The Increasingly Sillier Silly-Season

Greetings Internet,

Well it is around this time of the year where everyone is trying to secure a drive for the coming season, preferably in a car which is a little faster or more reliable than the one they are currently sitting in... or any car at all. It traditionally only takes one high profile change to start a chain reaction, last season it was Schumacher retiring... again, and Hamilton moving across to fill the seat. Down at the other end of the grid it is more often the case that drivers will be bumped off the grid by a large incoming pile of money - which is why we have Chilton and Gutierrez instead of Glock and Kobayashi, the issues at Sauber and Williams indicate that the need for money vs speed is slowly edging it's way toward the front. There is the slight insinuation that money is why Perez ended up at McLaren, but that is a borderline case as the Mexican is actually decent at what he does - but the call of why not Hulkenberg, or why not Di Resta will likely not go away until that car is up to scratch.

This season's catalyst is obviously Webber leaving to drive Porsche's new LMP1 car, and probably flip it given his record in Le Mans cars and the Mercedes CLK-GTR that spent a lot of time in the air. So I thought it would be a good idea, for Blog HQ to look at the options and have a rough guess at who will be where in 2014, the new era of small turbo-charged V6's and more KERs power.

The Top Division

Conventionally the most stable part of the grid, a realm of big money, big sponsors and much bigger expectations. In theory teams up at this end should be looking to maximise their driver line up to compete for wins and constructor points on both sides of the garage. However that can backfire - the most recent example being the McLaren 2007 pairing of Hamilton and Alonso, two of the quickest drivers managed to lose the title to Raikkonen by annoying each other. Not that Raikkonen cared, and almost unleashed the Kimi happy face.

Red Bull

Firstly Vettel is going nowhere, it would make sense to keep the German Bloke in situ - the combination has worked out rather well so far, constantly showing dominant pace in a car which is at times impossibly quick - three straight titles do not happen by accident. Yet there is an open space in the opposite garage bay, vacated by Webber. The general idea is that Torro Rosso's Ricciardo will move in, making it two drivers in the team that have come through the development ranks into the lead team. More importantly as a developing driver it might mean that Mr Vettel might get his own way more often, and the very top of the organisation might be more receptive of that option.

But... rumours and theories are that Kimi is in the running for that position, which would be a formidable pairing, frighteningly so, but could that result in conflict, because of anyone Kimi isn't too fond of playing the 'company game' and won't bow down to Vettel. Which is why he and Ferrari had a falling out in 2009.

2014 Estimation: Vettel and Ricciardo

Ferrari

It is very unclear what the future holds for Ferrari - it would make sense to hold onto Alonso, but he and the boss - Luca Di Montezemelo have not been the best of friends of late after Fernando criticised the car. The last time Luca was displeased Kimi found himself in a rally car the following season. However there are no real better options for Fernando, and if sense prevails Ferrari will keep the Spaniard.

Then there is Massa, who has been the very picture of inconsistency, which once more starts rumours about his future - a little sense of deja vu to 2012 - those rumours suddenly brought about a miraculous change and Massa was very strong in the final part of the year. Strong enough to take the bonus points title. But can he survive this season, for consistency he should be retained, but for a title challenge in the constructors... the position looks tentative.

So who could replace Massa, well the name being passed back and forth is Hulkenberg, which would be a very good move for the German considering how disappointing Sauber have been - and potentially Nico is a faster driver than Felipe. Importantly Hulkenberg wouldn't threaten Ferrari's default No.1 and No.2 driver policy. Also Raikkonen's name is being put forward with Ferrari as well, Kimi and Alonso is another devastatingly powerful line up but not something Ferrari does. If Raikkonen goes there it will be a straight swap with Alonso to Lotus.

2014 Estimation: Alonso and Massa

Mercedes

Of all the front running teams, Mercedes don't look set to make any changes, they went through that last time when Schumacher left, much to the elation of Sauber, because Schumacher tended to like crashing into them. If it wasn't for Perez being to the inside of Vergne - Michael would have crafted a 100% of assaulting Saubers in Singapore. So Mercedes get to sit back and watch everyone fight over drivers and throwing money around without needing to get involved.

2014 Estimation: Hamilton and Rosberg

Lotus

What happens at Lotus pretty much depends on what Raikkonen does and where he ends up - which may just be a case of who has the best ice cream fridge given how much the Finn does like some ice cream. I reckon that if Lotus can hold on to Raikkonen then I can only assume they will, so far Kimi has been connected with almost everyone in the top half of the grid. If he does head off somewhere then where do they look for a replacement, possibly Valselcchi the GP2 champion, or bring back Petrov or Bruno Senna. Then there is the option of bringing someone forward - hiring Bianchi might appeal to Renault.

Then there is what do we do with Grosjean - he is more than enough pace to stay on with the team, but brings with that a large repair bill from running into everyone and making contact with roughly every barrier in Monaco. But if Raikkonen does leave, than Romain should be retained for consistency. Overall the Raikkonen rumours may just be that, and therefore the line-up will remain unchanged.

2014 Estimation: Raikkonen and Grosjean

McLaren

Despite being at the bottom of the first division McLaren can still be considered as a top team, and both drivers should be safe. However as soon as all this driver discussion started to rear it's head, it was very promptly noted that Jenson does not have a 2014 contract at the team - Button himself has indicated his loyalty to the team every time it is brought up, but also put in a lot of praise for Ferrari, who might have an opening. In the end I don't see Jenson going anywhere this is a good place for him to be if the car gets better that is.

As for Perez, well this is an opening season in a big team with a car that is a million miles off the pace it should be running at. Therefore it would be unfair to boot the Mexican out of the team, because Sergio has been doing a decent job, and has been a match for Jenson at times. But surprise, surprise the only driver that has been linked to taking away one of the seats at the team is Raikkonen, but he's been linked to everyone since Lotus have been working with financial issues.

