselves carving past Daniil Kyvat whose tyres were considerably past their best at this point - as the Russian was on the same alternative strategy as Grosjean and Hulkenberg running the medium compound tyres up until the final stint of the race. As Ricciardo approached this particular group of cars one of the upper suspension arms on his Red Bull failed under braking for the first corner. The Australian assumed it was a brake failure as the suspension components are not usually visible from the driver's eyeline. As tyre strategies were continually shifting to favour one car or another in a particular battle we saw Hulkenberg attacking Bottas. On this season's form the Williams should easily have the beating of a Force India - even in this race Bottas held off Button before his slow stop cost him the position. The Hulk made a definitive lunge to the inside of the Williams in turn one - making sure the Finn had nowhere to go on the exit. As Valtteri scampered across the run-off Raikkonen picked up the slipstream and the DRS towards turn four. Valtteri defended but the momentum was with the Ferrari driver as Raikkonen switched to the inside to take the place. It was a sign that the tyres needed changing on Valtteri's car, but the stop was slow once more as mechanics had to clear debris from the vents in the front and rear wings on his car.
Another battle unfolding was between Magnussen and Alonso - having seen how defensive the Dane was in a similar duel in Spa things could get interesting. But then again Kevin was a lot more lenient in Austin, probably to avoid any more penalties for aggressive defensive moves. This time round the McLaren driver did close the door - gently claiming the inside for turn four, but ran wide on the tighter line and handed Fernando the position. Felipe Massa had a plan to evade any future pit-lane penalties... by stopping in the wrong pit box. Felipe pulled his Williams up to a crowd of waiting McLaren mechanics who were waiting for Jenson Button. The Brazilian had already served his speeding penalty today but this could be a scouting mission for the finale - and McLaren already have enough issues on deciding their driver line up without other pilots throwing themselves at the team.
At the very front Mercedes were still having it their own way, miles ahead of Massa and Button. Hamilton had easily cut away the amount of the time he lost by spinning earlier in the race. The gap fluctuated as the pair meandered through the lapped traffic - even without Marussia and Caterham - lapped traffic still exists. Rosberg occasionally slipped into the DRS range of his chasing team-mate but the two cars were not close enough at this stage for Lewis to attempt a pass. Behind the two Mercedes cars, a long way behind that is, was the Force India of Nico Hulkenberg but once again it was tyres limiting his progress - starting on the medium compound meant that the German would have to use the softs at some point. As they were the more fragile tyre the idea was to delay that for as long as possible - this compromised his potential for lap time, it allowed Felipe Massa to close in and retake the final podium spot. Naturally this was to the grand delight of the local audience, whose appreciation was audible over the engine notes.
Kimi Raikkonen was starting to feel the strain of pushing his set of tyres in a long final stint as he dropped back into range of Jenson Button. The McLaren driver still unsure of his position next season went on the offensive with the Finnish driver. Kimi defended the inside in turn one as the two entered the corner side-by-side and held onto the place, but Jenson wasn't done quite yet and continued the battle up the Reta Oposta straight. Button got a better run through turns four and five and switched to the inside of the track on the exit. While Raikkonen was keeping an eye on what Button was doing Vettel joined in the battle and drove the Red Bull round the outside of the Ferrari in turn 6. Kimi saw the attack and didn't move across as it would have resulted in contact with the German and after that probably the barriers. While this was going on, Mercedes team-mates were now under a second apart - Hamilton occasionally pulling out of the slipstream just to appear in Nico's wing mirrors in the baking areas. Trying to put the German off his stride, but is wasn't working - if he wanted to take the lead, he'd have to do it by force.
As the top two were standing off each other the same could not be said for a another set of team-mates as Ferrari had both cars running line astern and in formation. Conventionally the Ferrari team would instruct the car in front to get out of Alonso's way - even if that car is driven by Raikkonen. Kimi was very defensive, refusing to give Fernando any opportunity to take the place. It was suggested that Ferrari being unwilling to make the call to put Fernando in front of the other red car was an indication that the Spaniard will not be in the team next season. But at this stage of the year with so little confirmed, every action or inaction will be scrutinised for any hidden meaning. In the absence of any team-radio broadcasts we can't be sure what was going on, and in all honesty is was much more entertaining seeing them race each other. Plus of all the people who would be bothered about their team-mate I don't think Kimi would be at the top of the list. After a couple of laps of defensive driving, including seeing both Ferrari's two wide through the double apexed turn 6 - Fernando won the fight using DRS on the main straight to complete the pass before braking for turn one.
