Round 3 - China 2015 - Qualifying

Greetings Internet, 

Normal service has resumed - at least in the first part of the weekend, the top three teams occupy the top three rows of the grid and for the first time in 2015 it does appear that all 20 cars will be taking the start tomorrow morning. The closely fought battles of Malaysia were not really on the cards for today's qualifying session, but like the tropical realm of Sepang, pole position did come down to a matter of hundredths rather than tenths. 

Q1

After making a slight error of judgement in Malaysia, Mercedes sent their cars out on the harder of the two compounds so that they they have enough tyres for the race tomorrow. Although after the session Rosberg told Sky TV that the soft tyre would not be a useful race compound...somehow I think Ferrari might have a different opinion given their tyre preservation capabilities. But it was Manor and McLaren taking to the track first - Alonso parted his garage first but as Merhi's garage was further down the pit-lane the Manor car became the first car to take to the track. Naturally Roberto's time wasn't going to challenge any other team's car. Some pre-session chatter suggested that this was going to be first race of the season wherein McLaren would be able to escape the depths of Q1 - likely at the expense of a Force India or a particularly unlucky Sauber or

Lotus. The pace did seem like a marked improvement on Malaysia and certainly on Australia - both Jenson and Fernando were well inside the top 15 during the first set of laps in the session, but their times were a little slower than the predicted cut-off time as more cars were to move onto the soft tyres. The threat of soft tyres was placing pressure on several teams inside the current top ten - including Ferrari. Vettel was fractionally safer than Raikkonen, but the two cars were only a few tenths apart on lap time. 

Of course the two second lap delta on tyre performance was of little concern to Mercedes, who only needed one run on the slower option to secure a place in Q2. Hamilton retained the few tenths advantage he had throughout the practice sessions in Q1 over Nico - but an interrogation on the pit-wall revealed that Mercedes good fortune is all down to a certain 'lucky panda' positioned in front of the data monitors. The extent of the soft-tyre advantage could be ultimately exemplified by Nico Hulkenberg - before the grid switched to the faster compound he and his Force India was third fastest. As soon as the rest of the grid bolted on the faster tyres - Nico rapidly fell down the order. With only a few minutes to go, Hulkenberg was looking rather closely at the relegation zone. McLaren were also sliding closer to dropping out Q1, as Sauber moved up the grid. On the final lap, Lotus and Sainz were the only people keeping Hulkenberg and the two McLarens in contention. Grosjean went fourth, Maldonado 11th and Sainz 12th. A final effort by Hulkenberg allowed him to jump ahead of both McLarens - but not out of relegation. The only thing McLaren could do was settle the order between themselves - to which Jenson Button eked out a 0.004s advantage in the glorious battle for 17th and 18th place.

Q2

The second part of qualifying got underway with a little less enthusiasm than Q1 - nobody was storming out of the pit-lane to join the circuit. Mercedes ventured out eventually under the radio message stating that both cars were on the set of tyres they would be starting the race on. Ultimately pointing out that the team would only be doing one lap, and that it would be enough to ease themselves through into Q3. Given what happened in Malaysia you might expect the team to have been a little on the conservative side - but both drivers completed their first laps ending with a considerable advantage, verifying their apparent confidence. At this point they were well over a second quicker than anything else on track - with Williams being the closest competition in third and fourth place. But of course, we hand't seen the first of the Ferrari's at this stage, and they had a seemingly unassailable target to reach as set by the Mercedes team. Vettel was the fastest of the Ferraris to take to the track, and he was rather competitive only a few tenths slower than Rosberg. 

But Q2 isn't really about who is fastest, at the sharpest end of proceedings, it is all about who is going to be relegated - considering everyone outside the top three teams who hasn't been relegated already is running on the same pace - it is rather close. It is in these situations that a little extra engine power could go a long way to guaranteeing a place inside the top ten. That seemed to be precisely what was happening in the Sauber team, blessed with a new Ferrari engine. With a few minutes remaining on the clock it seemed as if both the blue and yellow machines - which could still do with more yellow - looked as if they were destined for relegation. Ericsson looked to be wrestling the car round the track, but amidst the frenzied steering and sideways action - the Swede managed to evade the drop zone. From the perspective of my sofa, which is not the most knowledgeable place in the known universe it does seem as if the chassis is not up to speed with the cars Sauber are competing with, but the engine is more than making up for it. In a way, it is the same sort of revival that Williams noted in 2014 - a quality power unit making the difference. 

But where there are gains, there will be others losing out - once more it was the Red Bull powered cars. Toro Rosso were anchored in the relegation zone, unable to make any real challenge, and Red Bull were not doing too much better. If it wasn't for Ricciardo none of the Red Bull branded cars would be in the top ten. Daniil Kvyat was finding that his slightly erratic driving style didn't suit the Red Bull car he had transitioned into - locking both wheels under braking for the turn 14 hairpin. But in this instance, I don't think we can blame the terrifying death stare because Sainz in the Junior team was also encountering braking difficulties. As a result 75% of the Renault fleet was eliminated, along with Maldonado and the remaining Force India.

