Well it is around this time of the year where everyone is trying to secure a drive for the coming season, preferably in a car which is a little faster or more reliable than the one they are currently sitting in... or any car at all. It traditionally only takes one high profile change to start a chain reaction, last season it was Schumacher retiring... again, and Hamilton moving across to fill the seat. Down at the other end of the grid it is more often the case that drivers will be bumped off the grid by a large incoming pile of money - which is why we have Chilton and Gutierrez instead of Glock and Kobayashi, the issues at Sauber and Williams indicate that the need for money vs speed is slowly edging it's way toward the front. There is the slight insinuation that money is why Perez ended up at McLaren, but that is a borderline case as the Mexican is actually decent at what he does - but the call of why not Hulkenberg, or why not Di Resta will likely not go away until that car is up to scratch.
This season's catalyst is obviously Webber leaving to drive Porsche's new LMP1 car, and probably flip it given his record in Le Mans cars and the Mercedes CLK-GTR that spent a lot of time in the air. So I thought it would be a good idea, for Blog HQ to look at the options and have a rough guess at who will be where in 2014, the new era of small turbo-charged V6's and more KERs power.
The Top Division
Conventionally the most stable part of the grid, a realm of big money, big sponsors and much bigger expectations. In theory teams up at this end should be looking to maximise their driver line up to compete for wins and constructor points on both sides of the garage. However that can backfire - the most recent example being the McLaren 2007 pairing of Hamilton and Alonso, two of the quickest drivers managed to lose the title to Raikkonen by annoying each other. Not that Raikkonen cared, and almost unleashed the Kimi happy face.
Red Bull
Firstly Vettel is going nowhere, it would make sense to keep the German Bloke in situ - the combination has worked out rather well so far, constantly showing dominant pace in a car which is at times impossibly quick - three straight titles do not happen by accident. Yet there is an open space in the opposite garage bay, vacated by Webber. The general idea is that Torro Rosso's Ricciardo will move in, making it two drivers in the team that have come through the development ranks into the lead team. More importantly as a developing driver it might mean that Mr Vettel might get his own way more often, and the very top of the organisation might be more receptive of that option.
But... rumours and theories are that Kimi is in the running for that position, which would be a formidable pairing, frighteningly so, but could that result in conflict, because of anyone Kimi isn't too fond of playing the 'company game' and won't bow down to Vettel. Which is why he and Ferrari had a falling out in 2009.
2014 Estimation: Vettel and Ricciardo
Ferrari
It is very unclear what the future holds for Ferrari - it would make sense to hold onto Alonso, but he and the boss - Luca Di Montezemelo have not been the best of friends of late after Fernando criticised the car. The last time Luca was displeased Kimi found himself in a rally car the following season. However there are no real better options for Fernando, and if sense prevails Ferrari will keep the Spaniard.
Then there is Massa, who has been the very picture of inconsistency, which once more starts rumours about his future - a little sense of deja vu to 2012 - those rumours suddenly brought about a miraculous change and Massa was very strong in the final part of the year. Strong enough to take the bonus points title. But can he survive this season, for consistency he should be retained, but for a title challenge in the constructors... the position looks tentative.
So who could replace Massa, well the name being passed back and forth is Hulkenberg, which would be a very good move for the German considering how disappointing Sauber have been - and potentially Nico is a faster driver than Felipe. Importantly Hulkenberg wouldn't threaten Ferrari's default No.1 and No.2 driver policy. Also Raikkonen's name is being put forward with Ferrari as well, Kimi and Alonso is another devastatingly powerful line up but not something Ferrari does. If Raikkonen goes there it will be a straight swap with Alonso to Lotus.
2014 Estimation: Alonso and Massa
Mercedes
Of all the front running teams, Mercedes don't look set to make any changes, they went through that last time when Schumacher left, much to the elation of Sauber, because Schumacher tended to like crashing into them. If it wasn't for Perez being to the inside of Vergne - Michael would have crafted a 100% of assaulting Saubers in Singapore. So Mercedes get to sit back and watch everyone fight over drivers and throwing money around without needing to get involved.
