Friday 13 May 2016

Round 5: Spain 2016: Preview

Greetings Internet, 


After taking a race weekend off to mingle with the world of nerdy celebrities and their costumed fans and onlookers, blog HQ has returned for the Spanish GP - much to the collective disappointment of the internet I've no doubt. It does mean that no points were handed out during the Russian GP as I was away for its entirety - catching up with proceedings on the Tuesday after the race. 

So moving swiftly on, the Spanish GP has been traditionally the start of the European season and despite Russia taking that honour this year - it is still considered to be the first European race. Even previously Russia was bundled after the Japanese GP as one of the final set of flyaway races outside Europe... maybe there is a conspiracy theory there. It might be best to chat with Mercedes on that one, as they have stepped forward in debunking other conspiracy theories pointed at them in the past week. The annual trip to Barcelona for a race weekend isn't traditionally one of those races that fills anyone barring the most enthusiastic of fans with a sense of grand anticipation. The hundreds of testing laps all teams have completed of the Catalunya circuit means that performance will be dictated more by the car than driver ability more so than any other track. Which means that the result in qualifying will likely by quite similar to the finishing order on Sunday, with strategies creating most, if not all of the position changes. So this gives the Spanish GP on this circuit a reputation of being a little... underwhelming, hampered by the lack of overtaking opportunities. It is a shame because barring the miserable final chicane the track is several shades better than the generic modern venues that are taking over the calendar. But before we get into all that, time for the news... and boy has there been some since Russia.

The Spanish GP - 2000 - Back when we had four yellow cars... Including the legend that was Gaston Mazzacane...
The News
While the Russian GP did see another generic Mercedes 1-2 in what was the least entertaining race of the championship so far there was plenty going on beneath that result. Events that have played on into the weeks that followed before this weekend's race. The biggest story is the one that has come as a significant shock to the wider motorsport community, and involves Mad Max Verstappen being promoted to Red Bull with immediate effect. To make way for the Dutchman, Daniil Kvyat was bumped down to Toro Rosso where he can make friends with Carlos Sainz Jnr. After a podium finish in China and a strong - if not erratic set of performances in 2015 it is being widely regarded as a very harsh decision... and one which I don't really agree with. But the fact of the matter is that the powers that be at Red Bull have been wanting to promote Max for a while, mostly to prevent other teams from pinching him, and because they think is going to be the next 'Vettel'. So with that inner motive in mind, all they needed was an excuse, a catalyst of sorts to make the swap. 

The race in Sochi provided that Catalyst after Daniil made a bit of a mess of the opening corner (well turn two) and rammed Sebastian Vettel... and then hit him again midway through turn three causing the Ferrari driver to crash out, and swear a lot... and then some more after that. In the melee Ricciardo and Sainz all suffered damage - most of the Red Bull squad lost out in the incident and thus lost a lot of potential points. A week later it was announced that the swap would take place. The thing is that the crash(es) itself shouldn't warrant a demotion - for example when driving for Toro Rosso, Vettel rammed Webber in the main Red Bull team under the safety car in Fuji, costing both drivers many points. Was Vettel fired/demoted... nope, and then again when Vettel collided with Webber in Turkey 2011 - when the two cars were  first and second - no one was fired. Many other drivers have been retained after embarrassing collisions... just remember how many years Maldonado was employed (although there was money behind that). So on that basis I suspect there are much bigger forces at work here involving a lot of pressure to move Verstappen into the main team as quickly as possible. Kvyat may well be the unfortunate victim a forceful power play between Helmut Marko and the rest of the Red Bull administration. In the end Red Bull does have a history of booting out good drivers in the hope they will eventually discover the best driver. Alguersuari, Bourdais, Vergne and Buemi are among many in that list so this brutal approach to driver selection is very much in their competitive manifesto. 

I admit that Daniil has been very mature and restrained throughout this whole debacle, and Red Bull themselves have fed him little in the way of an explanation about the demotion. One telling insight from his comments to the press came in the following quote "I got to know many interesting details, I must say, but I think I’ll keep it for myself for now" I do wonder what those interesting details were, but do indicate that this about far more than colliding with Red Bull's most successful driver. 


In other news Mercedes have hit back against the inevitable armada of conspiracy theorists online and in the media. Again this came down to the events of the Russian GP, where in qualifying Lewis suffered the same problem with the hybrid system he did in China - forcing him to start 10th. Kvyat's demolition derby approach to turn two haved that penalty by removing several drivers in the way. There have been calls that Mercedes are now sabotaging Lewis' car in order for their German driver to ease his way to the championship for the German team in a German car... These theories first arose when Lewis had issues in qualifying for the German and Hungarian races in 2014, but faded in 2015 when Nico faced a spate of technical problems in Italy and Russia. From what I have seen, the conspiracy theorists have been quieter this season... thus far, so it was a surprise to see Mercedes publish an open letter to shut the conspiracy theories down. Of course the team won't sabotage a car to favour another driver... they need both cars running 1-2 to make the constructors championship a formality. But the publication of the letter does indicate that there may have been more complaints and accusations flying in directly to Mercedes than were aired in the public domain. On the other hand the GPDA published an open letter to the world about FOM and it's general leadership, so I guess Mercedes figured that open letters were all the rage these days and jumped on the bandwagon.


The Spanish GP
Moving on now the the race weekend at hand, and as previously mentioned the Spanish GP traditionally formed the start of the European season and is the first time in the championship that teams bring new updates and upgrades to the cars. Force India have boldly claimed that their car will look very different when their upgrades are applied... but in FP1 there was no such dramatic evolution of the design at all. So perhaps those parts are being saved for later, of or for the post race test next week. The nature of the track is one of the reasons it is allocated as the designated test venue for the pre-season development. The assortment of high, medium and low speed corners means that most elements of the cars performance can be evaluated - even the inclusion of the hideous final chicane provides an evaluation of low speed mechanical grip. The net result of all this is that everyone has a firm grasp of the circuit and thus the difference between drivers in terms of lap time will be more heavily influenced by the capabilities of the car, rather than it's pilot. 

