In some apparent rush to wrap the season up quickly the penultimate round is taking place this weekend in the more southern of the Americas - hosting the Brazilian GP. Even in such a small time frame various news stories have been circulating throughout the pit-lane... including the pit-lane itself this weekend. But before we get to that we have to look back at the fallout from the threats supposedly made by Force India, Lotus and Sauber regarding pulling out of the race on Sunday as part of a deepening row over the distribution of the sport's revenue. Bernie has accepted that there is a problem, one stemming from the contracts that were drawn up when the sport was in a different era - things have changed, but the financial conditions didn't. One of the concessions planned was to ask the larger teams - out of mutual compassion - to accept a smaller share to support the others. A theory which was naturally dismissed by those larger teams... because they don't want to risk anything that would compromise their advantage. This requires some form of long term solution to put right, somewhere deep in the core fabric of the management, something needs to change. Yet as we've seen with the sporting and technical regulations - the powers that be are not fond of making those decisions and changes, rather patching over the cracks with superficial repairs like DRS and the farcical business of double points.
Aside from the financial chasm of despair, there are other rumblings in the paddock when considering driver line ups for 2015. Sauber have now confirmed that they will be replacing both Sutil and Gutierrez for next season - leaving the outgoing pilots without a seat at this point. Instead they have brought in Marcus Ericsson from struggling Caterham - because he has a lot of money, and improved a lot before the team descended into the abyss. Alongside the Swede will be Brazilian GP2 driver Felipe Nasr... and yes that is going to cause all manner of confusion having him and Massa on the same grid. Nasr also has a lot of money - but was arguably faster than Marcus in GP2 - this money comes from Banco Do Brasil, or something like it. The advantage there being that we might see a more colourful livery on the 2015 Sauber if they become a more influential team sponsor. With all this talk of driver swaps we are still no wiser as to the situation with Sebastian Vettel and where he is going. It is expected but not confirmed that it will be to Ferrari - but we have no idea what Fernando, the expected departee, is planning on doing. Almost every theory and guess under the sun has been suggested, from going to McLaren, going to WEC with Webber - or even an involvement with a hypothetical Audi F1 team or the Forza Rosso project which has gone very quiet. Some folk have even suggested leaving the sport altogether to run a Cycling team... yet the man himself has said that the end result, whatever that will be, will be considered the "obvious" choice... obvious to who, Fernando?...
The Venue
Anyway, back on track looking at the Interlagos circut hosting this penulimate round of the championship. Since the last visit, there have been some changes - changes made to the very end of the lap in and around the pit entry. The change has moved the start of the pit-lane further back around the final corner, and added a small chicane in the lane itself - I think the work is part of a larger plan to move the grandstands and the wall of that corner further back to allow more run-off. Especially considering the race is more often than not influenced by rain and difficult driving conditions. At present the corner looks unchanged apart from some resurfacing.
The main straight is situated in a canyon between two high concrete walls, where some of the grid sits on an uphill slope while the rest on a slight decline. In contrast to the mountainous climb up to the first corner in Austin, the track here falls away on the approach to the first apex. The heart of the first phase of the Senna 'S' is unsighted in the braking zone thus making it difficult to spot the turn in point. Judging the angle of attack through turn one defines the racing line for turn two - the second part of the chicane. Turn three is a simple acceleration zone in the dry - and a liability in the wet as rivers of water will flow across the track, as demonstrated by the wealth of cars crashing out there in that infamous race of 2003. If you haven't ended up in the scenery turn three exits into the first of the DRS zones encouraging overtaking on the run up to turn four.
Turn four itself is a medium speed almost 90 degree corner, but the exit feeds directly into turn five which is an acceleration zone that opens up the previous bend. Thus allowing more speed to be carried through the exit, but the outside curbs and astroturf beyond can trap rainfall and spin a car back across into the inside barriers. Given that rain is projected for at least Practice and Qualifying - even on Sunday if it stays dry the areas beyond the white lines will be treacherous. After turn five there is a short straight uphill to Ferradura corner, a gently cambered and fairly quick corner bordered by a lot of painted curbing. The grass and gravel were removed many seasons ago but the paint remains which in the dry is a non-issue but in the wet it is a whole different kettle of piranhas.
