Friday 25 July 2014

Round 11: Hungary 2014 - Preview

Greetings Internet, 

Only one week after the turbulent and busy events in Germany, it is time to do the whole thing all over again. This time in Hungary instead - one of the few races all season which is known unilaterally as being the most boring and uneventful venue of the year. Fortunately things are no as bad as they once were in the height of the Schumacher and Ferrari domination... I mean it's not as if we have one all powerful team these days... There have been many a race on the Hungaroring in which nothing happening would be an improvement in the action. On the other hand there are exceptions to that rule - 2006 immediately springs to mind in which damp and drying conditions threw a spanner into the works. Conveniently the rumours of rain at some point this weekend - but if Germany and the second half of 2013 are anything to go by it will be a very dry Sunday afternoon. 

In the intervening days between the two races, announcements were made in respect of the upcoming calendar for 2015 (because many have written off 2014 already). The announcement centred on the increasing chance of a Mexican GP next season at the Autodromo Hermanos Rodriguez. This should be brilliant news - another historic track making a comeback... but not so much because the FIA and probably Bernie have sent Tilke over to make some 'adjustments'. The concept drawings of these 'adjustments' are a disappointment to say the least - it appears that Herman, under whose orders it's not clear has been commissioned to sharpen corners that didn't need sharpening. It was fine as is - minus upgrades - with brilliant corners and a nice overall circuit rhythm. I understand the issue with the final corner, the peraltada - a high speed entry with only an old concrete wall as run-off. A wall which can't be moved due to the major public road on the other side. The alternative solution is terrible but the only part of the 'redevelopment' program that makes sense... the rest of it has all the hallmarks or a Tilke-fied botch job to force an old traditional style track fit the new homogeneous design characteristics. 



The Venue

Back to Hungary now and this circuit is one of the most polarising venues on the calendar - because the racing is infamously dull, but the track itself is very good. It is the ultimate example of how a nice, flowing and enjoyable circuit can produce some terrible racing. Before the arena section Silverstone had a similar problem - a magnificent circuit with processional racing. Spa and Suzuka have also been guilty in the past of the same thing. This comes down to one factor - a track where one corner feeds the next in a flowing sequence traces a very narrow optimum racing line. Put a car on that racing line and finding a way past becomes very difficult and requires a large performance advantage to offset the damage done by deviating from that core line. There is also a small matter of aerodynamic wake preventing cars on this one line from being close enough to one another to capitalise on any errors.

Around the time that Hockenheim and the Nurburgring were adjusted to compensate for these effects the Hungaroring did the same. Turn one was converted from a smooth 180 downhill curve into a sharper hairpin bend designed for overtaking. Two years after the re-profiling Jacques Villenueve flipped Christian Klien over - so there is room for a hat-trick of rollovers this season in turn one. Turn remains largely intact, and was once a mirrored image of turn two, a second gradual downhill 180 bend. Turn three used to be full speed, but I suspect these days it will be more of a corner turning through the basin at the lowest point on the circuit. The exit of T3 determines how much speed can be carried up the hill to turn four. 

Turn four is brilliant - and the site of one of the passes of the season in 2013... until the FIA penalised Grosjean for executing it a few centimetres the wrong side of the white line. It has also been the site of some enormous accidents - Ralf Firman in 2003 was knocked unconscious after a wing failure, and then in 2009 it was the corner where Massa's car came to rest after his near-fatal encounter with a errant spring. Turn five is the third of five longer 180 corners that manage to feel just long enough without being tiresome or pointless. After all that excitement the narrow chicane flanked by mountainous curbs calms everything down a little and takes the pace out of the lap. It has also been know to take chunks out of unsuspecting front wings too.

The middle sector is the highlight of the lap, playing host to a sequence of slightly slower s-bends each one edged with grass and gravel - none of that low risk tarmac run-off here. Well until you reach the final part of the sequence which has 'track limits violations' written all over it and it is a bit of a lottery to decide whether the stewards play hard-ball as in Austria or ignore them completely as in Germany. Remember that concept of consistency, what ever happened to that - I wonder. After the joys of having each entry and exit point being precisely where it feels they should naturally be the modifications take over again. The entry to the final sector was sharpened to improve overtaking... has it worked...no, maybe that knowledge should be taken to Mexico and leave the corners well alone. Since 2003 we have a 90 degree right hander at the bottom of a hill instead of the smoother predecessor and not too much to gain from it.  The remainder of the lap is composed of two 180 corners set far enough apart and with a gradual enough corner radius so that you don't get too impatient or lose too much speed. 

The Form Guide

Well it may seem like a repetitive statement but another Mercedes 1-2 might be on the cards this time out. Williams might not have quite the same pace as they demonstrated to great effect with Bottas in Germany due to their weaker high downforce package. It also means that other Mercedes powered teams relying on the power of the engine to get them through might find themselves at the lower end of the points this time. Replacing them behind the factory team would be Red Bull and possibly Ferrari - because straight line speed doesn't have such an influence on lap time at the Hungaroring. However getting past people will be just as difficult.

On the other side of the points positions, this could be a decent weekend for Toro Rosso if Force India and McLaren struggle to pull away. There is also some potential for Lotus to wrestle their way back onto to the score sheet - if the car manages to last till the end in the continuing European heat wave. Sauber however might struggle again to get within a few places of an elusive first point of 2014 - Marussia might even give them a run for their money on a track, like Monaco could benefit the smaller teams. Of course in order for that to happen a little bit of lunacy needs to take place. 

The only hope for lunacy during a weekend which usually is awarded the uncontested accolade of being the dullest sequence of laps we'll see during the course of the season is rain. Lots and lots of rain - but in this day and age the FIA and the stewards have gotten very soft when it comes to rain - throwing the red flag and the safety car at the first sight of conditions being damper than an intermediate tyre can accommodate. It was odd to see Indycar at Houston - a glorified car park street circuit with limited run-off, concrete walls and painted surfaces - competing in worse conditions that the FIA would declare 'unsafe'. But of course that is a debate for the unlikely scenario that these 'storms' actually show their face for once... So we shall have to wait and see. 


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