Round 2: Malaysia 2014: Review

Greetings Internet,

What an incredibly vibrant and entertaining race we didn't have this morning, in an event when the curse of Mark Webber's car lives on as we saw Daniel Ricciardo's day completely disintegrate over a relatively short period of time. Last season we saw one German Bloke taking win after win in brutally dominant style, however that baton has been passed to a German team. If the this race on the first permanent circuit of the season is an omen for what is to come, then we are in for a very challenging year - and the field is going to be completely crushed week in week out. Only three cars in the top ten were not powered by Mercedes engines today - and that is with one of the car not starting the race.

There was some threat from the weather, but twas not to be - it's the same story we were told for virtually the entire second half of the 2013 season - a risk of rain in the dying period of the race which never materialised. I sort of get the feeling that the threat of rain is exaggerated just so that the latter phase is laced with hope for more excitement. I can foresee the events, or lack thereof, of today being used to discredit and fuel complaints about this new form of racing. To make matters worse the wide expanses of the Malaysian GP circuit made the cars sound much quieter as it wasn't reverberating off the walls like it was in Melbourne, so we need to brace ourselves as the naysayers are coming. I can admit today's race was not a supreme example of everything F1 can be, but the nature of the track doesn't promote high intensity unpredictability when it stays dry...

The Race

Unlike yesterday BBC presenter Suzy Perry couldn't harness the power of the weather and command the clouds to do their worst and shake things up. So we were treated to high temperatures and clear-ish skies with reports of storms several miles clear of the circuit. Based on the performances in the dry practice and the wet qualifying it appeared that we needed some rain to give anyone a chance of catching the Mercedes and their superior pace. Before the start of the race Force India's Sergio Perez was ruled out with technical difficulties.

When the lights went out Hamilton just drove off into the lead and was never seen of again, Rosberg followed his team mate through into second place despite been squeezed towards the pitwall by Vettel. Sebastian then tried to defend from Ricciardo, almost pushing the other Red Bull into Alonso, but lost the place to the Australian through the opening two corners. Elsewhere everyone else was well behaved - up until turn four anyway - there Bianchi span the car into the side of Maldonado's Lotus. Jules likely confused at seeing a Lotus running on track, both cars recovered with the Marussia suffering a rear puncture. Neither car would finish the race however due to technical difficulties later on. We also established that the new narrower front wings do not prevent punctures as Kevin Magnussen made contact with Kimi Raikkonen's rear wheel. Kevin lost quite a lot of front wing elements and Kimi lost a tyre and a lot of time crawling back to the pits to repair it.

Jules Bianchi was given the first of this season's new penalties - a 5 second pit stop extension penalty - where a driver has to remain stationary in the pitbox for 5 seconds before the crew can start working on the car. Unlike a conventional penalty which has to be taken within three laps, this one only comes into effect on the next scheduled stop. Because Magnussen was missing a significant amount of downforce he started to drop down the field falling behind Jenson in the other McLaren. He then came under attack from both Williams, building up a queue of cars which stretched back to the two Saubers in 15th place. This train of cars played into the hands of Daniil Kvyat and his all powerful death stare. The Russian's first target was Esteban Gutierrez who was quickly dispatched then Daniil didn't spend too long behing Romain Grosjean in the only remaining Lotus car.

Just as Bottas got on the radio telling Massa to hurry up and pass Magnussen or get out of the way, the damaged McLaren was called into pit lane to replace the front wing and get some new tyres. Within half a lap of Kevin rejoining the race, race control announced that the Dane had one of those new pit stop extension penalties...after he'd completed the stop. The penalty would have to wait until the next one. It was the time for pitstops overall, most of which failed to make any impression on the running order - although Alonso came very close to taking 4th from Ricciardo when the  Australian rejoined. Ricciardo had to hang on round the outside of the Ferrari in turn two to claim the inside for turns three and four to stay ahead of the Spaniard. For a brief moment of time during this pit-stop phase Nico Hulkenberg lead in the Force India who was running an alternative strategy.

As example of how little was going on throughout the field, the TV camera director discovered what was going on down at the bottom of the field - where we saw Marcus Ericsson fighting hard with Vergne ahead of Raikkonen. A duel which lasted approximately two corners and then the emptiness resumed. So much emptiness that the Mercedes team out front were able to turn the engines down at one third distance. In comparison to Australia the field was very spread out - huge gulfs between each other - Jenson was completely alone in 7th place miles away from anyone. As was Hulkenberg several seconds up the road in 6th place, and barring one change that was where they were going to finish in 30 laps time. Such was the level of stagnation within the field.

So we roll several laps forward to the next series of stops and the beginning of the end for Daniel Ricciardo - when the Australian came in for some new tyres the team only affixed three of the tyres. So he had to pull the car over half-way down the pit lane so the team could roll it back and try again. This escapade cost Daniel an entire lap as he came back out behind Alonso, of course he was slapped with an obligatory 10s stop-go penalty for an unsafe release. After he'd served his penalty things went from bad to worse as the front wing partially fell off the Red Bull and disintegrated, cutting a groove in a front tyre in the process. A few laps after that issue was repaired Ricciardo came back to the pits to retire the car and end a tormented phase of the race. We've also got information that Ricciardo has been handed a 10 place grid drop for Bahrain and Red Bull are being investigated for incorrect crew protective gear in the pit-lane. Potentially the grid penalty is a result of Ricciardo not actually serving the penalty during the race when the BBC said he had...

With Daniel removed from contention, we also saw Adrian Sutil, and Jean Eric Vergne retire with technical difficulties - and given the extreme amount of caution the stewards observed in qualifying it was surprising not to see a safety car for the shards of Red Bull front wing. A couple of laps later Esteban Gutierrez had to retire his Sauber as well, and then were down to the same number of finishers we had in Australia - and for the most part, all the positions were locked in. It was also about this time that the first hints of rain were introduced - timed conveniently with the time that the action had shut down, offering a faint glimmer of hope that things were going to improve.

Down at Williams there some interesting radio communications as both cars caught up to the back of Jenson Button's McLaren - it appeared that Bottas was the faster of the pairing and wanted past. Now there are several ways of communicating this information to Massa in their battle with Jenson - but the team decided to use the message "Valtteri is faster than you". The exact message which sparked the massive team-order fiasco at Ferrari with Alonso in Hockenheim a few years ago - which is a very unfortunate choice of words frankly. Massa decided not to listen to this message, or any of the subsequent calls from the team instructing him to let his team-mate through. As this battle stagnated there were no more competitions within the points - the only on track battle was between Raikkonen in 12th and Grosjean in 11th - in a Lotus which was miraculously still running.

The race came to an anti-climactic end with Hamilton cruising to victory 13 seconds clear of anyone else only using 90% of the fuel available with the engines turned down. It was crushingly brutal domination, followed home by Rosberg in the other car - a 100% pole and victory record for Mercedes this season - and so far no-one has finished ahead of a Mercedes on track. Sebastien Vettel completed the race in 3rd place, so much for Red Bull being miles off the pace in pre-season, while Alonso brought the Ferrari home in 4th place. Another strong result for Hulkenberg saw the Force India home in 5th ahead of Jenson Button and the feuding Williams drivers in 7th and 8th. The points positions were rounded off by Magnussen in 9th and the death stare powers of Daniil Kvyat.

The Bonus Points Championship Points Winners

It is these races where handing out points is far more complicated, because everyone just drove around in position, waiting for the DRS to create an overtaking opportunity - besides Ricciardo, even the attrition wasn't massively unpredictable. It would be an excuse for half points frankly - but no I will persevere and find things to hand points to...