2014 Estimation: Button and Perez

The Mid-Field

This is where the money starts to take over an influence driver selection and hiring, as usual teams would like to select drivers on ability and pace alone, but that is often no economically viable. But despite that there are teams with greater financial security, and support from bigger friends further up the grid. So the blog investigates where this part of the grid will end up.

Force India

Of all the teams in this part of the grid Force India have been making considerable strides through the field and into the top ten, a world away from their début in 2008 - with Sutil and Fisichella. On the evidence of how the season has been for the team, it would make no sense to change the pairing unless one of the current drivers is called for duties elsewhere. Because that is rather unlikely I see Force India starting 2014 with the same two drivers, despite the amount of whining that Di Resta gets up to.

Sauber

One of the most interesting teams moving into the new season is Sauber, because they are fishing around for that little extra money, which lead them to Russia - which is where the Sirotkin rumour comes into play. Sergey is effectively a child but because of the money involve could find himself on the grid in 2014 - he has already had a seat fitting at the team, but should spend a season only doing free practices before actually being in a race seat. The same principle brought Gutierrez into the team, and he has been a little erratic at best some good weekends but more not so good ones - and it is the same volume of money that could keep the Mexican in place.

Hulkenberg however might be moving on, if Massa is given the boot, and therefore would open the door for another driver to join the team. If this is the case Sirotkin could be fast-tracked into place, which is a risky option - or Sauber's Ferrari connections could see Bianchi adopted. I reckon if a gap opens up somewhere in the middle of the park, then Bianchi would be a decent fit anywhere. Otherwise Sauber might have to look at who has the biggest bank balance if their points scoring threat moves on to bigger and better things.

2014 Estimation: Gutierrez and Hulkenberg

Torro Rosso

With Ricciardo inevitably moving on to Red Bull, one seat will likely open up, but Torro Rosso have a habit of disposing of perfectly good drivers, the likes of Buemi, Alguersuari and even multiple champ-car champion Sebastian Bourdais were shown the door. So no-one is ever truly safe in Red Bull's development program, Vergne's time may be coming to an end as rumours start to circulate about who will replace Ricciardo. It is a list from which Torro Rosso might not just select a single candidate.

Martin Brundle suggested that Felix Da Costa from the World Series by Renault might be making the step up, while German reporters have claimed that Felipe Nasr (yes that will make things immensely confusing) will join the team. On top of that there is the option that former Red Bull supported Canadian Robert Wickens, currently hiding out in DTM might be up for a drive. This is the problem with a very busy development program, there are more drivers going in then there are places to put them all. The likes of Neel Jani, Micheal Ammermuller and Robert Doornbos were all in the program and only scored one practice drive among them. Even then Robert displeased Alonso in his single stint in the Red Bull car in Hungary many years ago.

2014 Estimation: Felipe Nasr and Felix Da Costa

Williams 

Like Force India, things at Willams are likely to remain fairly stable, Maldonado is safe because of the influx of money he brings with him from Venezuela - which is clearly enough money to cover an every growing list of repairs from assaulting other teams. Yet despite ramming the entire Force India team in Belgium, Pastor's car could still finish the race, perhaps Maldonado can bring in some commission from his fort building empire he started in Monaco. There are some similar barriers in Singapore if he wants to develop new fort designs. Bottas is a developing driver and is a strong prospect for the future, and if Williams have a car that could score points then Bottas would be a good talent to keep around until such time he gets poached by someone further up the grid.

The Bottom Tier

Here the driver turnover is more significant, 75% of the seats this year are held by rookie drivers, and the most experienced driver has only completed one season, in world which is not only influenced by highly backed drivers, but dominated by it. If we look at Chilton for example, he and his sponsors have funded positions at top teams all through the development steps en route to F1. But is it also a hunting ground for bigger teams to spot new talented drivers coming from the lower formulae, for example Alonso made his debut for back row team Minardi in 2001, and Webber started in the same team in 2002 and look where they are now.

Caterham

Firstly Pic already has a solid contract for the upcoming season, so his position is safe for the time being at the team which only calls into question whether Van Der Garde will be replaced. Giedo came onto the grid under the air of bad feeling that hangs around 'pay drivers' but over the course of the season the Dutchman has been increasingly impressive. A strong race at Hungary was backed up after the summer break with a very good race at Spa, which should make his position more secure coming into the coming year.

But, Caterham also have an extensive development program, in GP2 there is Sergio Canamassas who would be the definition of a surprise signing... and having him and Maldonado, Perez, Grosjean and Gutierrez would turn the sport into a demolition derby event. However Sergio's team-mate in the Caterham junior team is Alex Rossi who would be a much stronger selection. If a change is to come at Caterham with regards to Van Der Garde, Rossi would take that seat.

2014 Estimation: Pic and Van Der Garde

Marussia

Marussia may have started the season well, with Bianchi being the immediate surprise of the season out performing what the pace of the car should be, but since then Caterham caught and passed them on pace, but Marussia still hold onto that important 10th place in the constructors championship. Bianchi we assume will be picked up by someone if a gap opens up elsewhere, and therefore there is potentially one seat opening up at the team. They also have a junior team, because underneath the layers of ownership and sponsors the team is effectively Manor competition with a heritage in junior formula racing. In that team there is a quick New Zealander named Mitch Evans who has had some strong showings in the class.

But then there is money, and without knowing all the financial details of the drivers involved but something tells me that Venezuelan Johnny Cecotto Jr may have a bigger bank account. If adding Canamassas to the roster was a recipe for destruction, Cecotto would be apocalyptic - but on the plus side he will be in a Marussia so the likelihood of him being close enough to anyone to run into is limited. That said Chilton managed to force Maldonado into his fort building exercise routine, and Cecotto is not slow by any means, just a little aggressive, and takes things a little too far at times. Cecotto has even managed to make it onto the penalty points table for trying to push Sam Bird into a different time zone during qualifying for the GP2 race at Malaysia. In the end Chilton may stay but Bianchi may need replacing.

