Thursday, 12 November 2015

Round 18: Brazil 2015 - Preview

Greetings Internet, 


It has been a while since I last polluted the internet with my disjointed ramblings about folk driving cars and having arguments about it in the process. There were some issues around having to go to London for a little while and theatrical performances that rather got in the way of life and things. But much to the collective disappointment of the collective internet population I have returned, and I think I can vaguely hear the faintest sounds of people throwing their computers out of the nearest window in disgust. Frankly I don't blame them. Anyway it has been an interesting and contrasting pair of races during my absence from this corner of the internet - the US GP was magnificent, actual overtakes for the lead, and not just between cars which happen to be owned by an Arnold Schwarzenegger impersonator. We had Kvyat having a mad race, passing people, throwing the car off the track and then into the barrier before the end. There was a championship which was almost prolonged but ended up being gifted to Hamilton before the end of the race. Then there was the worldwide sensation that was 'capgate' where people up and down the county opened their imaginary psychology textbooks and started preaching their findings to the world online. Personally I just figured Rosberg threw the hat back because he was angry at Pirelli for not bringing the stetsons to Texas.



Then there was Mexico - a returning venue brutally murdered by Tilke's design team. But alas we knew changes had to be made in the interests in safety, as immense as the old Peraltada corner was - it was too risky to use it with modern speeds. The changes to the middle sector though... that was just mean, the old esses were lovely, at least the ones that Champ Car raced on... because the last actual Mexican GP was many years before I tuned into things. So a returning traditional circuit, mixing the high speed original layout with a colossal amphitheatre stadium section was going to make for a great race... surely. Well no, it was rather dull - so dull in fact that Vettel crashed his Ferrari just to go home earlier. The Finns clashed again in a retribution attack from Bottas spinning Raikkonen out of the race, it seems that Kimi has rather forgotten all of a sudden how racing actually works... and those were the only highlights. A dominant 1-2 for Mercedes with Rosberg in front, nobody else was even close summed up the contrast between the two North American races. Even Nigel Mansell on the podium was so bored he forgot he was even in Mexico... maybe next year will be better. The Russian GP certainly was on the second time of asking.



In the news everyone is keeping their focus on Red Bull and their ongoing engine dilemma. The FIA has laid down an ultimatum on engine pricing to encourage more teams/manufacturers to join in. They want the price of a season's supply of power units to cost £12,000,000... which is quite a bit. But Mercedes and Ferrari have out and out rejected that as far too low, stating that they would make a loss selling that cheap... If the low prices were rejected by the manufacturers then Jean Todt and the other overlords would source a cheaper alternative engine which meets a different specification. I assume this 'budget' engine will be less powerful than the factory efforts but who knows. So where does all of this put Red Bull and their plight. New rumours suggest they will go running back to Renault for a rebranded version of the engine. But as Renault potentially take over Lotus, Red Bull would become a customer team and have to pay more for the engines. So their future may be a little unstable for now as no official final confirmation has been released.



The Venue




After rambling on about various other things it is time to return attentions to the matter of this race weekend, the penultimate round of the championship... not that any of the championships actually matter anymore. A part of me hoped that once the overall titles were settled in Texas, Mexico would be a free-for-all, instead of an uneventful evening. All that means is that Sao Paulo will have to pick up that particular baton and deliver something to make up for the Mexican GP which fell far short of the full enchilada. 



The Interlagos circuit has provided some brilliant races in the past, but the vast majority of those had one vital ingredient - rain. Showers are forecast for around qualifying... the last time that happened the session took several hours to complete due to rain red flags, accidents and general waiting about. Best put Doctor Who on record, just in case. The race however looks as if it might be dry, boo and hiss come to mind there but that's life for you. As to the configuration itself - it does bear the hallmarks of a traditional and historic venue. Bumpy grass run-off areas, varied corner speeds and types - a world away from the sparkly car park used for the finale race. So many of the corners have character and stories to tell over the years, each one different to it's predecessor.



The first sector is defined by the Senna 's' a blind entry to a downhill chicane where picking a braking point can be quite challenging - especially to those of us who have never actually driven one of the cars and just played about in computer games. It presents a good opportunity for overtaking, for crashing - and as a young Nick Heidfeld once found out, for taking doors off medical cars. Turn three, the simple acceleration zone in the dry, collects rivers of water in the wet which caught so many drivers out in 2003 leading to a very expensive collection of broken cars being stored on the exit of the corner. The first sector is concluded by the run up to Descida do Lago - one of Interlagos' many flamboyantly named corners. The corner where Vettel almost threw away the 2012 championship by colliding with Bruno Senna in the damp conditions. 


After Descida do Lago the track heads into the technical middle section which several corners are crammed into a relatively small space. However the sector starts off with Ferradura a quick corner at the top of the ascent where the powers that been have decided to apply some tarmac to the run off area. I suppose Kvyat might be happy so see some of that after the gravel in Suzuka flipped his car. The exit of Ferradura immediately flows into the first of three hairpins - Laranja which in turn defines the entry to the challenging Pinheirinho corner. The final hairpin in the complex is the Bico de Pato, translating as the 'Ducks Beak' the amusingly named corner has been the scene of the odd optimistic overtaking effort. This complex finishes like it started, with a quick exit through the downhill Mergulho corner, where rivers have thrown many folk into the barrier. Most recently Grosjean in the last wet race at the circuit. 

The final sector is defined by Juncao corner, the exit of which establishes the speeds for the huge climb up the hill back to the start/finish line passing through two high speed flat out kinks to round out the lap. The barriers have been moved back in key places to improve safety as ongoing developments plan to relocate the grandstands on the outside to allow more run-off area. This in response to several significant accidents over the years, most recently Mark Webber ripped a LMP1 Porsche in half after colliding with the wall in a WEC race. 

The Form Guide

Conditions may have impact on qualifying and create a very interesting grid for Sunday - if the rain does arrive on Saturday then Red Bull might be in for an outside look at the front row. Combined with the middle sector should also suit their car... but the long uphill climb will show off Renault's obvious power deficit. Ferrari and Mercedes might be closer on one lap pace in the dry and anyone gambling on a wet setup might do well in qualifying. But cooler conditions are predicted for the race, and that might hurt Ferrari and make life easier for Mercedes. Of the pairing in the silver arrows, a disruptive weekend of mixed conditions has played more into Rosberg's hands, as evidenced by the spate of recent poles at weekends where practices have been rained off. 

Wet weather is also bad for Williams who have proven lack of performance when the rain sets in, pushing them further into the mid-field with ground to make up on the Sunday. Seeing Bottas and Massa carve through the field might add a little something to the race. The middle of the pack should get very crowded especially considering the track is so short, Force India, Toro Rosso and Lotus all mashed up together and melting pot of competitive rivalry... or just a long procession following each other round with two second gaps between each car, if Mexico was anything to go by. 

Where the struggling McLarens fit into this remains a bit of an unknown, the middle sector won't expose their lack of engine power and the short lap won't expose the weaknesses in their hybrid unit. But two high speed sectors including a long uphill climb might pose greater difficulties for both drivers, and make their battle with Sauber that bit more difficult. Of course Manor will be at the back of the grid, still waiting for that new, shiny Mercedes engine next season. But if the forecasts are defied and the rain makes it to Sunday's race, some madness might put them in the running for a point. But that would take a lot of madness, which I do approve of. 

Rain or no rain the Brazilian GP generally provides a reasonable amount of entertainment, and after Mexico we could do with some. 

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