In the middle of the lap there is a sequence of three consecutive hairpins in the land grip forgot - the first one at turn 8 doesn't really have a name for some reason. But it has been the scene of a couple of opportunistic passes over the years if the car in front struggles on the exit of Ferradura. Part two is frustrating, off-camber and multiple shades of awkward - because the exit line for turn 8 doesn't quite fit with turn 9. It was one of the corners in the old fashioned F1 games that was a general pain in the neck - but now with more accurate simulation engines it is far more agreeable. Turn nine leads almost instantly into the braking zone for turn 10 - probably the corner with the best name of the season. Bico De Pato is the slowest of the thee hairpins and might offer a second overtaking spot if you use a little force - so there are plenty of options for some mad Vergne lunges. Especially since Kobayashi isn't here we need someone else to be a little bonkers under braking.
Towards the end of the lap the pace picks up a little starting with Mergulho a brilliant downhill curve which in the wet also suffers from rivers crossing the track. Rivers that caught Grosjean out in 2012 as he span into the barriers in another extraordinary Brazillian GP. Mergulho leads into Juncao which is probably one of the most important corners on a short and technical layout. Because getting a strong exit from Juncao defines the top speed all the way up the hill through the two final flat out kinks between the concrete walls before the start finish line. This straight plays host to the second of the DRS straights - which is a little irritating because overtaking in turn one was fine before all these gimmicks took over.
The Form Guide
Well, all the forecasts suggest that this is going to be a rain affected race weekend at some point - with some heavy showers in time for Qualifying. So there is the potential for a rather jumbled grid for the race on Sunday, which in itself may or may not be rain affected - radar projections for the weather suggest it might fade by then. In any event, I expect that Mercedes will be out front no matter what the conditions turn out to be - but given the nature of the track the gap should be much smaller. Potentially Red Bull could be the closest contenders because the technical layout may favour a more mechanically grippy car with an aerodynamic advantage. Williams however will be stronger in the first and third sectors where straight line speed is far more advantageous. Ferrari and McLaren might be somewhere behind this group picking up on the lower points positions. We can expect Button to be a few places further forward if rain is involved.
Force India, Toro Rosso might be in with a shot of some points especially if it does rain because Vergne and Hulkenberg have proven to be very capable in the event of difficult conditions. Although Nico crashed out of the 2012 race when battling Hamilton for the lead in changeable conditions - so anything can happen. Sauber and Lotus will once again be fighting it out to be off the back row of the grid - and given the fact that both Sauber drivers have found that they have been dropped from the 2015 line up I doubt their enthusiasm will be at an all time high this time out.
Like in Austin, Marussia and Caterham will not be joining the grid in Brazil but could make a comeback for Abu Dhabi in the grand finale of the season. Both of the struggling teams have been officially entered for the 2015 championship - Caterham remaining as Caterham racing, while Marussia revert to being called Manor GP - since that is the racing team that existed underneath the guise of first Virgin Racing and then Marussia.
Overall the Brazilian GP has thrown up some outstanding races generally influenced by some exciting weather - which has hilariously increased after the race was moved from the start of the season to the end to avoid the rainy season. A season that ultimately provided the manic and very destructive 2003 race which finished under a red flag conditions and only two drivers were on the podium. Even then Giancarlo Fisichella wasn't awarded the race win until a few days later after it was discovered he passed Raikkonen (back when he was the faster team-mate) before the count-back cutoff. So if we could have some more of that - minus Alonso finishing the race in an ambulance of course - it would be much appreciated. Of course whatever does happen this weekend, the drivers championship is guaranteed to go down to the mental double points fiasco in the final round.
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