2014 Estimation: Chilton and Cecotto... be very afraid



These estimations can change very quickly based on a couple of key announcements we are all waiting on, including on where Kimi ends up and whether Massa gets to stay, because that will move Hulkenberg and in turn potentially makes a opening for Bianchi. So things are very tentative right now, the picture should become slightly clearer from one weekend to the next, that is of course if new rumours don't circulate... and what are the chances of that. It is worth noting that Monza is next, Ferrari HQ as it were so perhaps clarity on Massa and the team might be more forthcoming on home soil.

Round 11: Belgium 2013 - Review

Greetings Internet,

First off, before we cover the events of the day I have to ask where on earth was all this rain that was predicted for the race - after all the fun it caused yesterday everyone here... well me, as blog HQ is merely a corner of the sofa, was really looking forward to the prospect of a wet race. Other than the first three corners in Malaysia we've had dry conditions on race day for the entire season, despite the amount of practice and qualifying events that have been interrupted by some precipitation. Spa as always promised so much and has often delivered on that promise, but today not too much - at the front of the field the race was virtually a complete formality outside the first four corners of the race. It was a race where the DRS on the Kemmel straight was all too often far too powerful and cars would just ease past one another, but some drivers were a little more adventurous - and Eau Rouge didn't claim any victims this weekend, in F1 anyway.

It is always a shame that the series moves away from Spa as it signifies that the traditional European season is drawing to a close, with only Monza left next time out - after that lies a range of new and typically over-engineered tracks. Of course there is still Suzuka and Interlagos in there which echo to the adoration of fans across the planet, something that Abu Dhabi and Korea struggle to attain. But this time around the Belgian GP will not be etched into the annuls of history of being a hive of activity and an enthralling challenge for victory, but I've seen considerably worse races.

The Race

I hoped to turn on the coverage to find the BBC crew holding umbrellas and standing in a puddle in the pit lane as rain descended on the circuit - yet there was sunshine and blue skies... at Spa, what madness was this. Twitter indicated that several showers had hit the circuit overnight but as day erupted it was bright with no threat of rain until well after the race was finished. So we started the formation lap in the dry making the strategists days considerably easier, and a little more uneventful.

Off the line the front row mad an even start but the main losers were Di Resta and Webber who lost ground which slowed the inside line down a little bit. So when the Lotus' and Webber went three wide through La Source a gap opened up for Alonso. Raikkonen and Grosjean went wide and Fernando used KERs to pass Webber into Eau Rouge - 10th to 5th by turn two isn't too bad. On the other side of Eau Rouge on the exit of Radillon Vettel seemed to have so much more speed than Hamilton and just eased past the Mercedes a long way before Les Combes. As it has been seen on so many occasions before the German Bloke was never seen of again. Somehow the first lap was completely contact free, only Massa asked his team about his front wing after getting close to the back of Raikkonen as the Lotus came back on after running wide in La Source.

For a while nothing too much took place, everyone just waiting for the DRS to be activated, Alonso had a go at passing Jenson on the Kemmel straight before the device was activated and the Ferrari simply couldn't out-drag the McLaren ahead of him. Out of those cars that broke into Q2 yesterday on the slicks both the Marussias had fallen to the back of the field - Chilton naturally taking up last place, while Van Der Garde was still in the place he qualified in, despite being under pressure from Maldonado and the Torro Rossos. But as soon as the DRS was activated the positions started to change, which didn't work out too well at all for Jenson Button - first he was passed by Alonso in the Ferrari, and one lap later it was Webber repeating the process shuffling the McLaren down to 6th place. One lap after that Alonso performed the same pass on Rosberg for 3rd.

While things were settling down at the front of the pack, attention turned to the mid-field where Di Resta found a line of cars growing behind him, headed by Hulkenberg and Raikkonen. Kimi was finding if difficult to pass the Sauber even with the DRS because the Lotus isn't the fastest car in the straight line. Behind them Grosjean and Perez were involved in a similar battle, except this time the Lotus was defending - Sergio used the DRS to get alongside and eased himself back onto the racing line before Les Combes. The problem being that Grosjean was still there and Perez squeezed the Frenchman off the side of the circuit and was promptly issued with a drive through penalty. Further up the train Kimi managed to gain a much better run through Eau Rouge then Hulkenberg to counter the lack of top speed to pass Hulkenberg into Les Combes without pushing anyone off. Because it is possible.

Slightly earlier than expected, the pit window opened and we entered the phase of the race where cars were in all kinds of positions through the field and generally being out of position - for example we had Hamilton doing battle with Grosjean as Lewis had stopped and Romain hadn't. Hamilton took the place initially, but refusing to be defeated Romain repassed the Mercedes in Les Combes, Hamilton tried again into the Bus Stop but Grosjean defended that attack effectively. As Vettel pitted from the lead, just to prove he still exists he found himself not leading the race because Jenson was staying out hoping for a one stop strategy to work out. Back in the middle of the field, Raikkonen was making his way forward after a stop and found himself behind Perez - the only car he keeps making contact with this season. This time things were more sensible, but due to a lack of straight line speed Kimi had to think outside the box a little - and made the pass stick round the outside of Bruxelles, which does not happen too often. The Finn wasn't done, following that pass up with one down the inside of Gutierrez into Rivage and the grand finale to his charge was a brilliant pass round the outside of Di Resta in the final chicane.