2014 Estimation: Hamilton and Rosberg
Lotus
What happens at Lotus pretty much depends on what Raikkonen does and where he ends up - which may just be a case of who has the best ice cream fridge given how much the Finn does like some ice cream. I reckon that if Lotus can hold on to Raikkonen then I can only assume they will, so far Kimi has been connected with almost everyone in the top half of the grid. If he does head off somewhere then where do they look for a replacement, possibly Valselcchi the GP2 champion, or bring back Petrov or Bruno Senna. Then there is the option of bringing someone forward - hiring Bianchi might appeal to Renault.
Then there is what do we do with Grosjean - he is more than enough pace to stay on with the team, but brings with that a large repair bill from running into everyone and making contact with roughly every barrier in Monaco. But if Raikkonen does leave, than Romain should be retained for consistency. Overall the Raikkonen rumours may just be that, and therefore the line-up will remain unchanged.
2014 Estimation: Raikkonen and Grosjean
McLaren
Despite being at the bottom of the first division McLaren can still be considered as a top team, and both drivers should be safe. However as soon as all this driver discussion started to rear it's head, it was very promptly noted that Jenson does not have a 2014 contract at the team - Button himself has indicated his loyalty to the team every time it is brought up, but also put in a lot of praise for Ferrari, who might have an opening. In the end I don't see Jenson going anywhere this is a good place for him to be if the car gets better that is.
As for Perez, well this is an opening season in a big team with a car that is a million miles off the pace it should be running at. Therefore it would be unfair to boot the Mexican out of the team, because Sergio has been doing a decent job, and has been a match for Jenson at times. But surprise, surprise the only driver that has been linked to taking away one of the seats at the team is Raikkonen, but he's been linked to everyone since Lotus have been working with financial issues.
2014 Estimation: Button and Perez
The Mid-Field
This is where the money starts to take over an influence driver selection and hiring, as usual teams would like to select drivers on ability and pace alone, but that is often no economically viable. But despite that there are teams with greater financial security, and support from bigger friends further up the grid. So the blog investigates where this part of the grid will end up.
Force India
Of all the teams in this part of the grid Force India have been making considerable strides through the field and into the top ten, a world away from their début in 2008 - with Sutil and Fisichella. On the evidence of how the season has been for the team, it would make no sense to change the pairing unless one of the current drivers is called for duties elsewhere. Because that is rather unlikely I see Force India starting 2014 with the same two drivers, despite the amount of whining that Di Resta gets up to.
Sauber
One of the most interesting teams moving into the new season is Sauber, because they are fishing around for that little extra money, which lead them to Russia - which is where the Sirotkin rumour comes into play. Sergey is effectively a child but because of the money involve could find himself on the grid in 2014 - he has already had a seat fitting at the team, but should spend a season only doing free practices before actually being in a race seat. The same principle brought Gutierrez into the team, and he has been a little erratic at best some good weekends but more not so good ones - and it is the same volume of money that could keep the Mexican in place.
Hulkenberg however might be moving on, if Massa is given the boot, and therefore would open the door for another driver to join the team. If this is the case Sirotkin could be fast-tracked into place, which is a risky option - or Sauber's Ferrari connections could see Bianchi adopted. I reckon if a gap opens up somewhere in the middle of the park, then Bianchi would be a decent fit anywhere. Otherwise Sauber might have to look at who has the biggest bank balance if their points scoring threat moves on to bigger and better things.
2014 Estimation: Gutierrez and Hulkenberg
Torro Rosso
With Ricciardo inevitably moving on to Red Bull, one seat will likely open up, but Torro Rosso have a habit of disposing of perfectly good drivers, the likes of Buemi, Alguersuari and even multiple champ-car champion Sebastian Bourdais were shown the door. So no-one is ever truly safe in Red Bull's development program, Vergne's time may be coming to an end as rumours start to circulate about who will replace Ricciardo. It is a list from which Torro Rosso might not just select a single candidate.