25pts - Lewis Hamilton - Because that was utterly dominant - but don't expect full points again
18pts - Romain Grosjean - For not retiring in a Lotus, and was only one place away from a point
15pts - Nico Hulkenberg - Making a two stop strategy work to score some more points
12pts - Felipe Massa - For effectively telling team orders to get stuffed
10pts - Daniel Ricciardo - For taking the fight to Vettel in the beginning, and then to Alonso later on
8pts -  Valtteri Bottas  - From 18th to 8th after another grid penalty deserves some points
6pts -  Jenson Button - For holding off the armada of quarrelling Williams drivers
4pts -Kamui Kobayashi - Equalling the best position for a bottom team in 2014 on his first completed race
2pts - Daniil Kvyat - Because the death stare said there should be points
1pt - Andy Jordan - For winning the first race of the BTCC season this afternoon

The Penalty Points Championship

Not too much to add to proceedings following today's race, because not too much happened in general to award penalty points to. But there is one point that needs to be handed out, and that goes to Red Bull because they made a right hash of Ricciardo's race, and when I find out who gave that message to Felipe Massa - they shall receive a penalty point too.

Looking ahead to Bahrain

From one Tilke track to another, exchanging the damp heat of the tropics for the dry heat of the desert - except this time will be slightly different. Because it has been decided that the 2014 Bahrain GP is going to be a night race - in previous years that would have been a horrible idea given the troubles the country was going through. Many teams didn't want to travel around in the dark never mind host the entire event in it - but temperatures should be cooler and help those struggling with cooling.

Will things be any different when we arrive in the desert, probably not I foresee another bout of Mercedes domination but we shall have to wait and see.

Round 2: Malaysia 2014 - Qualifying

Greetings Internet,

When I mentioned monsoon conditions yesterday in the pre-weekend post, and we certainly got more than our fair share of precipitation this afternoon. The tropical downpours unleashed great fury upon the Malaysian circuit virtually at the command of the BBC - just as Suzy mentioned the idea of rainfall the skies opened up and drowned the track. What we can determine from this is that although Sky have been trying to take over the coverage with their big budgets and shiny graphics, the BBC have employed one of Charles Xavier's students to control the weather. If only we could harness that power to introduce some rainfall whenever the on track action becomes a little tiresome - not too much though given how over-cautious the powers that be are when it comes to suspending and action at the merest puddle.

Thankfully after 50 minutes of sitting around watching rivers flow across the track and manhole covers uprooted by the force of the water we did get some on track action. It did happen to tear us away from the nice sounding engine note of the big, brutal Mercedes SLS safety car running sighting laps which in the height of the storm was powersliding down through turn three. We were also taken away from one of Coulthard's rain delay bird watching sessions - picking up on some of the camera director's more artistic shots. Did this interestingly timed storm rearrange the distribution of power within the field - well almost.

Qualifying 

Once the rain had finally cleared the track started to dry quickly because of the huge ambient temperature of the tropics, it would be an opportune time to allow qualifying to start - but apparently not. We had to wait a even longer before it was time for intermediate tyres, which is always a complaint of the past few years, excessive caution. I know safety is a major consideration, but seriously why allow the wet tyres if the track conditions they are specifically designed for are banned... Anyhow we eventually got going and it was the Mercedes team who sat at the end of the pit-lane first and anchored themselves to the top of the timings and were not to be challenged. Ferrari and Red Bull were duelling to be best of the rest Alonso and Ricciardo shared ownership of third place well over a second behind the top two silver cars.

At the bottom end of the field fighting to avoid relegation there was one Lotus less than we expected struggling to make it into Q2, because Romain Grosjean was up in the middle of the pack in the damp conditions. His immediate rivals were starting to lose their chance to escape relegation because the rainfall had started to intensify on track, reducing grip and compromising lap times. McLaren were the only team to make progress, as Jenson and Kevin secured their place in Q2. But as the session was coming to a close the red flag was brought out after Marcus Ericsson bounced his car off the barrier after sliding off the painted lines in turn three. As there was only 35 seconds left on the clock, Q3 was not restarted.

Q2

And thus we moved swiftly and damply onto Q2 and for once the drivers were allowed to use the full wet tyres without being forced to hide in the garage and wait - and as Raikkonen found out - the intermediates were not up to the job. But just as the session began we were back under red-flag conditions, another accident, monolithic super-storm, global armageddon? Nope - a tiny piece of wing endplate was sitting on the very edge of the track (either that or Kvyat used the power of the death stare)... The damage was a result of Daniil Kvyat colliding with the front wheel of Alonso's Ferrari - it turns out that the front of the Ferrari isn't as robust as the rear suspension. However the pointless red flag allowed enough time for the team to put on a new control arm, but the steering would be a little out for the remainder of the session.

On the restart it was Bottas who tried the intermediates and had no grip, sliding out of control and struggling to keep the car on the track - while everyone else stuck to the full wet tyres. Surprise, surprise as the two Mercedes' lead the times again, this time Ricciardo intervened once more - putting the Red Bull into second place, soon to replaced by Vettel in the other blue car. Continuous rain made it difficult for many drivers to improve - both McLarens sneaked through into the top ten despite Magnussen sliding through the gravel in the final corner. This rain made life difficult for Williams, because in the wet their relative pace is slower than their dry performance. It is suggested that this phenomena is a result of the car having poorer downforce, but the superior Mercedes engine makes up for it in the dry, a similar story with Force India as Perez has struggled to qualify in the damp in Australia as well as this weekend. In the end the final spot in Q1 fell to Jean Eric Vergne after he just edged out Kvyat - I sense there will be a more than liberal use of the death stare back in the Toro Rosso paddock...

Q3

In this final session the track was at it's wettest with the rain remaining fairly constant, but that didn't stop Mercedes taking a provisional pole position on the very first lap, nearly two seconds faster than the baseline time set by Kimi Raikkonen. It would have been another 1-2 but Vettel and Alonso intervened and placed themselves into second and third place respectively. The entire of the top ten were naturally running on the full wet tyres with the exception of Jenson Button, who was gambling on the rain to stop and the track to dry by running on the intermediate tyres. Unfortunately the for him, the rain continued and conditions subtly declined. As a result the final part of the session turned out be a little anti-climactic as no-one was able to improve on the laps they set at the very beginning. That is except Rosberg, but we've come to understand that the conventional rules no longer apply to the performance of the Mercedes powered cars - specifically the factory team. In the end Hamilton claimed his second pole position of the season ahead of Sebastian Vettel, because Red Bull are clearly off the pace. With Rosberg taking third place away from Alonso's car.

The Bonus Points Championship Points Winners

It has been another challenging qualifying session in inclement conditions, even though the initial delay was a mite excessive in waiting for intermediate tyre conditions, and therefore there were plenty of opportunities for some bonus points. And here are the winners from Malaysian GP qualifying.

• 10pts - Fernando Alonso - Dragging the car into fourth place with compromised steering following the accident with Kvyat.
• 8pts - Romain Grosjean  - For dragging the ruined Lotus into Q2 and for the most part of that session ahead of other cars
• 6pts - Esteban Gutierrez - Considerably faster than his more experienced team-mate in a relatively weak Sauber at the moment
• 5pts - Bernd Maylander - Because those safety car laps sounded awesome and more sliding about
• 4pts - Lewis Hamilton - Pole position generally deserves some points - even if it is a little easy in the Mercedes
• 3pts - Pastor Maldonado - Actually managed to out-qualify some cars this time around
• 2pts - Valtteri Bottas/Jules Bianchi - They can have two points each for the coolest powerslides of the day
• 1pt - Suzy Perry - For being able to command the weather, can't buy that power can you Sky

The Penalty Points Championship

There were two post session investigations in the stewards office, the first being between Bottas and Ricciardo for blocking in Q2 - this resulted in a grid drop for Valtteri and two penalty points in the FIA's scoring system. This seems more than a little excessive, I think Bottas was on a flying lap and therefore shouldn't have to jump out of the way for the Red Bull - but the stewards are never known for their logic and consistency. The second case was Daniil's accident with Fernando - but I imagine strategic use of the death stare prevented the Russian getting any form of penalty, in reality it was a racing incident... only in qualifying. So where does this leave penalty points...

• 2pts - The Stewards - Get two points, one for leaving it so long to start the session, and a second for slapping penalties galore on Bottas for what seemed like a none event on the track
• 1pt - Daniel Ricciardo - For royally kicking off with Bottas for no apparent reason, the Red Bull is quick enough for it not to be a problem - just because you're in a big team doesn't give you special priorities... or at least is shouldn't
• 1pt - Dietrich Mateschitz - For threatening to withdraw just because Red Bull are no longer a dominant force, and not having the utopian sport he wants...