However Raikkonen's day was about to implode as he caught Massa, the Lotus had been releasing clouds of brake dust from the left front for quite a while, and as Kimi went down the inside of the Ferrari into the Bus Stop the brakes finally died. The Lotus ran off wide, and returned to the pits for retirement, ending a monumental streak of race and points finishes. Elsewhere the Force India team were having fun with Perez, as Di Resta was attacking the McLaren Sutil passed the pair of them almost running three wide on the straight down to Eau Rouge until Adrian took the place. As Perez pitted the Force India squadron caught up to the back of the battle between Maldonado and Gutierrez. It had been a while since Maldonado had run into anyone so today he was about to make up for that. Firstly he tried to round the outside of Gutierrez in the Bus Stop after running side by side through blanchimont and then tried to make the pit-lane. The problem was the Force Indias were in the way - firstly he hit Sutil losing half his front wing, Pastor then tried to turn again towards the pit lane and wiped out Paul Di Resta. The second Force India was completely ruined and Maldonado ended up with a 10 second drive through penalty but was able to continue.

After escaping the melee Sutil found himself side by side with Gutierrez approaching Eau Rouge, the Mexican pushed Adrian to the edge of the track but left just enough room, but Adrian kept the boot in and passed his second car turning into Eau Rouge. But with this battle pack broken up the order had roughly sorted itself out with sensible gaps through the field. Vettel was in a different universe in the lead, Alonso in second also had no-one near him - Hamilton was the only car in the top three that could see anyone else as his mirrors had Rosberg and Webber in them albeit with three seconds between each car. Button had a lot of track space to his self in 6th, 11 seconds behind Webber. A couple of positional changes were left, as Massa took Grosjean for 7th demoting the Lotus to 8th. Down outside the points Gutierrez and Vergne were duelling, the Mexican went down the inside of the Torro Rosso in Les Combes, but Vergne held position easing Esteban off the road on the exit of the corner. But Gutierrez refused to be defeated and made the move stick - however the car was off the track and the stewards issued another daft penalty. Meanwhile Chilton also received a penalty for ignoring blue flags.

Our hopes were raised momentarily before the race drew to a close as Vettel's engineer informed him that there might be some rain on the way... but he inevitably lied because the race stayed completely dry to the end. Vettel crossed the line in a different time zone to everyone else... again. Alonso recovered from a poor qualifying with a strong race up into 2nd place, while Hamilton fell back to 3rd. Rosberg was able to hold of a brief charge from Webber to take fourth place not too far behind his team-mate. Despite having to give up on a single stop strategy Jenson brought the McLaren home in a respectable 6th place, scoring enough points to take the team ahead of Force India in the constructors. Massa finished 7th after passing Grosjean a few laps from the end, Sutil survived the mid-field contact to score some points in 9th, while Ricciardo - Webber's potential replacement - stole a final point from Sergio Perez at the end of the race.

The Bonus Points Championship Points Winners

This most recent visit to the Belgian GP circuit was not the most memorable of visits to the grandest of circuits on the current calendar, the rain never arrived and as predicted Vettel was able to vanish off into the distance.

• 25pts - Fernando Alonso  -10th to 5th in three corners, and then up into 3rd within 6 laps ultimately finishing best of everyone who isn't Vettel
• 18pts - Adrian Sutil - Two passes into Eau Rouge both on unpredictable Mexicans
• 15pts - Sebastian Vettel - For being dominant once more
• 12pts - Daniel Riccardo - 19th to 10th deserves a mention  
• 10pts - Kimi Raikkonen  - Some of the best overtaking manoeuvres of the day
• 8pts - Jenson Button - A decent day for the McLaren, beating a Ferrari and a Lotus on pace
• 6pts - Giedo Van Der Garde - For retaining his position longer than the other lower teams
• 4pts - Esteban Gutierrez - Did a good job today, and didn't deserve that late penalty
• 2pts - Pastor Madonado - Managed to hit two cars from the same team in one corner
• 1pt - Lewis Hamilton - For conspiring with Vettel to douse Coulthard in champagne on the podium

The Penalties Championship

The stewards have been a little weird over recent races and another brace of penalties have been unleashed again this weekend:

• Lotus Team - 5,000 EUR fine for an unsafe release of Grosjean's car in Q3
• Sergio Perez - Drive through penalty for forcing Grosjean off
• Max Chilton - Drive through penalty For ignoring blue flags
• Esteban Gutierrez - Drive through penalty For passing Vergne because that is apparently illegal now
• Maldonado - 10s stop and go penalty, for leading a one man assault on the entire Force India team

The Penalty Points Championship

Other than the official penalties because they are getting a little mental of late here are the in-house penalty points

• Rain - Where were you?
• The Stewards - Sometimes I wonder
• Jack Harvey - Caused a significant accident in the first GP3 race, but the chap oddly actually admitted to causing it

Looking ahead to Monza

From one massively fast high speed circuit to another, Monza has the highest average speed of any lap on the calendar and marks the conclusion of the European season before everyone packs their bags and flies out to the night race at Singapore. Monza is characterised by really long straights leading into several chicanes which on the basis of other races this season will be overly exploited by the powers that decide where the DRS zones are placed. Much in the same way as Spa in the sense that there is a chance of being taken out by an errant car in a chicane especially at the first corner. A situation demonstrated by Liuzzi in an HRT taking wild evasive action alongside Heikki and speared across the grass wiping out Rosberg and Petrov in the first corner. 

The season at this point is starting to look like a Vettel walkover again, that championship lead is constantly increasing, and is going to take some beating, especially if Vettel doesn't come across any problems. It was calculated that for Hamilton to beat the German Bloke he'd have to take - on average 5.5pts per race from the Red Driver, a little less for Alonso or Raikkonen. But Kimi's retirement plays into Sebastien's hands to make Alonso the new closest challenger. But things could be worse, for example in Formula Ford UK - Dan Cammish has won all 21 races of the season, which is taking dominance way too far. Perhaps Monza will be different, technically not a Red Bull circuit, but neither was Spa, so until then this is farewell from blog HQ.

