It has been a long time since the Brazilian GP on the other side of the winter break, and here many weeks and hundreds of miles of testing (or less if you're in possession of a Renault power unit) later it is only a matter of days before the first race of 2014. At the time the new regulations were announced at the back end of last season it was anticipated that Melbourne might see a new competitive order - those who adapted best stealing Red Bull's thunder. Back then no-one knew how true that statement was, testing would be the first indication of the significance of what is about to unfold next weekend. In acceptance of the challenge that is upon the metaphorical table there were certain parts of the internet that spent some time going through the regulations to find out what happens if no-one actually finishes the race, such has been the state of reliability over the winter. Reliability has struck the Renault powered cars the hardest Lotus didn't even turn up in Jerez and Red Bull need not have bothered given the lack of running they did - less than half race distance in four days track time. In Bahrain things improved, but Lotus, Red Bull and Toro Rosso still struggled to keep the car running long enough to work on their lap times and overall pace.
In another indication that the engine manufacturers are having a very dominant influence on performance is that Ferrari engined cars (barring Hamilton's wing failure) have been the only cars that have been involved in accidents in testing. In Jerez it was Sutil in the Sauber who delivered some damage to the nosecone of his car and then in Bahrain is Raikkonen who did a lot more damage to his Ferrari. Potentially this shows that the torque curve on those power units are more difficult to manage than the other approaches - and Marussia have had a very difficult testing period with reliability and speed. Out of it all it is looking really rosy for anyone who managed to secure a Mercedes engine, the factory team and Williams coming out on top thus far... but it is very early days yet. So the blog examines each team and their road to the start of the first race.
Marussia
Starting at the perceived back of the grid, things are not showing any signs of improving, a series of technical dramas and a chronic lack of pace are not a brace of positive signs for the team. Having not changed their driver paring from 2013 there is an element of consistency within the garage and Bianchi remains highly rated and poised to push the squad further up the grid. But the thing is that the team don't have enough money to claw back enough grid positions on core speed, typified by the presence of a certain Max Chilton propping up the balance sheets and the back of the grid. However all is not lost for Marussia, this season is going to be blighted by unpredictable unreliability and potentially a little bit of mayhem. Just the right circumstances for an under-funded tail end team to profit from the misfortunes of others, and hilariously this plays directly into the hands of captain moneybags Chilton. Max did display an uncanny ability to finish races despite casing a few accidents along the way - including the infamous fort building exercise in Monaco - in uncertain times that is how a small team can steal a point or two in the early rounds.
Caterham
Sitting in a similarly slow and unwieldy boat at the bottom of the grid is Caterham, and you'd think being saddled with the short lived Renault engine package things would seem rather hopeless - no speed and longevity? But for some reason the little green cars have achieved some of the best reliability records of the entire grid during pre-season testing, part of that might be the excessively conservative cooling package wrapped in the biggest sidepods on the grid. On that basis we might find ourselves in a world where only Caterham and Max Chilton cross the line in Australia. Like Marussia, their immediate competition they've gone for a mixed driver partnership, pairing rookie Marcus Eriksson with international favourite Kamui Kobayashi. A signing which has automatically gained the team 10 bonus points before the opening race has started - if Bernie is allowed to roll out an insane scoring system, things will need to be stepped up here to have the edge in the madness stakes. Caterham thus far have been woefully slow, the point where Kamui pointed out that the car was setting slower times than GP2 cars in Bahrain. Some work to do there.
Williams
After testing someone needs to go round the garage and dish out some high fives, because the winter period has been very promising. Being this far down the list summarises how poor the 2013 season was for the team - supposed team leader at the time, Maldonado managed to score a single point and even that was a result of a mechanical failure for Rosberg in Hungary. Bottas on the other hand managed some points on pace in the latter races - but the step they have made in testing is miraculous - people are talking about wins and podiums in the plural sense rather than which race will they sneak into the top ten. A part of this change could be the transition from Renault to Mercedes power and some significant personnel changes behind the scenes. Combined with a new title sponsor in lieu of the PDVSA money from Venezuela and arguably the best livery on the grid things look very promising. Williams have passed the burden of Maldonado onto Lotus and aqcuired the talents of the 2012 bonus points champion - Felipe Massa. Seems like a good deal to me. Felipe has also brought his best buddy Rob Smedley along too and topped the time sheets in the final test - 2014 is a big season for Williams and the world is now expecting big things.