Looking to tomorrow

There are no more rain showers predicted for tomorrow morning, and therefore we should have a much drier race - and therefore Ferrari don't need to restock the ice cream cabinet for another Raikkonen lunch break. But saying that, the initial weather reports suggested that today was going to be dry... look at how well that one played out. Strangely today's monsoon hasn't given us a completely random grid with cars out of position. The top runners are at the front and the bottom two teams are anchored to the bottom two rows, which on a track which isn't known for huge amounts of excitement doesn't bode well for an entertaining race on the Sunday morning. However, the landscape of F1 is very different now, many of those cars may not make it to the end because humidity and intense heat challenge the cooling systems and general reliability on these new cars. 

But if it is action you're looking for I suspect that Bottas will be interesting to watch coming back from another grid penalty, and the walls this time are more difficult to hit. Both Williams will be stronger if it does remain dry and so will the McLarens coming from the bottom end of the top ten. I sense 2014 will be a season of surprises and Malaysia tomorrow will be the next instalment in that journey. But remember the BTCC looks to be just as engaging tomorrow and the day ends with the Indycar GP of St Petersberg (in Florida not Russia). Just what Mother's day needs lots and lots of motorsport....

Round 2: Malaysia 2014 - Preview

Greetings Internet,

Some of you might have noticed that it is indeed Friday, that part of the week where everyone forgets that they have jobs to do and spend the entire day being lazy - and in certain unfathomable circles is concluded with a confusing amount of alcoholic beverages. It is widely accepted that Friday is one of the few days of the week many humans have developed a tolerance for. However a Friday is also the day after this particular publication should have been released... because somehow I actually managed to forget there is a GP this weekend. In fact this weekend is one of the most hectic racing weekends of this part of the year as BTCC and Indycar have their opening races along with the V8 Supercars competing in Tasmania. How all of that managed to escape my cranium makes no sense whatsoever, but many, many other things have been performing the same disappearing act recently.

Anyway, back with the program, and the grid has arrived in the tropical environment of Malaysia still feuding about some niggling little complaints that arose in Melbourne. Several people have jumped on the 'F1 is too quiet' bandwagon including a certain Mr Vettel - yet I assume that his car is quiet because it doesn't work... Red Bull are set to protest the fuel flow rate infraction which cost Ricciardo a home race podium by challenging the FIA. It does seem that since Red Bull have fallen off their all dominant plinth they've lost the plot slightly - Red Bull overlord Dietrich even threatened to withdraw support if the sound didn't improve. Of course this is all just ludicrous nonsense geared to score some big headlines, even Bernie now is retracting some of his criticism of the engine note. Here at Blog HQ I don't see why everyone is complaining - the cars are fast enough, and go sideways a lot now, but we get to hear exactly what's going on - how is that a bad thing. Lotus for one would be glad to hear an engine running in the present climate - because neither of theirs has for any prolonged period of time. Even after FP1 and FP2 this morning neither Lotus car has completed a continuous race distance - in the tropical humidity that is going to be a bigger challenge this race.

The Venue

Sepang arrived on the calendar towards the end of 1999 season and was the scene of more controversy when Ferrari were excluded for barge-board illegalities (but being Ferrari they were re-instated) later on. It does carry the stigma of being a Tilke designed track as one of his first contributions to the landscape of F1 we have come to know and despise. It is a track of contrasts, some of it is well designed and flows well from corner to corner - while other elements look like he ran of scalextric pieces and the two edges of the track didn't quite meet up. Just like so many of his other designs it appears that the facilities for the hospitality and sponsors (the people with the money) were prioritized above all else. Although in Sepang that attention to detail is less pronounced but no less present - just built to 1999 levels of design and architecture, so there was some room in the budget to actually work on the track... Unlike what seems to have taken place in Abu-Dhabi.

The first noticeable characteristic is that the track is massively wide, which I think was an initial plan to improve overtaking but has only resulted in being a template for all hyper-modern venues to follow. In places it dwarfs the cars, especially on the two main straights. With all this space and evidently money, how did the first two corners end up so mangled and compact - I don't mind slow corners at the start of the lap - but having two increasingly tighter hairpins it taking that concept too far. I can only assume it was one of those designs that looked nice and arty on paper and impressed some rich investors, but out in the real world is a horrific miscarriage of track engineering. If the whole track looked like this it would be a broken twisted abomination. Fortunately it isn't...

Outside of the hideous opening complex the track opens up nicely, a gentle descent through turn three feeds into an uphill entry to a DRS free overtaking spot in turn four. This opens out into a couple of high speed sweepers - which in these new cars I am hoping are far more of a challenge than they used to be - Max Chilton had a slight spin here in FP2, but that's no real yardstick of downforce and drive ability really. The next two corners however saw Fernando pointing the car in the wrong direction in FP1, the formerly easy double apex corner has become more noteworthy now some of the rear wing is banned. At which point we conclude the really fun part of the track.

The final sector, initiated by a slow uphill hairpin introduced us to another Tilke favorite of the time, one which never really caught on thankfully. The decreasing radius corner, which tightens the further round the corner you are - a nightmare for cars with an understeering setup problem as it is rather easy to run wide. At least there is some grass on the outside to run onto instead of those health and safety tarmac wastelands (although I see they have started to infect turn 8 with such a curse). The last of these decreasing radius corners is coupled with a high entry speed just make it more annoying (but at least they are not as bad as the ones in the latest upgrade of the Fuji circuit...). It gets rather simple after that with two long straights split by a 180-ish degree corner to end the lap - it almost makes me wonder whether Tilke knew about the coming plague of DRS by putting these long straights in from the very beginning - Malaysia,China, Bahrain and Istanbul all had them and all were devised before DRS was introduced... it is all very odd.

The Form Guide

More monsoons in Malaysia?

On the basis of the last race in Australia we might as well give the trophy to Mercedes and pack the bags for the next race without bothering on Sunday morning. Combine that with the tropical climate and cooling problems for other teams and it might widen the gap yet further, as noted Lotus are still miles behind and they aren't the only ones. However times this morning have been interesting, and closer than anticipated, Ferrari have upped their game and Raikkonen has been less than two tenths slower than the Mercedes in both sessions.  Will there be a Ferrari/Mercedes face off for pole - possibly - while McLaren, Williams and Red Bull are not too much further behind them.

Because so many teams are closer to the front running pace, the mid-field seems more thinned out - like we saw in Australia - Sauber appear to be battling with Lotus (In the fractions of time their cars are running for) all by themselves. Force India and Toro Rosso have vanished off ahead and the financial rift in F1 has well and truly opened up. The two teams who were honest about their money troubles are the ones struggling to keep ahead of Caterham and Marussia. The only car that upset those rankings last race was Perez, running down the field while Hulkenberg was scoring points - admittedly the Mexican was hit by fellow countryman on the opening lap in Melbourne. So when Sergio moves forward as well the is central group gets even less populous.

Then we have the two bottom teams, in this new era of F1 it is a chance for these cars to get forward and steal points when others retire... It hasn't quite worked so well only one of the cars finished in Australia - which obviously was Chilton - his finishing record is about as bizarre as Kvyat's death stare. So unless they can cure some reliability woes those points seem as far fetched as they have always been - and you'd think given how conservative Caterham had gone on cooling they'd have finished. Anyway Malaysia is a very different test in very different conditions (although the same tropical monsoons that have affected the search for flight MH-370 may dampen proceedings once more)

The Malaysian GP is never the most memorable event on the calendar - except for that washed out race in 2009 which introduced the world to Kimi's love of ice-cream and Bermuda shorts in the pouring rain. So much so that I managed to forget it was on this week, but the cars are different and have found challenges that didn't exist before. Challenges that can make a track like the Sepang circuit be as difficult as it was originally designed to be before downforce ironed it all out. It is going to be another intriguing weekend and another voyage into the unknown - but for out an out entertainment and action, make sure to catch the BTCC session from Brands Hatch, that promises to be spectacular.

