Friday, 1 April 2016

Round 2: Bahrain 2016 - Preview

Greetings Internet,

I know this was supposed to happen yesterday but, already even at this incredibly early stage in the season the ominous curse of laziness seems to found its way into blog HQ. So slightly later than billed I consider dealing with the fact that there is another race on the horizon... well slightly over the horizon considering that Bahrain is a considerable distance away from the this part of the world. Even so the second round of an already very turbulent and controversial championship has arrived and the hornets nest of angry drivers (not just grumpy teenager Mad Max) teams, and fans have descended into the middle of the desert for the Bahrain GP. There is another degree of irony involved in the ongoing turmoil throughout the paddock landing in Bahrain, a venue that was brought onto the calendar most likely for monetary reasons rather than sporting ones... Nevertheless the Sakhir circuit has provided some interesting racing in the past, and also some very dull and tiresome races with no scenery to look at instead. The transition to a night race does seem to have helped, whether the lower air and track temperatures encourage better racing on this particular surface or whether the drivers just seem to go a little bit mad when the flood lights come one. Either way here's to another hopefully enthralling installment in F1 2016... well maybe not the bit that happens on Saturday. 



The News
In the two weeks since the Australian GP, a lot of things have happened - in fact from various reports across the internet the whole world of F1 seems to be teetering on the very verge of a significant implosion. The catalyst for this whole argument was the debacle surrounding that failed qualifying session under the new, experimental 'elimination' format. Fans, drivers and team principles universally decided that the concept didn't work - in theory it would have been exciting but there were certain limitations in refuelling times, tyre changes and overall lap time that prevented it from doing to. Without considerably adjustments to the other rules and procedures it couldn't operate successfully. This was why an emergency meeting - conveniently timed with the TV broadcasts - was held to propose returning to the older tried and tested qualifying format. At the time it was unilaterally agreed that the older version would be reinstated from Bahrain onwards, and for a while things seemed settled...

But then things got a little angry it seems - the GPDA fired the first shot at FOM by publishing an open letter declaring the decision making process in F1 obsolete and ill-structured. It was a very bold statement pointing out that the decisions being made are leading the sport down the wrong path, something that us outsiders have noticed for a while, decisions that make it very difficult for smaller teams, pressing circuit owners for more higher race fees, and favoring venues in the middle of nowhere built on oil money. But the fact that those on the inside are now declaring enough is enough, is an interesting step in that debate. One of the things that the letter was aiming to point out was that the increased monetisation of coverage by handing a large amount of exclusivity to Sky TV was hampering sponsorship as the advertising space was worth less money. Less people can see the races so, less people see the adverts. 

In a direct example of the problem the drivers/teams/us poor fools are facing, in the space of 24hrs of this complaint letter being published - there was announcement that all UK TV coverage will soon be placed on paid TV. So this GPDA points out there is a deep and inherent problem, and instead of attempting to make things better the powers that be make another decision to further worsen the situation. At the time I was completely livid at this blatant disregard of the fanbase, the team's intentions and sponsorship opportunities. Here at Blog HQ have lucked into a fortunate situation by clinging onto Sky's legacy HD deal which included the F1 coverage but no other sports. But for everyone else outside of this - it becomes hideously expensive for 21 races, pricing so many viewers out of the equation. So sponsorship matters even less and smaller teams are further starved of the funding they need to go racing. Less than 10 years ago, cars were covered in sponsor logos because they knew their brands would be plastered over national TV every other weekend. Now this is just not the case... 

To rub salt into the wounds of the teams and drivers, the powers that be then announced only a few days later that the meeting which was held in Australia meant absolutely nothing. After deciding en masse to revert to the simpler and more effective qualifying format - it turns out Bahrain will use the elimination format... because reasons. I imagine it will be even worse this time around in some respects because the lap is longer, so the amount of time needed to pit for new tyres and try again increases... It appears that this elimination method is the only solution that Bernie and co will accept over his utterly ridiculous reverse grid method...