Toro Rosso
When Williams have benefited greatly from an engine manufacturer change, Toro Rosso have encountered the exact opposite. In 2013 the team were Ferrari powered and had some of the highest top speeds at the low downforce tracks of Monza and Spa, but now they are beset with Renault power. Perhaps this is to build some form of commonality with the main team Red Bull, and the more cynical amongst you will suggest that Red Bull are merely using Toro Rosso as an experiment for the new regulations... But the way testing has gone would disprove that as both teams have been struggling. However all these discussions about performance have detracted comments away from Toro Rosso's nose - which is the most likely protuberance to be censored for airing on daytime television. From the running thus far it would appear that Toro Rosso have lost a lot of ground to their mid-field rivals especially Williams and may come under threat from the two slower teams at the back of the grid. But when Renault sort out what is going on with the power units then things might improve, this means that Toro Rosso will find the early races difficult and may not finish most of them, waiting for the latter races to make up the difference.
Sauber
After a strong end to 2013 it seems that Sauber too are on the back foot and it seems that financial difficulties are at the head of that particular dilemma. There were many talks with investors at the end of the season - promoting rumours of Sergey Sirotkin being promoted into a race seat having done no real test mileage. In the end Sauber had settled for what seems like the most uninspired driver pairing of Sutil and Gutierrez. Which in reality might not be a bad idea, Sutil is dependable (as long as he stays out of Chinese bars) and Gutierrez demonstrated some flashes of brilliance (along with some of sheer stupidity) and in these uncertain times stability could be a valuable commodity. The car itself also seems mediocre, with all the attention on the top runners the world seems to have ignored those in the middle - except more dedicated corners of the internet. Sauber haven't been spared the reliability issues that others have suffered, losing over a day of testing at one point - but it has been able to complete race distances without breaking down so could be on for some points, just not inside the top five I'd guess.
Force India
Just by happening to have Mercedes engines Force India are in with a strong shout of consistent points while the others try and play catch up. This is boosted by the strongest driver pairing of the mid-field teams - liberating Hulkenberg from a struggling Sauber and adopting Perez who was booted out of McLaren because they liked Kevin more. There was a lot of online commotion when Nico didn't get a drive at Lotus, but oh how the tables have turned over the winter, Force India look like a much safer bet than the strange concoction that the Endstone team have created. In Jerez the team looked quite strong, but of course times at that stage don't mean a whole lot and picking a running order from that is lunacy - but in Bahrain the consistency continued. On base speed I don't quite think the car is fast enough to challenge for outright victories of podiums on a regular basis, but could easily put themselves in the position to capitalise when others retire. Force India are points contenders ahead of Sauber and Toro Rosso but potentially behind Williams - yet I reckon several big teams might find themselves further back.
Lotus
Well, it hasn't really gone to plan for Lotus - after being unable to compete in the first test in Spain, the team arrived in Bahrain and were plagued with technical problems. I severely doubt we have seen the actual speed of this interesting design so far, having to dial the power down just to get the car running for any period of time. Reigning bonus points champion Grosjean is in for a struggle to be the first driver to retain the generally ignored title. To make matters worse there had been an exodus of personnel from Endstone over the winter including some very important team members - Eric Boullier now belongs to McLaren and designer Pat Symmonds is now a Ferrari employee. On the whole things do not seem promising, but to counter balance that they do have an innovative car design which may pay dividends in the end and two fast - if not erratic - drivers. So when all the technical dramas are put right, and if the cars can reach the end of a race with all four wheels attached points can be scored - but it is going to be an uphill struggle to make it that far in 2014.
McLaren
Like Lotus McLaren have gone through some significant personnel changes in the run up to this season, the most notable being that Ron Dennis is back - the McLaren overlord has deposed Martin Whitmarsh and no-one quite knows where Martin is going next. Suspicions are that he was replaced because McLaren were playing too nice and needed to be more aggressive in their approach to team management. Other conspiracy theories claim that this is some big power-play to entice Lewis back into the team - but in reality Hamilton has no real reason to return given how well things are at Mercedes. Armed with the ever inaugural bonus points champion Jenson Button and this new chap Kevin Magnussen, McLaren seem to have a strong driver line-up. Kevin was able to top the time sheets in the final testing day in Jerez suggesting that the car is also a lot better than it was this time last season. But as you all know those times don't mean too much - it wasn't that long ago that Sauber lit up the pre-season tests but I don't recall them dominating the championship. So there is a cautious optimism at McLaren, like there is at Williams which makes for some interesting competition at the weekend.