Round 1 - Australia 2014: Race

Internet, 

Many, many hours ago - there was a race, a race that the whole world had been waiting for during those long cold and quiet months over the winter. It race which was shrouded in mystery, intrigue and anticipation, and one that certainly delivered. Even after the flag dropped over half a day ago now the result has been taken apart and reconfigured - one of the consequences of the strange new world we now live in. All of the retirements today have been traced back to technical difficulties, even the ones that resulted in shattered carbon fibre down in turn one. In contrast to the fears over huge rates of attrition, today's race only saw a few more casualties than a conventional trip to Albert Park - although I get the feeling that Mr Horner intends to add to the retirement list when he visits the appeal panel later on. 

At the completion of the first weekend of the season I can safely say that the worries about the sound the tiny little engines are unfounded - F1 is just is good as it was in the previous era if not better. Yes the cars are much quieter, but the engine note is far less whiney and piercing and you can hear so much more - brake lock-ups are audible and team radio is far clearer. Sacrificing a bit of volume for this clarity and a deeper growling sound was definitely worth it - and I suspect that the Renault engines in the Red Bull team may sound even more different once Horner has finished kicking it around the garage. A kicking that the entire Lotus team might well join in on after their disappointing afternoon. Overall there are some quite unhappy faces up and down the pit-lane... and some of those happened to be in the garage of the pre-season favourites. No-one is safe from little technical gremlins.

The Race

After the highly changeable conditions of qualifying, Sunday morning provided an air of stability leaving any unpredictability in the hands of the drivers and the fragile machinery they were sitting in. Grosjean opted to start in the pit lane, all by himself - it appeared his grumbling to the Lotus team might have influenced the decision to kick him out of the garage a little too early. However Max Chilton noticed that Romain was alone in the pit lane and wouldn't leave the grid on the formation lap, and thus was pushed into the queue behind the Lotus. This left Bianchi on the grid without a team-mate, so the actual start was aborted while his Marussia was also pushed into the pit-lane - but Jules' car was more broken than Max's was and wouldn't leave the pits until 7 laps into the race. 

So one additional formation lap later, we had a proper start - all but one of Hamilton's six cylinders roared into action and were swiftly passed by both Rosberg and Ricciardo. Magnussen in 4th executed a powerslide in the middle of the straight which the Dane miraculously kept out of the wall, and out of Fernando Alonso's Ferrari. Down at turn one Kamui was having less of a near miss and more of an accident - a post race investigation showed that the Caterham encountered brake failure... which is considerably less than ideal. As a result he ploughed into the rear corner of Raikkonen's Ferrari (which somehow remained undamaged) and then creamed straight into the back of Massa's Williams wiping both cars out of the race. If that wasn't enough, down at turn three Esteban Gutierrez had more issues slowing down and span himself round after bouncing off the side of Perez's Force India. For now this brought an end to the melee... without needing to involve the safety car... for now...

It would be a bit silly if, in this very early stage if some championship contenders were to encounter some race ending technical difficulties - well the first to complain was a certain German Bloke pointing out that all of his electric boost had failed. Leaving the car powerless to out-pace even the slowest cars and therefore had to retire. Then there was Hamilton, in the supposed fastest and most reliable car on the grid - that final cylinder never recovered and he lost positions rapidly - this lead to a series of discussions with the team all of which were completely indecisive, but retirement was inevitable for the pole-sitter. With four cars down inside the first five laps, the projected attrition would see the entire field missing by lap 22. Fortunately there were some good news stories coming through the field.

Both our remaining champions starting outside the top ten had sneaked into the points by staying on the road and not getting involved in the early action - but the Williams that didn't have shards of Caterham sticking out of it was motoring forwards. Bottas had to start 15th due to a technical penalty, and now was duelling with the two Toro Rosso's. First he made a clean pass on Kyvat down the inside of turn 13 and followed that up with an even more impressive overtake round the outside of Vergne in turn three. His next target was Raikkonen's Ferrari with the invincible rear suspension - also the only man on grid who I suspect is immune to the Kvyat death stare. The Russian's face always seems angry - and I thought driving a fast car in the points would be a good thing, but what do I know, perhaps he is allergic to a certain Austrian energy drink. Anyway it is worth noting that both of the Lotus cars were still running, even if they were miles off the pace and away from the points. Even more impressive is that neither Maldonado or Grosjean had hit anyone or put it in the wall after the car looked impossible to control safely on Saturday.

Life was far more serene at the front - Rosberg became the leading Mercedes representative ahead of Ricciardo as their world champion team-mates watched on from the pitwall. Magnussen sat in a comfortable 3rd place and Hulkenberg was in a considerably less comfortable 4th place. Nico had collected a train of cars lead by Alonso - who undoubtedly was having flashbacks to Korea last year, and also contained Bottas, Kimi, Button and the Toro Rosso's. It was turning into an interesting battle, wouldn't it be shame if something was to freeze the race to cancel out this turbulent group of cars. Cue Bottas pushing a little too hard in trying to pass Fernando, and with a little wheelspin just drifted into the wall on the exit of turn 10 - cracking the rear wheel. This left Valtteri's tyre and half a rear wheel lying in the track bringing out the safety car. 

This automatically instigated the first round of stops, which was timed brilliantly for Jenson who was able to jump both Kvyat and Vergne, while Kimi went the other way in order to keep the pits clear for Alonso - the joys of being a number two driver at Ferrari. Although it turned out that both Ferraris had electrical problems and were down on power anyway. This safety car also allowed Bottas, with a new rear wheel to join the queue in 15th and last (even though Bianchi was still running 8 laps down now and was technically last). But within two laps the Finn was back up to 11th - which highlighted the massive gulf of pace between Sauber and Lotus, and the rest of the field as they were so easily picked off by the Williams before the DRS had been re-activated. Both Grosjean and Maldonado were around five seconds per lap slower than Rosberg vanishing away out front.

As the field has started to thin out and spread out, the race dramatically calmed down, only Bottas was making waves, passing cars that he'd had to pass before he was caught out by those dangerously camouflaged green concrete walls. This time round the passes were a lot easier, other drivers seemed to jump out of the way - Raikkonen out-braked himself into turn 9, potentially a reflection of the electrical issues affecting the KERS brake recovery function. Daniil Kyvat held his ground - probably using the power of his steely glare alone - but Bottas used the DRS down the main straight to take the place. 

At half distance, reliability started to look rather good - only three car failures taking four cars out of the race, none of which affected the least prepared team... until now. Maldonado's Lotus had given up, another ERS problem bringing the car to a halt on the inside of turn 12, safely out of the way. This was followed shortly by the retirement of Marcus Ericsson, pulling off before turn four - not surprisingly all but one of the mechanical dramas had taken place on Renault powered cars. Only Kvyat's car would be safe, it would be too scared to brake down - for fear of receiving the angry death stare. I think it is time for some new tyres - which for once no-one has actually complained about, though I reckon once the cars start functioning, the teams will need something else to shout about. Once more it was Jenson who gained the most from the second round of stops - jumping ahead of Alonso and Hulkenberg into 4th place. Not a bad day for McLaren considering how 2013 went.

Out at the front of the field, Rosberg was having a very easy time of it, over 20 seconds clear of Ricciardo - demonstrating that if the car is running, it runs fast - unstoppably fast, it is a little ominous. Fortunately we were distracted from thoughts of another season dominated by a German, a battle was brewing for second place as Magnussen had gained significantly on Ricciardo. Furthermore Button was easing closer to the pair of them as the laps started to run down. A little further back Bottas was still insisting on making progress racing up to the back Vergne's Toro Rosso. Vergne almost put the car in the wall getting out of the way in the final corner, being caught out by the sudden torque curve of these new engines. The same issue that nearly planted Magnussen in the wall at the very beginning (when we eventually got started). Valtteri has his sights firmly set on Hulkenberg as his next victim.