Round 11: Belgium 2013 - Qualifying

Greetings Internet,

Well done Belgium, well done indeed - that is why this race is so highly regarded and why the circuit is the immense venue that it is, because that was one of the greatest qualifying sessions in a very long while. It had everything, drivers and teams making brilliant gambles and those that didn't quite pay off as well as it seemed. Despite having the same four cars holding the top four spaces on the grid as we have seen over the past few races, it doesn't come close to covering the story of what happened today - and miraculously as the conditions swapped from wet to damp to dry to sideways rain and back to dry again, no-one ended up tearing wheels of the cars and planting it in the barrier.

The early indication through free practice was that Red Bull would walk away with things, 0.8s up on the field in FP2 in the dry - not that Spa does dry too often - so if the track is dry tomorrow I can just see someone vanishing off into the distance. But add some moisture into that mix and the race is anyone's - perhaps not the epic madness of 1998, but something of that order would be nice and a Caterham, Marussia podium... well perhaps that would be asking a little much, even of Spa. So just how did things fall into shape today.

Qualifying

The timing was perfect at the very beginning of the session, because as soon as everyone started to get ready to join Q1, the rain began to fall and there was enough rain to justify the teams starting on the intermediate tyres. Williams and Torro Rosso queued at the end of the pit-lane almost two minutes before the light turned green. Maldonado was instructed to set a banker lap in case it got wetter, and promptly went off at Le Combes and missed the chicane.

With the conventional faces running at the front of the grid as the rain stopped, but the track was still way too wet for slicks, a certain Esteban Gutierrez was running second and stayed in the top five for the majority of the session. As the track started to dry off there were some drivers in some very odd positions - Alonso and Massa were in relegation, Raikkonen and Vettel were just on the other side of the zone. But times started to fall rapidly dropping Gutierrez from the top five into the relegation zone as Alonso went fastest and the rest of the front runners followed him up.

Then something magical happened those at the very back took a mad decision to put slicks on, but the plan worked exceedingly well, even having to evade Di Resta who was spinning in the middle of the bus-stop chicane. Chilton ended the session 16th... miraculously was the man not last, but into Q2. But because Bianchi is faster he finished 11th which in itself is just outstanding, but it is not the best showing. Giedo Van Der Garde was 3rd... yes the car was on slicks, but a Caterham... 3rd that deserves a high five and several bonus points.

In Q2 it was completely dry, and no-one was waiting in pit-lane to take to the track immediately as the light turned green and in a day of vastly changing conditions Q2 was a completely normal session. Red Bull put the harder compound tyres on and Webber sat at the top of the timings for a while. Until he was defeated by Raikkonen and Alonso joined the party in 3rd in the Ferrari. It could be considered fortunate that it didn't rain much more or Raikkonen would be popping round to Ferrari to raid the ice cream fridge again. Yet Hamilton and Vettel, were just sitting around in the garage not doing too much as the session reached the half way point

It seemed that this session was showing that the competition for a potential pole position was going to be very entertaining as Red Bull, Alonso and Raikkonen were setting very similar times with Mercedes, Grosjean and Massa not too far behind. But they were not having it their own way, Jenson and Force India were in the middle of that battle which pushed Hamilton very close to relegation, only 0.02s ahead of Hulkenberg's Sauber. Cutting things a little close as Lewis was fourth as the chequered flag fell and finished tenth as others completed their laps.

Now Q3 was fun, very fun indeed, rain was coming back so everyone lined up in the pit lane hoping to complete a lap before it arrived... well not quite everyone because Di Resta (and the team not that Paul acknowledged the help) predicted a lot of rain and put the inters on and waited. That rain arrived as the other cars reached stavelot and came down with anger, the two Lotus' were powersliding two wide through Blanchimont - not recommended ever but both survived. They pitted leaving Di Resta with the track to himself in the lightest of the rain and swept into the lead. Everyone else swapped onto the inters and were miles off Pauls pace as rain intensified.

Di Resta was looking very happy and safe, it was raining sideways and cars were losing seconds per sector - except Rosberg who was only half a second down, somehow it didn't make a whole heap of sense but fair enough. Then all the sideways rain suddenly stopped and the track virtually dried instantly - we saw people with brushes clearing water in Canada and Australia but in Spa it just left. And in an instant Di Resta's pole hopes also evaporated, Rosberg pounced first and took the place away followed the two Red Bulls deposing the Scot yet further. Where was Mr Di Resta in this, well he, like most of us assumed he was safe and was sitting in the garage. Eventually the battle for pole came down to Vettel vs Hamilton the only two drivers to manage to do one more lap than the rest a battle which fell once more to a Mercedes driver and another pole to Hamilton. While the other title contenders Alonso and Raikkonen didn't get that extra lap and are at the back of the top ten.

The Bonus Points Championship Points Winners 

Where do I begin with that session, everyone probably should have some points for keeping it out of the wall as the weather was all over the place but there were some very points worthy performances to put on the board today.

• 10pts - Giedo Van Der Garde - 3rd in a Caterham, 3rd...
• 8pts  - Paul Di Resta - Almost complete genius move in Q3
• 6pts - Chilton/Bianchi - Bianchi 11th, and Chilton not being last which is miraculous
• 5pts - Nico Rosberg - How on earth do you only lose half a second in sideways rain
• 4pts - Esteban Gutierrez - Second in Q1 on equal tyres even if it was temporary 
• 3pts - Lewis Hamilton - That car should not be on pole how it has been so far, yet it still is
• 2pts - Raikkonen/Grosjean - Two wide on slicks in the wet in Blanchimont without an accident
• 1pt - Rain - because that was epic

Looking to tomorrow 

Very few races look as exciting or as tantalising as this one does because they way this weekend is shaping up looks amazing, we have a grid with key cars out of position - Red Bull and Mercedes are at the front, while Lotus and Ferrari are at the opposite end of the top ten. Sitting in the middle of this melee is Di Resta and Jenson - the only plus point for Alonso is that he starts behind Grosjean who almost took his head off this time last season. This pattern extends to the back of the grid where Marussia and Van Der Garde are in the middle of the mid-field in cars which in equal conditions are a lot slower than anything around them which could lead to all kinds of mayhem.