With laps running out the battle for the lead closed to within half a second, faint hopes of another Bahrain style fight were emerging - but lapped traffic and an injection of pace from Rosberg added a few tenths to that. It did fluctuate slightly in those remaining laps, but Rosberg crossed the line in the lead, trimming a few points of what remains an unassailable lead. In terms of the championship it would take a mechanical failure or a severe error to cost Lewis the title - because there are no competitors on the grid that can prevent a Mercedes 1-2 if both cars are healthy and running to task. Rosberg can only hope that misfortune befalls Lewis because nothing else can stop him. The podium was completed by Felipe Massa, a popular result for the local crowd.
The Bonus Points Championship
Again with a smaller grid of cars, handing out points is more difficult, but here are the winners from the Brazilian GP weekend.
Qualifying Results
- 10pts - Esteban Gutierrez - On the weekend he discovers he no longer has a drive the Mexican almost makes it into the top ten for Sauber
- 8pts - Felipe Massa - Local support translated into lap time for Massa, beating Hamilton in Q2 and close to the front row in Q3
- 6pts - Valtteri Bottas - Like Massa spitting the Mercedes in Q2 is a noteworthy achievement
- 5pts - Nico Rosberg - Sets a new outright pole record for the Interlagos track and beat Hamilton in the process.
- 4pts - Sebastian Vettel - Out qualifying Ricciardo and lines up on the grid as the lead non-Mercedes powered car on the grid
- 3pts - Jenson Button - Effectively the best of the rest when considering the advantage of Mercedes and Williams have at the moment
- 2pts - Lewis Hamilton - Tried hard to defeat Nico, kept raising the bar only to see the German clear it each time
- 1pt - Fernando Alonso - Gets a point for his hilarious radio message as Romain Grosjean passed him in turn one in Q1
Race Results
- 25pts - Felipe Massa - An incredibly popular podium finish, and was the only car within sight of the two Mercedes
- 18pts - Nico Rosberg - Couldn't have done more to improve his championship odds, not that the minor points shift mattered too much. But showed Lewis who's boss today
- 15pts - Kimi Raikkonen - Gets points for not letting Alonso by in the de facto hierarchy at Ferrari, and for his battle with Jenson Button
- 12pts - Jenson Button - Another impressive drive, fighting with Raikkonen and capitalising on Williams dropping the ball slightly in the pits
- 10pts - Fernando Alonso - Weathered the attacks of both Red Bull cars and got involved with a brilliant battle with Raikkonen
- 8pts - Nico Hulkenberg - Lead the race, albeit via staying on track, being the only non-Mercedes car to do so today
- 6pts - Romain Grosjean - Gets some points for being one of the few drivers to put up a fight when cars on another strategy were moving up
- 4pts - Daniil Kyvat - Was running second at one point from the back of the grid and almost took home some points
- 2pts - Sebastian Vettel - Scores some points for his opportunistic pass to the outside of Raikkonen in turn six
- 1pt - McLaren's Pit Crew - Get a point for not adopting Massa as he arrived in their pit box
Looking to the Grand Finale
In two weeks time the journey of F1 2014 will be completed, we shall have a champion and no real news on who is sitting in which seat in 2015. All under the cloud of double points, a situation which does give Rosberg a little more hope of taking the title, because Lewis has to finish in the top two to take the crown. In any other season with multiple competitive cars that would be huge risk, but this season with only two cars that can win under normal circumstances it is a different set of circumstances. Lewis only really needs to finish the race with a healthy car, if he does he'll either be 1st or 2nd because no other car can beat a healthy Mercedes without an exceptional set of events. In Hungary, rain and an inopportune safety car prevented a Rosberg victory and Hamilton started last. In Belgium the two Mercedes tangled, and in Canada brake failure crippled the silver arrows. Without mitigating circumstances a Mercedes has won, and most cases only reliability has prevented a 1-2 finish.
Hamilton can only afford to be beaten by one car in Abu Dhabi, and in reality there is only one car that can do so - I expect a second championship for the Briton. But the bizarre set of events that would need to take place to upset that prediction will be well worth seeing and looking forward to.
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