Despite Ricciardo and Magnussen trading lap times and getting rather close to each other, the likelihood of a pass seemed small - Red Bull reassured Daniel that he had plenty of fuel to push on which Kevin had to keep switching fuel modes. As a result the top five had settled into a consistent and stable position, only Hulkenberg and Vergne were under pressure by Bottas and Kimi respectively. In both cases it was the Finn that took the spoils - Bottas opened the DRS and passed the Hulk on the pit straight, while Vergne collected another bucket of oversteer in turn 9 handing Raikkonen the position. In other news we saw Romain Grosjean pulling the only remaining Lotus off the road with another electrical problem Meaning that 60% of the Renault powered cars had failed in some way or another (make that 80% but we'll get to that one later). In the final ten laps or so the remaining battles had cooled down and all the remaining cars made it home intact (Bianchi did finish but at 8 laps down didn't complete enough laps to be classified as a finisher).

Rosberg claimed what turned out to be an easy victory for Mercedes, and Ricciardo crossed the line in second place (but was disqualified a few hours later while I was watching the Lego movie - which is brilliant by the way). Magnssen equalled Hamilton's best finish for a rookie in his first race, and might be promoted to second if the Red Bull appeal fails. Jenson recovered from a poor qualifying to finish 4th (or 3rd depending), while Alonso weathered electrical dramas to finish 5th on the road ahead of Bottas on his second drive through the field. Hulkenberg had his team-mate considerably beaten to score points in 7th ahead of Raikkonen who also had electrical issues in the car. Toro Rosso rounded off the points as the only Renault team to be unscathed by technical issues with Vergne being stared across the line by Kyvat scoring points on his debut. And if Ricciardo is not reinstated the final point is passed onto Perez who survived an opening lap collision with Gutierrez on the opening lap.

Now, the business with Ricciardo after technical scrutineering post race it turned out that his Red Bull - at several stages during the race - had been consuming fuel too fast. As per the regulations the fastest rate at which the engine can consume fuel is 100kg per hour, which is obviously too fast to complete the race on the 100kg maximum. But it the injection rate can be turned up or down at any point i.e. on the McLaren G1-G10 steering wheel dial. It appears Ricciardo's was up too high at times and therefore had been booted out of the result. 

The Bonus Points Championship

Well, that wasn't bad for a season opener, and was miles better than anything we had to put up with in the latter half of the previous season. Even though in the end of it all we still had Chilton at the very back of the classified finishers and there was a German standing on the top step of the podium - so within the most drastic technical rule modifications, some things never change. We even had a Red Bull on the podium - even if that result has since been removed. 

• 25pts - Valtteri Bottas: Driving from 15th up into the points on two occasions, executing many brilliant passes along the way despite putting the thing in the wall early on.
• 18pts - Kevin Magnussen: For keeping it out of the wall after a mega slide at the start, and then for scoring a net second place finish on his début - one better than Hamilton, Mr Dennis does know how to pick them...
• 15pts - Daniel Ricciardo: Despite the disqualification the Australian had an amazing weekend, scoring a moral podium position. Can't compare the performance to Vettel as the German hasn't had a functioning car when it mattered
• 12pts - Jenson Button: From going out in Q2 to making it onto the podium through a very close pit entry at during the safety car and strong strategy work
• 10pts - Nico Hulkenberg - Missed out on the job at Lotus and still manages to put the car up the front end of the pack, if it wasn't for a strategy call he'd have fended off Alonso once more.
• 8pts - Nico Rosberg - A dominant win in a car that looked impervious to any challenge - so not too many points, but a win is a win nonetheless.
• 6pts - Daniil Kvyat - The Russian Rookie picks up a couple of points on his début, through the power of raw speed and a scarily aggressive facial expression.
• 4pts - Ferrari - For developing indestructible rear suspension, how that car still had all four wheels after Kobayashi's out of control Caterham crashed into it
• 2pts - Kamui Kobayashi - Gets two points for his car bowling escapades in turn one striking Kimi and Felipe after the brakes gave up.
• 1pt - Max Chilton - Scores a point for being the leading car of the bottom two teams, and for actually finishing the race keeping the streak alive... even if it was as the last classified finisher

The Penalty Points Championship

This season there will be no penalties series, because in reality that is just a matter of record - and can be found anywhere on the internet and therefore adds no value to this corner of cyberspace. So we move onto the penalty points series, a concept that the FIA has decided to borrow this year, without any hint of credit. Anyway I have decided to be lenient in this opening race - I could have handed out a point to Massa for calling for Kamui to be banned for a race. But on the information he had, there was some logic in his reasoning, even if it did border on the excessive, referencing what Grosjean did in the 2012 Belgian GP. I could have penalised Grosjean, Vettel or Maldonado for having a go at their teams because all three of them have had terrible weekends and can justifiably vent their frustrations. Although we haven't head the same amount of complaints from Hamilton when he retired... but he knows that when his car does work it is very fast.

More Mercedes Domination in Malaysia?

Just because we've completed the first race... well some people have... it doesn't mean we are over the reliability hump - the two week interval is not enough time to correct everything that has gone wrong for several teams this far. Besides the conditions in Sepang are completely different from Melbourne - the climate is tropical, very hot and very humid, which may cause problems for those cars which are marginal on cooling. Yes that means you Red Bull, it is going to be a lot harder for you to get to the end of that race. On pace it definitely seems that anyone with a Mercedes engine could have a really good weekend, Hulkenberg proved that Force India are further forward than the Bahrain tests indicated and everyone from McLaren down to Toro Rosso are quite close. The problem is that all of them have some work to catch Mercedes.

Lotus, Sauber and the bottom two teams are blatantly struggling and have less pace than they wanted. Will a more aerodynamically dependant circuit change this balance, who knows - it is far too early to tell. We shall have to wait until the final lap next time out to gain another tiny piece of the puzzle that is F1 2014.  

Round 1: Australia 2014 - Qualifying

Greetings Internet,

That was well worth waiting for, the first competitive session of 2014 has been brilliant, the first time we got to see the relative competitive strengths of the teams in a session which defines the grid for tomorrow morning. But a lot of the things we learned from pre-season testing have been completely discarded - who on earth came up with the idea that the Red Bulls would miles off the pace and that Mercedes would be completely immune to reliability problems. Because none of those developments seemed to materialise - Hamilton broke down on the firs lap of FP1 and both Red Bulls have been were inside the top 10 throughout practice. The only team that is really suffering at the moment is Lotus, who are a long way behind the development race on day one - both Maldonado and Grosjean have been more sideways than anything else (even though that does look cool) Romain even found the wall in FP2 as the car continues to misbehave.

So how does F1 2014 live up to the hype of challenging cars and a completely revised soundtrack - I know some people are against it (mostly the engine note) but on the events of a simple qualifying session it is a brilliant step forward. Watching cars powerslide on the exit of almost every corner and getting well out of shape in corners that used to be non-events is magnificent. The huge torque of the turbo engines really kicks the rear of the car out at every potential opportunity, it is truly a spectacular sight fuelled by the knowledge of how difficult it is making the cars to drive. It does make me wonder if corners like Eau Rouge, Blanchimont and 130R will suddenly become the challenge they once were when we make it that far. So with the challenge being as difficult as it is wouldn't it be a shame if Qualifying was held on a very slippery circuit - with some rain perhaps....

Q1

Due to some rule tweaks in the timing, Q1 is now two minutes shorter to allow Q3 to be two minutes longer, for the sake of two minutes I don't see why this phase had to be trimmed but the FIA are full of mad rules at the moment. The track was completely dty, but there was a threat of rain on the horizon - well slightly closer than the horizon but you get the point. Everyone queued to get out before that rain arrived, a queue lead by Mercedes parking two wide in the pit-lane (interestingly drivers have been given penalties for that in the past... but not today). Grosjean executed the first pass of the session round the outside of Rosberg in turn three - before running off the track a lap later... In fact Romain spent the majority of the session driving through the gravel and trying to stay out of the wall. Leaving that job to Vettel who gentley slapped the wall with the rear of the Red Bull on the exit of the back chicane - no damage done however.