Just when that seems like a brilliant configuration as is, place that on the most challenging and dynamic circuit on the calendar which has seen so many epic and enduring races and the thought of those 44 laps tomorrow is massively exciting. However that is by far and away not all because those 44 laps on such a brilliant circuit may be taking place in very changeable or even full wet conditions - everything points to this being the best race of the season. So until then farewell from blog HQ, managing to complete the post before midnight. 

Round 11: Belgium 2013 - Preview

Greetings Internet,

Finally, the wait is over, as the summer break comes to a much anticipated conclusion, returning on what is a very busy motorsport weekend. Because we have BTCC, Indycar, V8 Supercars and all of the F1 support events all taking place over the next few days - the hard drive in the sky box is weeping at the prospect of having to store it all. Here at the end of that break, waiting to embrace the second half what has been a rather complex and often angry season - people have been angry at Pirelli for doing their job, team-mates have been angry at each other, and Di Resta is often angry at his team for pretty much everything, we have the greatest track of them all. The one and only Spa-Francorchamps...

During the time off the rumour mill has been rotating at breakneck speed, all manner of driver line-ups have been postulated heading into the 2014 season, everything hinging on the fate of Felipe Massa, and that empty space at Red Bull. The odds seem to suggest that Ricciardo is going to replace Webber - from the development program - but the other suggestion is that Raikkonen will take the seat, which could set off a sequence of events. Other theories see Kimi to Ferrari alongside Alonso, or that Massa is replaced by Hulkenberg and Alonso goes back to Lotus alongside Grosjean considering he and Luca Di Montezemelo have not been making friends at the moment. It turns out the big man at Ferrari doesn't like Fernando complaining about the car, even though Spaniard does have a very valid point. I can sense things are going to start to unravel, and with the likes of Sirotkin lurking with money from Russia, the grid next season could look very different. Of course there is the potential that all these rumours and suggestions are only smoke and mirrors - Ricciardo will take the seat and the status quo will remain elsewhere.

The Track

In a season peppered with all these new fangled Tilke-based circuits something none of those huge scale developments come anywhere near the quality of the outstanding Spa-Francorchamps, 7km of splendour, power and overall greatness. The calendar could do with a few more of these please. The Belgian GP follows the contours of the land through the Ardennes - using the elevation to it's advantage from the top of the hill on the entry to Les Combes, descending through Rivage and the double apexed challenge of Pouhon.

The layout itself has been subjected to some modifications in and around the pit area, the majority of which can only be described as blasphemy frankly, La Source was sharpened allocating more room on the outside as run-off space. In some respects it was a tolerable adjustment, but the things that were done at the other end of the pit straight border on unforgivable, the sacrilegious effort of redeveloping the Bus-stop chicane is the one blot on the copybook that is brought up each season. Everything about it is hateful, the apexes are too tight and it is chicane with a monumental amount of space between the two phases of the corner.

Other than those flaws, the track has everything including the infamous and legendary Eau Rouge corner, an uphill climb that is known throughout the motor-racing world, even though in the modern era of extreme downforce it is less of a challenge... in the dry at least. The same could be said for Blanchimont at the end of the lap, made even more subdued with the tarmac run-off space. But given the magnitude of some of the accidents in the key corners I think I can forgive the removal of the gravel. Those huge BAR accidents in 1999 on their own were enough to have the gravel taken from Eau Rouge. Spa not only typifies European circuit design, where flow and driving challenge is placed far above what the layout looks like on a piece of paper on a design office desk, but completely excels at it. Because of the rhythm and flow of the corners, unlike the newer layouts each corner flows into the next rather than being designed as a separate unrelated entity separated by excessively long straights.

If the layout wasn't strong enough the climate is such an intrinsic part of the event it is almost fused with the track itself, and looking at the predicted forecasts it could get very interesting.

What to expect

It's been a while, but tyres and complaining to Pirelli may resurface again at the track with the highest corner loads in Blachimont and Eau Rouge - the fastest corners of the entire season, it was for this event in 2011 that Pirelli imposed strict camber limits to prevent failures. It will be a strong test for the redeveloped tyre construction.

In terms of car performance, power of the track will help the Mercedes powered cars, for example it has always been a strong track for Force India - Fisichella almost took the teams first win in 2009, before Raikkonen scored the first KERs influenced victory. On the other hand a flowing downforce based middle sector will favour the Red Bull team - which once more opens the door rather wide for another Vettel victory. Because Spa is a low downforce circuit overall, the difference through the field is likely to be more compressed - even allowing McLaren to be competitive and potentially steering clear of the qualifying relegation zones. Each week there is the issue of where Ferrari and Lotus will be in the standings as both teams have had issues with the new tyre construction and their performances are increasingly temperature dependant - and Spa doesn't look like being a warm weekend.

A potentially chaotic rain effected race on a track with a closer time difference between the contenders give hope to those people at the bottom of the field - only 8 cars finished a rain affected race in 1998 because that was a very destructive event. If Michael Bay directed races, they would probably end up like that one. But in this modern era, if that amount of rain was to arrive everything would be cancelled, red flagged and left alone - which is odd frankly, you'd think modern cars with all this fancy technology foiled by a little monsoon. The problem is to do with aquaplaning and visibility - it happened in 98 too Aquaplaning under braking caused Fisichella to tear his Bennetton apart when crashing very heavily into the back of the Minardi of Shinji Nakano at the Bus Stop chicane. Hindered by visibility in spray coming off the back of the Japanese driver's car, visibility also prevented Schumacher from seeing Coulthard as the Scott moved offline to allow the German to lap him before Pouhon. It's moments like these that make Spa well worth the wait through the summer break for.