Ferrari
Expectations could hardly be higher for Ferrari right now - with two highly rated world champions in the driving seats and some restructuring behind the scenes including looting Lotus' employment list. Maranello expects nothing less than victories and more titles to come from this season - and on the evidence thus far that goal seems fractionally out of reach. Like the others, Ferrari have had their own share of the reliability difficulties - and Raikkonen put the car in the wall in the first Bahrain test. But on top of that it has surfaced that the Ferrari engine is not the most fuel efficient motor on the grid - which in a season which aims to reward efficiency and fuel conservation is a bad sign. Reports are that both the factory team and Sauber have needed to fuel save in order to complete race distances on the single tank of fuel permitted. As Melbourne has a relatively high fuel consumption rate - the opening round is going to be more of a challenge than they hoped for. To add insult to injury the baseline speed of the car is vulnerable to several Mercedes powered teams - McLaren, Williams and the factory Mercedes team all appear to have moments of greater performance as well as better reliability and fuel numbers. Ferrari will always be competitive but taking the title might be a little optimistic at this stage.
Mercedes
Are we looking at the inception of a team capable of taking over the championship from Red Bull, well many people would think so - even without the assistance of Ross Brawn at the helm Mercedes are making significant strides towards the title. Retaining the same pair of drivers that brought the team's most successful season since their return as a factory outfit there a lot of positives coming out of Brakley at the moment. Only Williams have been able to keep up on raw pace with McLaren and Ferrari just out of range a little further down. On top of that - barring a significant front wing failure on the first day in Jerez - reliability has also been rather good. Does this mean we should all rush out and place bets on a Mercedes driver claiming the title - well maybe if you're into that sort of thing - but remember these are very early days in a controlled testing environment. Trundling around Bahrain, working an individual program is nothing like a highly charged qualifying session and even less like the stresses of putting a car through a full race weekend. Weaknesses that were not visible in tesitng could flare up - this championship is certainly not done and dusted before we begin, it would be silly to think otherwise. Even though the team does have a pedigree of dominating testing and then wiping the floor with the competition when it was in the Brawn GP guise...
Red Bull
Oh how the mighty have fallen... or have they. We all know testing has not gone well for Red Bull only doing 21 more laps than Lotus in Jerez who didn't even turn up was a diabolical start to the season. Leaving the team with a lot of ground to catch up in Bahrain, and even there they were more than comfortably behind the top running teams on pace. It is an odd turn of events when Caterham are now the most productive Renault engined team on reliability if not pace. While Toro Rosso set the fastest lap time for a Renault powered car, so Red Bull can't really be considered to be on top of anything at this point in time - their times place them in the mid-field just ahead of Sauber. Vettel himself has suggested that it will take a race of attrition for Red Bull to score points in Australia. So where does this place Daniel Ricciardo then, intially happy to move to big team only to find Vergne in the old car setting a stronger pace on a similar level of poor reliability. Oh dear oh dear. But - this is Red Bull with huge resources and expertise on tap to make up the difference, it wouldn't surprise me if by the end of the season if Vettel is running away to victories over half a second away from the field. I think in a parallel situation in Australia Jamie Whincup for Red Bull Racing Australia (who are almost equally as dominant usually) summed up the problem well when he pointed out that in his category each title defence year is harder than the last... and this one is the hardest ever. Maybe if the German bloke has to fight wheel-to-wheel in the mid-pack people won't be quite so tempted to boo his efforts behind the wheel.
Overall, looking at how testing has gone it would appear that you need a Mercedes engine to be successful, at least until the others catch up. The Ferrari power unit seems almost comparable on pace but the fuel consumption problem will compromise their overall race time as they are forced to conserve fuel towards the final laps of a race. As for Renault, they have the most work to do, under pressure from Christian Horner and the Red Bull team to do that work as quickly as possible. But if it is just Renault's fault, why are Caterham completing as many laps as they are on a consistent basis - is the slow pace of the Caterham team a reflection of the performance hit you need to take just to keep the Renault power plant alive for any reasonable amount of time. Normally testing provides a few answers as to what to expect - roughly - when the cars touch down in Melbourne, this season is very different. We have no idea what is going to happen, Marussia look like they could steal points if reliability is as poor as it is feared and the Australian GP turns into a Michael Bay movie with over the top mayhem. Either way 2014 threatens to be infinitely more exciting than 2013 (especially post tyre change) and makes the anticipation for the first session at the end of the week even more powerful. Bring it on.
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