Round 1: Australia 2014 - Preview

Greetings Internet,

We waited, and then we waited - and some of the world waited some more - but that wait has finally come to an end - almost. This is where we find out precisely how much insanity is going to be caused by the new regulations. Will the ERS be significant enough to render DRS obsolete and how many cars will actually complete the Australian GP. As noted in an earlier post, people have been combing the regulations to see what would happen if everyone breaks down - but I seriously doubt things will get that bad. Albert Park is an unique event, and has and will continue to throw up some mad races with high attrition, before and after large regulation changes and someone has always finished in the most chaotic of events. With money taking over so much of the sport at the moment with pay drivers and tracks built for the corporate guests rather than the racing, it nice to see that Australia still hosts the first race. Abu-Dhabi has bought itself the finale slot with the farcical double points rule (there will be no double bonus points) but Bahrain has been kept off the top spot after the complete mess it was in 2010 with the alternate layout. There is a spectacular atmosphere about the race being in Melbourne - even if I am thousands of miles away in Blog HQ - and it encapsulates the anticipation and excitement beautifully.

As well as the somewhat mutated cars we have now - which I am getting more and more used to there are some sporting regulations that have been slipped in under the radar in the past couple of days with reference to qualifying. It appears that the powers that be have taken a leaf out of Bernie's rulebook - where if you've done something silly, do or say something even sillier to distract people from the first infraction. So the initial problem was that drivers had to start the race on the tyres they set the fastest lap with in the final part of qualifying. The whole world agrees that this rule backfired as it meant it was advantageous not to take part in Q3 at times - so instead of abolishing the rule, the idea now is that the top 10 start the race on the same set of tyres they used in Q2... Sometimes I wonder if the monkey at the controls of the rule making committee has got more than a few screws loose. Still it is not as mental as the double points fiasco...

Albert Park

Albert Park 2014

Nestled in central Melbourne the venue for our opening race is picturesque, accessible and bounded by an armada of camouflaged walls - because if they weren't painted green less people would crash into them. Judging by how Australian motorsport has played out thus far during the V8 Supercar event at Adelaide, crashing is definitely on the agenda. Despite being a temporary track situated on the public roads encircling a boating lake the layout is wider than some permanent circuits and just as fast, because it doesn't rely on conventional road map topologies.  But just outside the painted lines denoting the track limits (...yes here we go again) are those concrete barriers - the only run-off being at the braking areas of the most substantial braking zones and on the outside of the fast chicane.

It has been the scene of many opening round demoltion derbies, in 2001 and 2002 we had cars sailing through the air, the latter causing the significant pile-up pictured below. Then again in 2008 more turn one accidents with Fisichella almost being upended, in a race which featured four safety cars and a rather airborne Toyota containing Timo Glock. So if apply the potential for carnage with a grid of cars which threaten to break down and disintegrate at any time we are in for a lot of fun. Something you wouldn't get if this was all shipped out to Bahrain instead (even if Bahrain 2013 was brilliant), the track may not be a picture of complexity and over-engineering like many of the newer venues but it does a wonderful job, far better than the likes of Shanghai or especially Abu-Dhabi. Long live the Australian GP opening at Albert Park (although I would accept a return to Adelaide - because the destruction would be ramped up there).


The Form Guide

Retirements Left, Right and Centre?

The feeling around the paddock and the internet is that this race is Mercedes' to lose, the testing pace and reliability have been better than anyone else and if it holds up they should be on for a Brawn GP-esque victory. The people at Red Bull have laughably suggested that Mercedes could win the race with a two lap margin of victory... which is rather excessive and almost grumpy from the team that have lost the most ground. Yet Mercedes themselves have not said that this is a done deal - because testing and racing conditions are completely different things, the car might be fragile in wheel-to-wheel combat. Lewis has already had one wing failure so the win is still up for grabs.

Realistically however, you'd have to think the win will be handed to a Mercedes powered car given their apparent advantage - most favourably Williams and then McLaren could be the alternate victors to the factory team. Force India are also running the Mercedes engine but don't seem to have the same advantage as the others languishing behind McLaren as the last of the Mercedes runners. Ferrari could well be in the mix, just a comfortable distance away from the front, even the power of Raikkonen and Alonso can't overcome the deficit it seems the team have in relation to the main Mercedes runners. They could have a go at McLaren and should finish ahead of Force India - provided they finish of course.

The Renault powered teams are in for a very difficult weekend, Red Bull and Lotus have had particularly limited running with Toro Rosso not doing too much better. That leaves Caterham as the team looking most likely to get two cars across the line - albeit a long time after anyone else remaining has finished which could net them their first points ever. In a way the same goes for Marussia in the other backmarking team, but their reliability record is a long way short of what Caterham have achieved without having any more pace to fall back on. It is races like this that the bottom teams look forward to - the likes of Minardi have scored many a point in Melbourne at the hands of Webber for example in 2002 recording a 5th place. That was only two points back then so there is plenty to aim for this time around.

I feel this is going to be a race of attrition - not as extreme as some fear - as it is the first time the new ERS boost system is applied in racing conditions alongside DRS and whatever other gimmick sneaks onto the playing field in the forthcoming hours.