A mid-season review, of how people have been getting on

Greetings Internet,

Well this summer break seems to be going on for ever, and sea of loutish hooliganism that is the football season is going to take over the lives of the approximate seven people who support football. So I thought this was the best time to introduce some common sense and parity to the internet before it all goes to hell for a while. Then again I was watching NASCAR online the other week and the amount of anger and animosity some people had against particular drivers was ludicrous - the chat panel was a wash of 'fans' demanding drivers they dislike to crash out at every corner. I mean I've been displeased about the odd competitor from time to time - Hamilton's completely mental 2011 season comes to mind, but don't recall actively wishing the chap to visit the scenery. Can't we all just get along - it gets worse when this aggression spills onto the track, back to NASCAR, and there has been some almighty accidents simply because of 'payback' or a general stubborn lack of respect for each other's space on track. Yet in this football nonsense that is going to be plaguing us for several months, violence towards one another is a weekly occurrence, and is almost a job requirement, along with deception, racism, greed and almost every other deplorable trait of the species' declining humanity.

On that note, time to lighten things up a bit before this, like so many other posts that came before it turns into a large and increasingly angry rant. Today, a considerable time after everyone else has done a similar thing it is time to look at how our cast of drivers has done so far at the pseudo-halfway point of the year, actual half way would have been the New Jersey GP but that disappeared after Hurricane Sandy and financial problems delayed the event until potentially 2014... if ever. I shall go through the grid in reverse order, based on the bonus points championship - because what better metric is there? I know various other entities are in the table, and to avoid this post being longer than Danica's list of non-supporters I'll stick to the 22 people that have a race seat on a Sunday afternoon.

At the end of the line

2013 hasn't been the best season for some, and fairly torrid for others languishing at this end of the table, while some drivers have been hampered by a diabolically under performing car  and struggling to make any impact on the championship. Furthermore the TV directors this season seem to forget that anyone outside the top 10 exists making it difficult to hand out points for being interesting or entertaining while being invisible. But here are the lowest 6 scorers so far:

22nd place (12pts): Max Chilton
It is no great surprise to see Max in last place, Chilton has made it all the way up the development ladder through substantial backing from the same company that funds his brother Tom and the lead Chevrolet team in the WTCC. For the most part Max has been the very definition of unspectacular - with the only positive of the season is that Chilton has finished all races thus far, albeit last, and did force Maldonado to build a fort at Tabac corner in Monaco

21st place (16pts): Pastor Maldonado
Williams have not had a strong car this season, in fact is has been rather dire indeed if Rosbergs car didn't catch fire in Hungary the entire team would have no points at all this far into the season. As for Maldonado, he has hit far fewer people than normal, likely because everyone else is too fast and the Caterhams and Marussias are miles off the pace of anything. It has been a virtually anonymous season so far, so much that Pastor turned a large accident in Monaco into a spot of fort building DIY - with Chilton's help.

20th place (19pts): Valtteri Bottas
Despite being one of the most impressive rookies on the grid, including a stunning third place grid start in Canada, Valtteri finds himself at the bottom of the table, because the car is useless we barely see the Finn throughout the weekend, but if Williams can improve the car Bottas has more than enough pace and ability to start scoring points - and perhaps instigate the sort of comeback charge that scored Massa the 2012 bonus points title despite being nowhere at this point in time.

19th place (23pts) Esteban Gutierrez 
Esteban has been a terrible replacement for Kamui Kobayashi, spending a lot of time in relegation in Q1 and occasionally a liability on track - which is odd because his GP3 performances were strong. But the Sauber is also not a good car this season, which prevents Gutierrez from being able to shake the stigma of being a generic under-performing pay driver. Despite leading some laps in Spain on strategy, Esteban hasn't really shown too much potential, however it is very early days.

18th place (26pts) Charles Pic
There were high hopes for Caterham this season, perhaps to challenge a team that didn't just come into being in 2010, and Pic was supposed to be the leader of that crusade as the only driver with experience in the bottom four seats. There has been flashes of speed but no spectacular results, but more often than not Pic and Caterham lead the lowest division after a spirited start to 2013 by nearest rivals Marussia.

17th place (36pts) Giedo Van Der Garde
A driver like Chilton we expected to turn up in Australia and have a fairly useless season, but it hasn't turn out that way for Van Der Garde, the Dutchman has been the only driver from the lowest set of teams to make it into Q2 and has had some really strong races, Hungary being a notable example defeating the entire bottom division on pace despite being out-qualified. On the other side Giedo has suffered from some brain-fade moments, getting in the way of everyone in Canada and attacking Maldonado (pre-fort building) in Monaco.

Moving into the mid-field

Some seasons are just average, and so you find yourself in the middle of the field - at least under a conventional scoring system, but the bonus points championship is far from conventional. Here those in the middle of the park have had the odd race or sequence of races doing something worth handing out points for but then faded into the background, or just were boring for a while and fell of the scoreboard at the end of the weekend. So here are the drivers from 16th to 11th.

16th place (36pts) Nico Hulkenberg
Just like Bottas, Hulkenberg is a really quick driver trapped in a difficult car, early in the season the Sauber was nowhere, but unlike Gutierrez Nico has been able to force some results out of a poor vehicle. Hulkenberg is soley responsible for the entire team's points haul (in the FIA standings not this one) and has pretty much dominated proceedings over his rookie team-mate. Nico's name is presently in the mix for a potential upgrade if things move around a lot at the front of the grid.

15th place (43pts) Sergio Perez
Perez is learning that the days of one-stopping and stealing a podium are over, the McLaren isn't as tyre-friendly as the Sauber was, then again neither is the current Sauber... Sergio is trying to make the best of a poor car as so many have had to thus far in the standings, his titanic battle with Jenson in Bahrain was outstanding. But an aggressive driving style has resulted in some accident damage, usually with a rather angry Kimi - in Monaco and China.