In some corners like turn three and Campsa, the aerodynamic performance defines the speed drivers can sustain through the bend, and the long straights are governed by engine performance and drag limitations. This is due to the dominant influence of downforce on lap time round the circuit as the majority of corners are relatively long, especially in comparison to the previous race in Sochi. For most teams and drivers they will have roughly optimised setups obtained through the testing milage and a lengthy history of circuit evolution with temperature and other variables. 

So far in practice Ferrari have been setting the fastest times but only by virtue of running the soft tyre when Mercedes haven't tried that at this point in time, so when they do I expect the running order to normalise. Red Bull have a strong configuration here benefitting Ricciardo and Mad Max, but once again the mid-field does look really competitive again as it has done for so much of this season. Toro Rosso, Williams, Force India, Haas and McLaren are all duelling for the remaining points positions once the top teams have taken the lions share. Unlike Russia Williams are anchored into this midfield group as they can't rely on the Mercedes engine to put one over on Red Bull to become the closest challengers to the factory Mercedes team and Ferrari out front. 

Off the back of the mid-field we have Renault, Sauber and Manor in their own separate battle to avoid being in last place -  at the moment it seems as if Haas have escaped from this bottom group and moved into the core mid-field pack for this weekend. But with all the differing programs and tyre strategies being operated across FP1 and FP2 at the moment 

Bonus Points for The Russian GP
In the aim of completeness it would be a good idea to add some points for the race that took place when I was touring round the midlands in a bus - and then hanging out with famous people. So here are the points for the Russian GP from Sochi - both qualifying and the race points

Qualifying
Qualifying was viewed over a couple of days after downloading the session file from channel 4 online through the hotel wifi. So in honesty I can remember more or less nothing about what happened when using the tiny phone screen as my portal into reality... so here are some points.

  • 10pts - Sergio Perez - Got the car into the top ten while Hulkenberg didn't do so well, so he must have done something impressive I think
  • 8pts - Valtteri Bottas - Only managed the front row due to Vettel's penalty and Hamilton's technical difficulty... but he beat one Ferrari on pace that must count for something... right?
  • 6pts - Daniel Ricciardo - On a power dependant circuit, qualifying a Renault powered car anywhere near the front gets points
  • 5pts - Felipe Nasr - The new chassis is certainly having an impact and putting him comfortably ahead of Ericsson
  • 4pts - Jenson Button - Less than a tenth away from making it into Q2 for the first time in the new Honda era, it is only a matter of time now
  • 3pts - Mad Max Verstappen - Got the Toro Rosso into the top ten, but only barely defeated Sainz in Q2 in the process
  • 2pts - Daniil Kvyat - After a podium in Russia he closed up the qualifying deficit to Ricciardo... nothing could go wrong there...
  • 1pt - Rio Haryanto - Despite being seen by many as a low ability pay driver, Rio's qualifying time kept him ahead of Ericsson and within a tenth of Wehrlein.
The Race
Once again it was 4od that came to rescue this time, and on a tuesday morning I borrowed a lunch break to process the goings on in the winter olympic park. There was plenty of chaos in the first breaking zone and then not too much after that - Vettel got cross, Kvyat got demoted and several people benefited from the mayhem. The race was less impressive than the others this season, but they all can't be marvellous, but like qualifying I can't really remember too much so these points will be based on my fading recollection, guesswork and looking at the results on the internet to jog my memory.
  • 25pts - Kevin Magnussen - The yellow car has points!, which in itself is marvellous but the underpowered and underdeveloped Renault car finished 7th despite starting the race in 17th. Yes the crash helped that progress but staying that high up is impressive.
  • 18pts - Fernando Alonso - Another beneficiary of the crashes but drove through the middle of the melee to pick up places and score the best points result for McLaren this season.
  • 15pts - Romain Grosjean - More points for Haas, after their non-scoring race in China, but only Grosjean is delivering (mostly because Esteban's car keeps breaking or getting run into... or in the case of Russia, doing the hitting).
  • 12pts - Jenson Button - A double points scoring day for McLaren, you don't see to many of those these days 
  • 10pts- Marcus Ericsson - Despite being beaten in qualifying Marcus won the team-mate battle on Sunday... mostly by not having a fight with Palmer but even so, here are some points. 
  • 8pts - Kimi Raikkonen - Held up the flag for Ferrari as Vettel was introduced to the barrier 
  • 6pts - Nico Rosberg - Made a strong start and drove unchallenged to another win
  • 4pts - Lewis Hamilton - Another strong recovery race, although most of that was down to the start, half of those places were gained in turn three. 
  • 2pts - Daniil Kvyat - Two points for two collisions with vettel, because one has to laugh really
  • 1pt - Sebastian Vettel - Gets the final point for the longest, angriest tirade on the radio I've heard, the chap with the swear button also gets an honourable mention
  • -1pt - Lewis Hamilton - I saw that cheeky dive across the run-off area to avoid the accident, yes you obeyed the rejoining rules. But you were very eager to take that route and gain full advantage from doing so.
  • -1pt - Red Bull - Yes the decision was made after the race but I am adding the penalty point now, simply because this is when I am writing up the points. In the very same race Gutierrez made an identical error and hit Hulkenberg... Gutierrez has not been dropped or demoted to a reserve driver role now has he...






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