Q3

After a powerful display in Q2 it certainly seemed as if the battle for pole would be another internal competition within the Mercedes team - just out of reach from the even the most optimistic hopes within the Ferrari garage. Times in the low to mid 1:36's would be easily enough to claim the front row as their own - so when Hamilton left the garage and set a time of 1:35.7s the session may as well have been declared over there and then. Rosberg remained the customary 3 tenths further back in a comfortable second place - both cars in a league of their own. Like in Q2, it was Williams who were the next cars in line behind the Mercedes pair - Ferrari on the other hand were two seconds behind the top times. This was down to the fact that the Ferraris went out on used tyres for some inexplicable reason - the tyres were bound to be slower, but they used

them anyway. This odd move by Ferrari created an odd predicament for Mercedes, they had no idea what Ferrari were truly planning in preparation for the final run. However it shouldn't really matter, as the battle for pole meant both cars had to run again anyway - unless Toto consulted the lucky panda and decided to call it a day in order to save tyres. Because in the end, given how the weekend had transpired it seemed unlikely that the positions would change.

For round two, all cars were on new soft tyres, with Ferrari taking to the track slightly earlier than everyone else - a tactic that has seen them come undone in the past as their flying laps coincide with everyone else's outlaps. In Raikkonen's case it didn't quite seem to be working, not due to traffic, but due to it seeming as if Kimi's car was possessed - just like Ericsson's car in Q2. It took multiple attempts to turn into the corner, and trying to break loose on the exit. Raikkonen hung onto the car and dragged it round to beat the Williams cars by just over half a second. Vettel went faster, 6 tenths faster, but still almost a second slower than Hamilton. So that left us with the final runs and the battle for pole position - Lewis' sector times were less than ideal giving Rosberg a faint hint of a chance to claw back the deficit. Hamilton failed to improve, and Nico was on a faster lap, but in the end he fell short of taking pole...only by 0.04s. So close, but still not good enough... Nico was a grumpy Nico both on the radio and in post session interviews. But perhaps that frustration can be used to make a race of things at the front tomorrow. 

The Bonus Points Championship Points Winners

The conditions were slightly warmer than we'd normally expect in China, but it clearly wasn't enough to encourage a multi-team battle for the front row. Instead we have the bonus points, and here are the winners from qualifying.

10pts - Daniel Ricciardo - Despite all the difficulties all Red Bull branded cars have Ricciardo qualified as the best non Mercedes/Williams/Ferrari car today
8pts - Romain Grosjean - Another respectable job for the Lotus driver
6pts - Felipe Nasr - For someone who has never seen the track before in a team which scored no points in 2014 - another top ten grid spot is rather good
5pts - Marcus Ericsson - Completes a double bonus points score for Sauber, as the swede who was almost permanently last in 2014 starts 10th.
4pts - Alonso/Button - Lots of people complained that the supposed improvements on the McLaren still got them relegated in Q1, but only 0.2s away from promotion is much better than the past two rounds
3pts - Nico Rosberg - After being considerably beaten all weekend, cutting the gap to 0.04s is a very valiant effort
2pts - Will Stevens - His first qualifying session for Manor and he hammered Mehri into submission in the battle for last place
1pt - Valtteri Bottas - Has to score the remaining point for the best powerslide of the session through the exit of turn four.

-1pt - Bernie - Stop saying mad things you crazed fool
-1pt - Dietrich Mateschitz - After signing a long term sponsor deal the Austrian strengthens claims that Red Bull may depart the sport if Renault can't sort things out.... stop whining and start working to fix everything.

Looking to Tomorrow

Despite being one of the most frustrating attempts at a circuit the Chinese GP often provides an interesting race - as it is the first race of the season that provides a typical race scenario that we shall experience throughout the rest of the season. It isn't the temporary circuit of Melbourne or the extreme tropical heat and humidity of Malaysia, delivering the first look at the normalised pecking order. How will that influence the events of tomorrow morning, well I don't see Ferrari taking the win away from Mercedes, but their strong tyre conservation and long-run pace means that I don't think the silver cars will trounce the competition. If they drop the ball, or make a poor strategy decision, Ferrari, and possibly Williams at a push could capitalise on those errors. I sort of expect Mercedes, Ferrari and Williams to separate into their own private battles while everyone else fights for the rest of the points. 

Lotus, Sauber, Red Bull, Toro Rosso, and potentially Force India will all be arguing over effectively four points paying positions - all of which may be a little too far out of reach for McLaren and certainly Manor.... Unless of course there is carnage and madness, and of course I do like some carnage and madness...