Martin Brundle suggested that Felix Da Costa from the World Series by Renault might be making the step up, while German reporters have claimed that Felipe Nasr (yes that will make things immensely confusing) will join the team. On top of that there is the option that former Red Bull supported Canadian Robert Wickens, currently hiding out in DTM might be up for a drive. This is the problem with a very busy development program, there are more drivers going in then there are places to put them all. The likes of Neel Jani, Micheal Ammermuller and Robert Doornbos were all in the program and only scored one practice drive among them. Even then Robert displeased Alonso in his single stint in the Red Bull car in Hungary many years ago.
2014 Estimation: Felipe Nasr and Felix Da Costa
Williams
Like Force India, things at Willams are likely to remain fairly stable, Maldonado is safe because of the influx of money he brings with him from Venezuela - which is clearly enough money to cover an every growing list of repairs from assaulting other teams. Yet despite ramming the entire Force India team in Belgium, Pastor's car could still finish the race, perhaps Maldonado can bring in some commission from his fort building empire he started in Monaco. There are some similar barriers in Singapore if he wants to develop new fort designs. Bottas is a developing driver and is a strong prospect for the future, and if Williams have a car that could score points then Bottas would be a good talent to keep around until such time he gets poached by someone further up the grid.
The Bottom Tier
Here the driver turnover is more significant, 75% of the seats this year are held by rookie drivers, and the most experienced driver has only completed one season, in world which is not only influenced by highly backed drivers, but dominated by it. If we look at Chilton for example, he and his sponsors have funded positions at top teams all through the development steps en route to F1. But is it also a hunting ground for bigger teams to spot new talented drivers coming from the lower formulae, for example Alonso made his debut for back row team Minardi in 2001, and Webber started in the same team in 2002 and look where they are now.
Caterham
Firstly Pic already has a solid contract for the upcoming season, so his position is safe for the time being at the team which only calls into question whether Van Der Garde will be replaced. Giedo came onto the grid under the air of bad feeling that hangs around 'pay drivers' but over the course of the season the Dutchman has been increasingly impressive. A strong race at Hungary was backed up after the summer break with a very good race at Spa, which should make his position more secure coming into the coming year.
But, Caterham also have an extensive development program, in GP2 there is Sergio Canamassas who would be the definition of a surprise signing... and having him and Maldonado, Perez, Grosjean and Gutierrez would turn the sport into a demolition derby event. However Sergio's team-mate in the Caterham junior team is Alex Rossi who would be a much stronger selection. If a change is to come at Caterham with regards to Van Der Garde, Rossi would take that seat.
2014 Estimation: Pic and Van Der Garde
Marussia
Marussia may have started the season well, with Bianchi being the immediate surprise of the season out performing what the pace of the car should be, but since then Caterham caught and passed them on pace, but Marussia still hold onto that important 10th place in the constructors championship. Bianchi we assume will be picked up by someone if a gap opens up elsewhere, and therefore there is potentially one seat opening up at the team. They also have a junior team, because underneath the layers of ownership and sponsors the team is effectively Manor competition with a heritage in junior formula racing. In that team there is a quick New Zealander named Mitch Evans who has had some strong showings in the class.
But then there is money, and without knowing all the financial details of the drivers involved but something tells me that Venezuelan Johnny Cecotto Jr may have a bigger bank account. If adding Canamassas to the roster was a recipe for destruction, Cecotto would be apocalyptic - but on the plus side he will be in a Marussia so the likelihood of him being close enough to anyone to run into is limited. That said Chilton managed to force Maldonado into his fort building exercise routine, and Cecotto is not slow by any means, just a little aggressive, and takes things a little too far at times. Cecotto has even managed to make it onto the penalty points table for trying to push Sam Bird into a different time zone during qualifying for the GP2 race at Malaysia. In the end Chilton may stay but Bianchi may need replacing.
2014 Estimation: Chilton and Cecotto... be very afraid
These estimations can change very quickly based on a couple of key announcements we are all waiting on, including on where Kimi ends up and whether Massa gets to stay, because that will move Hulkenberg and in turn potentially makes a opening for Bianchi. So things are very tentative right now, the picture should become slightly clearer from one weekend to the next, that is of course if new rumours don't circulate... and what are the chances of that. It is worth noting that Monza is next, Ferrari HQ as it were so perhaps clarity on Massa and the team might be more forthcoming on home soil.
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