Mercedes had enough of an advantage that they didn't bother using the softer compound tyres at all in Q1, and set the initial pace. However they were usurped by those using the faster option, Williams demonstrated that pre-season pace was definitely not a fluke and exchanged the lead position. Looking elsewhere in the field and a wild car appeared in the gravel - no prizes for guessing it was a Lotus, both of them were rooted to the back of the pack with Marissia, Gutierrez and Marcus Ericsson... Kamui however was inside the cut-off for Q2

Daniel Ricciardo put the Red Bull out front - (so much for being well off the pace) - as the rain started to fall effectively freezing the timesheets. All the rain did was give the Lotus team more reasons to run off the circuit - Maldonado saw how much fun Grosjean was having and came out just to join in. This is a parkland circuit after all and it is built for exploring - in the end Pastor failed to complete a single lap due to the multiple excursions but will be allowed to start tomorrow... Right now either Lotus is an uncontrollable unguided missile - the opening lap will be very interesting.

Q2

It was officially wet now - well intermediate level of dampness - with a prospect of the track drying out as the session went on. If the cars were sliding about in the dry, they were on the very edge of control in the wet. Bottas was several shades of sideways in the final corner, even showing signs of wheelspin down the main straight. The Williams driver eventually looped the car round in turn one after taking too much curb on entry, but was able to spin it round and keep going, only take the fasted time away from Massa. The damp conditions made the Mercedes' seem more vulnerable and unable to pull away from the field - Hamilton was only able to find 0.007s over Ricciardo in the Red Bull. However while the Australian was unleashing an immense performance the German Bloke was conspicuous by his absence down in 12th place, alongside Raikkonen's Ferrari in the relegation zone.

As track conditions slowly improved it was time for some new tyres, and because the track was damp the idea of carrying the tyres from Q2 into the race was rendered completely null and void - I guess we get to argue about that in Malaysia. In this final phase Bottas re-took the lead in the Williams but more impressive was the Russian rookie Daniil Kvyat putting the Toro Rosso into 3rd place... for now. Rosberg, Ricciardo and Alonso quickly reconfigured the top three places in their favour.

Towards the end of the session the rain started to comeback, forcing Perez into an Lotus-esque voyage into the gravel, at the same time Raikkonen in the Ferrari chose to exit the track in the opposite direction - unfortunately for Kimi there is a concrete wall which rearranged the nose of his car. While the yellows were out few drivers improved - the most impressive being Magnussen making it into Q3 with Kvyat making it a good day for the rookies. Vettel however was compromised by the yellows and got very sideways trying to make the time back - but the German bloke went out in Q2 for the first time since 2012...

Q3

During the the gap between the sessions the rain intensified - not quite to the same degree as it had last year - but it as right on the borderline between using wet and intermediate tyres, a brilliant recipe for more powerslides. As the cars danced over the painted lines there were some very close calls, Massa in particular came close to severely mashing the Williams against the wall before turning into the fast chicane making a spectacular save in the process. Hulkenberg also got very sideways when trying to put the power down in the final sector. Everyone took to the track on the wet tyre, with the exception of Fernando Alonso - but it was the Mercedes team once more who claimed an early 1-2 stalked once more by Ricciardo in that Red Bull. Alonso on the intermediates could only manage 9th place in his Ferrari only beating Massa's Williams (this time without the 'Fernando is faster than you' comment from the Ferrari team) .

Time for round two, a change of tyres later and the battle resumed for pole - because Mercedes were not quite having it having it all their own way en-route to an anticipated white-wash of the front row. Rosberg ran wide on his preparatory out-lap - losing two seconds which would later prove to be vital. But out of nowhere Magnussen went third fastest, we all thought that dumping Perez was a little mad but this Kevin chap seems rather good, almost mimicking what Hamilton achieved on his début. Speaking of Lewis - his provisional pole was beaten by Rosberg and then by Ricciardo - at which point the audience erupted (far more niceties than they showed Vettel when he departed in Q2). But having not lost those two seconds that Nico did, Lewis was able to complete another lap, a lap he used to great effect to retake pole position for the first race of the season.

The Bonus Points Championship Points Winners

After all the rambling on, the most important part of the whole day is the bonus points championship - as the challenge begins to topple Romain Grosjean's championship reign, and at the moment the Lotus team are making the championship defence really difficult.

• 10pts - Daniel Ricciardo: That was marvellous, dominating the quadruple drivers champion in the other car - even if Sebastian did have technical difficulties.
• 8pts - Kevin Magnussen: 4th place on his first qualifying session while Button didn't make the top ten equalling the best starting position for a rookie in his first race
• 6pts - Daniil Kvyat: Toro Rosso seemed doomed in pre-season testing but another young rookie performing very well 
• 5pts - Kamui Kobayashi: The only car from the two new teams to benefit from Lotus misfortunes and place get the car into Q2, and was able to defeat Perez once he got there
• 4pts - Felipe Massa: A brilliant save to keep the Williams out of the wall
• 3pts - Max Chilton: Supposedly the slowest driver on the grid, and in challenging conditions the Brit came close to leaving Q3 beating Bianchi in the process
• 2pts - Lewis Hamilton: Have couple of points for taking pole position in this new era
• 1pt - Williams: Williams deserve a point for their immense recovery, going from being just in front of Caterham to challenging for the poles and potentially victories in races to come

What will the race bring

Anyone's guess frankly, we have a very interesting grid with three world champions sitting outside the top ten which makes the prospect for tomorrow's race very enticing. With these cars out of position it means we have some rookies towards the sharp end of the grid with Magnussen in 4th and Kvyat in 8th with the rapid Williams behind them all. 

Even with Red Bull contributing to the front of the grid it would be difficult to look beyond Mercedes for the victory but the completely unknown factor of reliability will likely play a major part in defining the outcome of this event. On top of that there is the issue of fuel consumption, who will be the most efficient and who will have to compromise their race performance just to get over line. The feeling in the air is that the Ferrari powered teams will have the biggest fight on their hands in that respect but all these estimates and guesses mean nothing at this point. We'll only know where everyone stands at the end of lap 58 tomorrow, if there any cars left at that point. Wouldn't it be a shame if there was a concern over high winds and rain as well - this is going to be a brilliant introduction to 2014. Bring it on

Round 1: Australia 2014 - Preview

Greetings Internet,

We waited, and then we waited - and some of the world waited some more - but that wait has finally come to an end - almost. This is where we find out precisely how much insanity is going to be caused by the new regulations. Will the ERS be significant enough to render DRS obsolete and how many cars will actually complete the Australian GP. As noted in an earlier post, people have been combing the regulations to see what would happen if everyone breaks down - but I seriously doubt things will get that bad. Albert Park is an unique event, and has and will continue to throw up some mad races with high attrition, before and after large regulation changes and someone has always finished in the most chaotic of events. With money taking over so much of the sport at the moment with pay drivers and tracks built for the corporate guests rather than the racing, it nice to see that Australia still hosts the first race. Abu-Dhabi has bought itself the finale slot with the farcical double points rule (there will be no double bonus points) but Bahrain has been kept off the top spot after the complete mess it was in 2010 with the alternate layout. There is a spectacular atmosphere about the race being in Melbourne - even if I am thousands of miles away in Blog HQ - and it encapsulates the anticipation and excitement beautifully.

As well as the somewhat mutated cars we have now - which I am getting more and more used to there are some sporting regulations that have been slipped in under the radar in the past couple of days with reference to qualifying. It appears that the powers that be have taken a leaf out of Bernie's rulebook - where if you've done something silly, do or say something even sillier to distract people from the first infraction. So the initial problem was that drivers had to start the race on the tyres they set the fastest lap with in the final part of qualifying. The whole world agrees that this rule backfired as it meant it was advantageous not to take part in Q3 at times - so instead of abolishing the rule, the idea now is that the top 10 start the race on the same set of tyres they used in Q2... Sometimes I wonder if the monkey at the controls of the rule making committee has got more than a few screws loose. Still it is not as mental as the double points fiasco...

Albert Park

Albert Park 2014

Nestled in central Melbourne the venue for our opening race is picturesque, accessible and bounded by an armada of camouflaged walls - because if they weren't painted green less people would crash into them. Judging by how Australian motorsport has played out thus far during the V8 Supercar event at Adelaide, crashing is definitely on the agenda. Despite being a temporary track situated on the public roads encircling a boating lake the layout is wider than some permanent circuits and just as fast, because it doesn't rely on conventional road map topologies.  But just outside the painted lines denoting the track limits (...yes here we go again) are those concrete barriers - the only run-off being at the braking areas of the most substantial braking zones and on the outside of the fast chicane.