14th place (48pts) Jean Eric Vergne
In a replica of 2012, Vergne has amassed the largest amount of points in the Torro Rosso team despite being slower on pace and generally out-qualified, and I have no idea how on earth that happens. Something that Alguersuari was very good at, magically appearing in the points from nowhere on the grid, to make things more confusing Vergne has had the worst reliability record of anyone this season with mechanical and tyre failures.

13th place (48pts) Jules Bianchi
If there was an award for rookie of the season is would certainly go to Bianchi - Alonso did a similar thing in a Minardi in 2001 and look where he is at the moment, so things look good for Jules, so much so even his car got points driving by itself in Germany. Bianchi has got the most out of the Marussia, which sadly still isn't much pace especially since Caterham have moved on a bit, but unlike Chilton Bianchi still can keep up with them and challenge to claim that 10th place in the constructors championship for the team.

12th place (58pts) Daniel Ricciardo
Has demonstrated a lot of qualifying pace in the Torro Rosso and general speed, which has put the Australian in the shop window for Webber's seat in 2014 - yet that pace doesn't always translate into a points position allowing Vergne to sweep in from nowhere and lead the team in the standings. While lacking consistency at times Ricciardo unleashed some spectacular high bonus points scoring performances but not enough to make the top 10.

11th place (60pts) Jenson Button
How the mighty have fallen, Jenson was the first ever bonus points champion in 2011 and things have just gone downhill - mostly due to the fact that the car is not very good, it has become so much of a struggle to make any progress with it. Yet Jenson, like Bianchi in many respects has made the most of the bad situation to secure some strong points finishes in what is quite a weak vehicle.

The top ten, for now

In a season full of tyre complaints and the least secret testing scandal, some drivers have actually don rather well this season and are currently in contention (mathematically Van Der Merwe in 40th place on 0.5pts could still take the title) for that all important accolade of being crowned the bonus points champion of 2013. That said, none of the previous winners have acknowledged their victory tweet at the end of the year, so maybe it isn't quite so important. Anyway, the top ten:

10th place (71pts) Mark Webber
Of all the seasons at Red Bull for the Australian, this one is going least to plan, the German bloke is winning all the time, and the only race Mark was on course to win... Vettel stole that too, so in this departing year things could be a little better. But some trickery behind the safety car in Germany carved one of the comeback drives of the season, so all is not quite lost and the decent down the table might yet be overturned.

9th place (71pts) Sebastien Vettel
Yes the little German has an unnecessary surplus of pace, and has spent races in utter dominant form, lapping so many people in Canada I was expecting blue flags - the chap has been a bit boring again - you don't get many points for being boring, some points for being ridiculously fast and destroying everyone. In the real world this is enough to build a sizeable championship lead, but in the bonus points things are a little different.

8th place (76pts) Fernando Alonso
Strangely, one of the most complete drivers on the grid has been a little inconsistent this season, and so has the Ferrari team as whole. I had to re-check the results to see if Fernando turned up to the race in Monaco, but more often than not Alonso is being Alonso - exceedingly fast but with great precision and accuracy in wheel to wheel combat, even if he is seeing a little less of it this year.

7th place (77.5pts) Felipe Massa
The 2012 bonus points champion has had a massively erratic year, so much so I've no idea where all these points have come from - from Monaco to Germany Massa was all over the place, crashing into things... the same things twice, spinning and being left behind in the races. But somehow has out-qualified Fernando from time to time leads the Spaniard by 1.5 bonus points, the 0.5 scored in the half points qualifying session in Australia.

6th place (81pts) Nico Rosberg
I, you and pretty much everyone else expected Mercedes to be nowhere this season, and even more of us expected Nico to be hammered by Lewis, but it hasn't happened quite like that. Aside from Vettel, Nico has won the most races this season, even though Monaco was won at the slowest possible speed. However the pace is falling away and some average races have cost Nico some valuable bonus points.

5th place (89pts) Lewis Hamilton
They said he was mad, yet the move is paying off especially considering where McLaren are, Hamilton had contributed to a string of Mercedes pole positions, because the car only likes to work on Saturdays, until Hungary that was when a win was added to the list. Consistently gaining performance out of the car where possible and remains rather fast.

4th place (97pts) Adrian Sutil
On a return from making no end of friends in a bar in China Sutil has had a strong return to the series, the early part of the season was blighted by bad luck, ran into by Gutierrez and Massa in China and Malaysia followed by pit problems and reliability. Yet the German lead a lot of the opening race of the season and has scored consistent points in what is a mid-field car - albeit the best mid-field car.

3rd place (109pts) Romain Grosjean
Romain has scored most of these points from being exciting and stringing together some excellent performances. Except Monaco where he crashed into everything and everyone. There is a lot of speed in the Lotus driver, scoring front row grid starts and almost challenging for the win in Germany had the safety car not caused some bother. Displayed some great racing this season - passing Massa on the outside in Hungary was marvellous even thought the powers that be thought it was illegal, just needs to cut down on hitting people. Leading the penalties championship is not an ideal accolade.

2nd place (111pts) Kimi Raikkonen
Almost took the 2012 title before losing it to Massa in the final race, Raikkonen is having another imperiously consistent season, always finishing, always in the points - a run almost cancelled by one of the collisions with Perez. Despite often starting down the order Raikkonen through tyre conservation and spectacular passing is racking up the podiums left right and centre... once, and is presently Vettel's closest challenger.

1st place (111pts) Paul Di Resta
The angry Scotsman who complains to the team about everything and constantly looks for a way out has been doing rather well despite a confusing demeanour. Paul has suffered a string of qualifying disasters but on each occasion (barring Hungary) has powered through the field and has passed more cars than anyone else this season. That is what the bonus points championship is all about, people who do exciting things, passing round the outside of St Devote is mental and then to do it twice, including on a Ferrari that is magnetically atraccted to crashing there sums up the season Di Resta has had. But the change in tyre construction has harmed team pace, so that championship lead is looking a little tenuous right now.