In other news
We will all likely remember the Australian GP of 2016 for the images of Fernando Alonso sailing through the air in his McLaren and smashing the thing to oblivion in his collision with Gutierrez. While we saw the indestructible Spaniard emerge from the wreckage almost instantly with only the smallest of limps, it has now later emerged that there was a little more damage lurking
beneath the surface. After returning home to Spain Fernando noticed that the natural discomfort from the shunt hadn't faded, and was instead getting worse - a visit to the doctor later discovered he had fractured ribs and a partially deflated lung. More scans in Bahrain this week have revealed that the injuries haven't completely healed and therefore would be vulnerable to severe damage in the event of another accident. So wisely it has been decided that Alonso will not race in Sakhir on safety grounds, and more CT scans will be performed ahead of the Chinese GP to make sure all is well.

This leaves McLaren one driver short, but fear not - they have a rather quick substitute up their sleeves to call upon in the form of Stoffel Vandoorne. The Belgian dominated the 2015 GP2 series and will compete in the Japanese Super Formula championship this year. If McLaren didn't have two world champions on the books this season the rookie would be first in line for a more permanent position, and I imagine the very moment that either Fernando or Jenson consider retirement - the open seat will be gift wrapped for Vandoorne.

Anyway back to Bahrain
On the day of arrival at the desert racetrack everyone was greeted with quite the anomaly... rain. Hailstorms and downpours made a surprising appearance on Thursday, but the conventional dry weather conditions will be making a more traditional return through the rest of the race weekend. Even though I doubt a monsoon or three would breathe any life into the monstrosity of qualifying we are likely to experience tomorrow.

Because this document is quite late the first practice session has been completed and Mercedes headed the field by a more than healthy margin. Almost two seconds clear of Ferrari - but in FP1 fuel loads, tyre choices and setup decisions make a large difference to the actual lap times, so not too much can be read into it at this stage. Even if Mercedes are repeating that dominant performance in the second practice at the moment - with Ferrari once again being the cars looking most likely to give chase. If the performance gap really is this large, then Sunday might not be as interesting at the sharp end of the field - unless we have a repeat of the epic Rosberg vs Hamilton tussle we had at the 2014 Bahrain GP. Alas most of me thinks that might be a tad unlikely.

Elsewhere however the field does appear to be quite close, with a lot of similar lap times between Williams, Toro Rosso and Red Bull - all of which are not a county mile behind Ferrari in that fight for 3rd place. McLaren showed average pace in FP1 but seem to have stepped it up a little bit for the second practice session and moved a little closer to the sharper end of the grid. What is interesting is that Manor... well just Wehrlein is able to set times comparable to Sauber and Renault, on softer tyres that is. But is does show that there are no real struggling back marker teams this season, as Manor can run to some extent with the tail end of the field. Haas seem to be solidly in the mid-field as FP2 enters its final phase so there could be some very interesting battles for points on Sunday even if the top step of the podium may be out of reach for anyone other than a Mercedes driver.

At the bottom end of the points battle will probably be Renault, Sauber and Manor - despite being similarly paced as one another and maybe Haas too, they could do with about half a second more to bring them in sight of a McLaren or Force India. It will come down to who gets caught out the most by the cursed elimination format or who has the most consistent race pace on Sunday.

There is of course one slight problem that may hinder Mercedes over the weekend, and that is there tyre selection. Ferrari have selected more of the medium compound tyre than Mercedes and if tyre wear happens to be higher following the rain shower washing any remaining residual rubber off the track then they might have to make more stops in the race. The sand blasted abrasive track surface may prove problematic, and of course these tyre choices were made last year, before Mercedes spent days testing the medium compound in Barcelona. But I suppose if Mercedes can crush the opposition on tyres they have done a lot less testing work on, then that is a truly ominous sign for the rest of 2016. 

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