It has been the scene of many opening round demoltion derbies, in 2001 and 2002 we had cars sailing through the air, the latter causing the significant pile-up pictured below. Then again in 2008 more turn one accidents with Fisichella almost being upended, in a race which featured four safety cars and a rather airborne Toyota containing Timo Glock. So if apply the potential for carnage with a grid of cars which threaten to break down and disintegrate at any time we are in for a lot of fun. Something you wouldn't get if this was all shipped out to Bahrain instead (even if Bahrain 2013 was brilliant), the track may not be a picture of complexity and over-engineering like many of the newer venues but it does a wonderful job, far better than the likes of Shanghai or especially Abu-Dhabi. Long live the Australian GP opening at Albert Park (although I would accept a return to Adelaide - because the destruction would be ramped up there).


The Form Guide

Retirements Left, Right and Centre?

The feeling around the paddock and the internet is that this race is Mercedes' to lose, the testing pace and reliability have been better than anyone else and if it holds up they should be on for a Brawn GP-esque victory. The people at Red Bull have laughably suggested that Mercedes could win the race with a two lap margin of victory... which is rather excessive and almost grumpy from the team that have lost the most ground. Yet Mercedes themselves have not said that this is a done deal - because testing and racing conditions are completely different things, the car might be fragile in wheel-to-wheel combat. Lewis has already had one wing failure so the win is still up for grabs.

Realistically however, you'd have to think the win will be handed to a Mercedes powered car given their apparent advantage - most favourably Williams and then McLaren could be the alternate victors to the factory team. Force India are also running the Mercedes engine but don't seem to have the same advantage as the others languishing behind McLaren as the last of the Mercedes runners. Ferrari could well be in the mix, just a comfortable distance away from the front, even the power of Raikkonen and Alonso can't overcome the deficit it seems the team have in relation to the main Mercedes runners. They could have a go at McLaren and should finish ahead of Force India - provided they finish of course.

The Renault powered teams are in for a very difficult weekend, Red Bull and Lotus have had particularly limited running with Toro Rosso not doing too much better. That leaves Caterham as the team looking most likely to get two cars across the line - albeit a long time after anyone else remaining has finished which could net them their first points ever. In a way the same goes for Marussia in the other backmarking team, but their reliability record is a long way short of what Caterham have achieved without having any more pace to fall back on. It is races like this that the bottom teams look forward to - the likes of Minardi have scored many a point in Melbourne at the hands of Webber for example in 2002 recording a 5th place. That was only two points back then so there is plenty to aim for this time around.

I feel this is going to be a race of attrition - not as extreme as some fear - as it is the first time the new ERS boost system is applied in racing conditions alongside DRS and whatever other gimmick sneaks onto the playing field in the forthcoming hours.

The time is almost upon us...

Greetings Internet,

It has been a long time since the Brazilian GP on the other side of the winter break, and here many weeks and hundreds of miles of testing (or less if you're in possession of a Renault power unit) later it is only a matter of days before the first race of 2014. At the time the new regulations were announced at the back end of last season it was anticipated that Melbourne might see a new competitive order - those who adapted best stealing Red Bull's thunder. Back then no-one knew how true that statement was, testing would be the first indication of the significance of what is about to unfold next weekend. In acceptance of the challenge that is upon the metaphorical table there were certain parts of the internet that spent some time going through the regulations to find out what happens if no-one actually finishes the race, such has been the state of reliability over the winter. Reliability has struck the Renault powered cars the hardest Lotus didn't even turn up in Jerez and Red Bull need not have bothered given the lack of running they did - less than half race distance in four days track time. In Bahrain things improved, but Lotus, Red Bull and Toro Rosso still struggled to keep the car running long enough to work on their lap times and overall pace.

In another indication that the engine manufacturers are having a very dominant influence on performance is that Ferrari engined cars (barring Hamilton's wing failure) have been the only cars that have been involved in accidents in testing. In Jerez it was Sutil in the Sauber who delivered some damage to the nosecone of his car and then in Bahrain is Raikkonen who did a lot more damage to his Ferrari. Potentially this shows that the torque curve on those power units are more difficult to manage than the other approaches - and Marussia have had a very difficult testing period with reliability and speed. Out of it all it is looking really rosy for anyone who managed to secure a Mercedes engine, the factory team and Williams coming out on top thus far... but it is very early days yet. So the blog examines each team and their road to the start of the first race.

Marussia

Starting at the perceived back of the grid, things are not showing any signs of improving, a series of technical dramas and a chronic lack of pace are not a brace of positive signs for the team. Having not changed their driver paring from 2013 there is an element of consistency within the garage and Bianchi remains highly rated and poised to push the squad further up the grid. But the thing is that the team don't have enough money to claw back enough grid positions on core speed, typified by the presence of a certain Max Chilton propping up the balance sheets and the back of the grid. However all is not lost for Marussia, this season is going to be blighted by unpredictable unreliability and potentially a little bit of mayhem. Just the right circumstances for an under-funded tail end team to profit from the misfortunes of others, and hilariously this plays directly into the hands of captain moneybags Chilton. Max did display an uncanny ability to finish races despite casing a few accidents along the way - including the infamous fort building exercise in Monaco - in uncertain times that is how a small team can steal a point or two in the early rounds.

Caterham

Sitting in a similarly slow and unwieldy boat at the bottom of the grid is Caterham, and you'd think being saddled with the short lived Renault engine package things would seem rather hopeless - no speed and longevity? But for some reason the little green cars have achieved some of the best reliability records of the entire grid during pre-season testing, part of that might be the excessively conservative cooling package wrapped in the biggest sidepods on the grid. On that basis we might find ourselves in a world where only Caterham and Max Chilton cross the line in Australia. Like Marussia, their immediate competition they've gone for a mixed driver partnership, pairing rookie Marcus Eriksson with international favourite Kamui Kobayashi. A signing which has automatically gained the team 10 bonus points before the opening race has started - if Bernie is allowed to roll out an insane scoring system, things will need to be stepped up here to have the edge in the madness stakes. Caterham thus far have been woefully slow, the point where Kamui pointed out that the car was setting slower times than GP2 cars in Bahrain. Some work to do there.

Williams

After testing someone needs to go round the garage and dish out some high fives, because the winter period has been very promising. Being this far down the list summarises how poor the 2013 season was for the team - supposed team leader at the time, Maldonado managed to score a single point and even that was a result of a mechanical failure for Rosberg in Hungary. Bottas on the other hand managed some points on pace in the latter races - but the step they have made in testing is miraculous - people are talking about wins and podiums in the plural sense rather than which race will they sneak into the top ten. A part of this change could be the transition from Renault to Mercedes power and some significant personnel changes behind the scenes. Combined with a new title sponsor in lieu of the PDVSA money from Venezuela and arguably the best livery on the grid things look very promising. Williams have passed the burden of Maldonado onto Lotus and aqcuired the talents of the 2012 bonus points champion - Felipe Massa. Seems like a good deal to me. Felipe has also brought his best buddy Rob Smedley along too and topped the time sheets in the final test - 2014 is a big season for Williams and the world is now expecting big things.

Toro Rosso

When Williams have benefited greatly from an engine manufacturer change, Toro Rosso have encountered the exact opposite. In 2013 the team were Ferrari powered and had some of the highest top speeds at the low downforce tracks of Monza and Spa, but now they are beset with Renault power. Perhaps this is to build some form of commonality with the main team Red Bull, and the more cynical amongst you will suggest that Red Bull are merely using Toro Rosso as an experiment for the new regulations... But the way testing has gone would disprove that as both teams have been struggling. However all these discussions about performance have detracted comments away from Toro Rosso's nose - which is the most likely protuberance to be censored for airing on daytime television. From the running thus far it would appear that Toro Rosso have lost a lot of ground to their mid-field rivals especially Williams and may come under threat from the two slower teams at the back of the grid. But when Renault sort out what is going on with the power units then things might improve, this means that Toro Rosso will find the early races difficult and may not finish most of them, waiting for the latter races to make up the difference.

Sauber 

After a strong end to 2013 it seems that Sauber too are on the back foot and it seems that financial difficulties are at the head of that particular dilemma. There were many talks with investors at the end of the season - promoting rumours of Sergey Sirotkin being promoted into a race seat having done no real test mileage. In the end Sauber had settled for what seems like the most uninspired driver pairing of Sutil and Gutierrez. Which in reality might not be a bad idea, Sutil is dependable (as long as he stays out of Chinese bars) and Gutierrez demonstrated some flashes of brilliance (along with some of sheer stupidity) and in these uncertain times stability could be a valuable commodity. The car itself also seems mediocre, with all the attention on the top runners the world seems to have ignored those in the middle - except more dedicated corners of the internet. Sauber haven't been spared the reliability issues that others have suffered, losing over a day of testing at one point - but it has been able to complete race distances without breaking down so could be on for some points, just not inside the top five I'd guess.

Force India

Just by happening to have Mercedes engines Force India are in with a strong shout of consistent points while the others try and play catch up. This is boosted by the strongest driver pairing of the mid-field teams - liberating Hulkenberg from a struggling Sauber and adopting Perez who was booted out of McLaren because they liked Kevin more. There was a lot of online commotion when Nico didn't get a drive at Lotus, but oh how the tables have turned over the winter, Force India look like a much safer bet than the strange concoction that the Endstone team have created. In Jerez the team looked quite strong, but of course times at that stage don't mean a whole lot and picking a running order from that is lunacy - but in Bahrain the consistency continued. On base speed I don't quite think the car is fast enough to challenge for outright victories of podiums on a regular basis, but could easily put themselves in the position to capitalise when others retire. Force India are points contenders ahead of Sauber and Toro Rosso but potentially behind Williams - yet I reckon several big teams might find themselves further back.

Lotus

Well, it hasn't really gone to plan for Lotus - after being unable to compete in the first test in Spain, the team arrived in Bahrain and were plagued with technical problems. I severely doubt we have seen the actual speed of this interesting design so far, having to dial the power down just to get the car running for any period of time. Reigning bonus points champion Grosjean is in for a struggle to be the first driver to retain the generally ignored title. To make matters worse there had been an exodus of personnel from Endstone over the winter including some very important team members - Eric Boullier now belongs to McLaren and designer Pat Symmonds is now a Ferrari employee. On the whole things do not seem promising, but to counter balance that they do have an innovative car design which may pay dividends in the end and two fast - if not erratic - drivers. So when all the technical dramas are put right, and if the cars can reach the end of a race with all four wheels attached points can be scored - but it is going to be an uphill struggle to make it that far in 2014.


McLaren

Like Lotus McLaren have gone through some significant personnel changes in the run up to this season, the most notable being that Ron Dennis is back - the McLaren overlord has deposed Martin Whitmarsh and no-one quite knows where Martin is going next. Suspicions are that he was replaced because McLaren were playing too nice and needed to be more aggressive in their approach to team management. Other conspiracy theories claim that this is some big power-play to entice Lewis back into the team - but in reality Hamilton has no real reason to return given how well things are at Mercedes. Armed with the ever inaugural bonus points champion Jenson Button and this new chap Kevin Magnussen, McLaren seem to have a strong driver line-up. Kevin was able to top the time sheets in the final testing day in Jerez suggesting that the car is also a lot better than it was this time last season. But as you all know those times don't mean too much - it wasn't that long ago that Sauber lit up the pre-season tests but I don't recall them dominating the championship. So there is a cautious optimism at McLaren, like there is at Williams which makes for some interesting competition at the weekend.

Ferrari

Expectations could hardly be higher for Ferrari right now - with two highly rated world champions in the driving seats and some restructuring behind the scenes including looting Lotus' employment list. Maranello expects nothing less than victories and more titles to come from this season - and on the evidence thus far that goal seems fractionally out of reach. Like the others, Ferrari have had their own share of the reliability difficulties - and Raikkonen put the car in the wall in the first Bahrain test. But on top of that it has surfaced that the Ferrari engine is not the most fuel efficient motor on the grid - which in a season which aims to reward efficiency and fuel conservation is a bad sign. Reports are that both the factory team and Sauber have needed to fuel save in order to complete race distances on the single tank of fuel permitted. As Melbourne has a relatively high fuel consumption rate - the opening round is going to be more of a challenge than they hoped for. To add insult to injury the baseline speed of the car is vulnerable to several Mercedes powered teams - McLaren, Williams and the factory Mercedes team all appear to have moments of greater performance as well as better reliability and fuel numbers. Ferrari will always be competitive but taking the title might be a little optimistic at this stage.


Mercedes

Are we looking at the inception of a team capable of taking over the championship from Red Bull, well many people would think so - even without the assistance of Ross Brawn at the helm Mercedes are making significant strides towards the title. Retaining the same pair of drivers that brought the team's most successful season since their return as a factory outfit there a lot of positives coming out of Brakley at the moment. Only Williams have been able to keep up on raw pace with McLaren and Ferrari just out of range a little further down. On top of that - barring a significant front wing failure on the first day in Jerez - reliability has also been rather good. Does this mean we should all rush out and place bets on a Mercedes driver claiming the title - well maybe if you're into that sort of thing - but remember these are very early days in a controlled testing environment. Trundling around Bahrain, working an individual program is nothing like a highly charged qualifying session and even less like the stresses of putting a car through a full race weekend. Weaknesses that were not visible in tesitng could flare up - this championship is certainly not done and dusted before we begin, it would be silly to think otherwise. Even though the team does have a pedigree of dominating testing and then wiping the floor with the competition when it was in the Brawn GP guise...

Red Bull

Oh how the mighty have fallen... or have they. We all know testing has not gone well for Red Bull only doing 21 more laps than Lotus in Jerez who didn't even turn up was a diabolical start to the season. Leaving the team with a lot of ground to catch up in Bahrain, and even there they were more than comfortably behind the top running teams on pace. It is an odd turn of events when Caterham are now the most productive Renault engined team on reliability if not pace. While Toro Rosso set the fastest lap time for a Renault powered car, so Red Bull can't really be considered to be on top of anything at this point in time - their times place them in the mid-field just ahead of Sauber. Vettel himself has suggested that it will take a race of attrition for Red Bull to score points in Australia. So where does this place Daniel Ricciardo then, intially happy to move to big team only to find Vergne in the old car setting a stronger pace on a similar level of poor reliability. Oh dear oh dear. But - this is Red Bull with huge resources and expertise on tap to make up the difference, it wouldn't surprise me if by the end of the season if Vettel is running away to victories over half a second away from the field. I think in a parallel situation in Australia Jamie Whincup for Red Bull Racing Australia (who are almost equally as dominant usually) summed up the problem well when he pointed out that in his category each title defence year is harder than the last... and this one is the hardest ever. Maybe if the German bloke has to fight wheel-to-wheel in the mid-pack people won't be quite so tempted to boo his efforts behind the wheel.


Overall, looking at how testing has gone it would appear that you need a Mercedes engine to be successful, at least until the others catch up. The Ferrari power unit seems almost comparable on pace but the fuel consumption problem will compromise their overall race time as they are forced to conserve fuel towards the final laps of a race. As for Renault, they have the most work to do, under pressure from Christian Horner and the Red Bull team to do that work as quickly as possible. But if it is just Renault's fault, why are Caterham completing as many laps as they are on a consistent basis - is the slow pace of the Caterham team a reflection of the performance hit you need to take just to keep the Renault power plant alive for any reasonable amount of time. Normally testing provides a few answers as to what to expect - roughly - when the cars touch down in Melbourne, this season is very different. We have no idea what is going to happen, Marussia look like they could steal points if reliability is as poor as it is feared and the Australian GP turns into a Michael Bay movie with over the top mayhem. Either way 2014 threatens to be infinitely more exciting than 2013 (especially post tyre change) and makes the anticipation for the first session at the end of the week even more powerful. Bring it on.