It has all come down to this, the previous 19 races filtered the competition down from 24 drivers who lined up in Australia before any points were scored, to leave only two in contention. Both are double champions and are only separated by 15 points with 25 available for the winner when the final chequered flag descends on Sunday Evening on paper those 15 points seem like an insurmountable target and there will only be one possible outcome from this weekend. It would take a monumental effort to overturn the odds in this final race, but having Sao Paulo as the playing field for the titanic battle adds a huge dose of unpredictability. Some of that could be released from the skies as the forecast suggests that there may be some climatic intervention - which could be fun, very fun indeed.
In other news the future of HRT seems even more doomed than the prospects of sitting on the back of the grid in a car which may occasionally fall apart on impact, or lose the ability to slow down for corners. Neither of which are something to write home about, but on the whole progress has been non-existent since the team arrived on the grid in 2010, on a rare occasion being able to out-qualify a struggling Marussia but that was about it. But turning up to the start of the past two opening races and being painfully slow hasn't helped prospects and now the team is up for sale. As if they've officially given up and want to pass the organisation onto somebody else, whoever that turns out to be is going to need a significant amount of funding to do anything with the squad. I've looked behind the sofa but not sure that 28p and a button will make the cut somehow.
Then we come to the drivers and there are all kinds of thoughts that several of them will be missing next season, and the problems seem to start at Caterham - where no-one is safe. A 12th place finish for Marussia in Singapore knocked the green team out of the coveted 10th place in the constructors championship. A top ten result comes with a significant amount of bonuses, so losing it has consequences mainly in the budget corner - a lack of team funding means Heikki could be binned. Elsewhere Kobayashi's seat is under pressure from the money Gutierrez has at his disposal from Mexico, and Senna could be replaced by Bottas their reserve driver. But all of this will start to fall into place once the season has reached it's conclusion over in Brazil.
The Track
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| Credit to the FIA for the map |
Sao Paulo is one of the shorter laps of the season with limited run-off in places, forming a compact, atmospheric stadium to host the ultimate finale, something that is always missing from these massive scale newer circuits. Despite having a more technical middle sector containing three sequential hairpins, the track flows from one corner to the next covering a lot of undulation in the process including the steep descent through the opening sequence of corners - the Senna S. In the wet however the combination of the compact layout and height changes causes significant complications, in the form of streams of water crossing the track. For example turn three is a simple acceleration zone in the dry, but when the rain fell in 2003 lots of cars span off into the barrier on the outside, including Schumacher and reigning bonus points champion Jenson Button.
Not much has changed since then, as with many tracks tarmac run-off has replaced some of the grass, but thankfully a grass border has been left at the side of the road to prevent people from gaining ground from running off course. One area that has seen some changes is the final climb from the exit of Juncao all the way to the finish line. Here there has only ever been a concrete wall on the exit of the quickest part of the lap, and in recent years local championships have seen some tragic accidents on that stretch of track. There have been plans to move the wall further back but that would require demolishing the grandstands and other residential buildings that are just behind it - which is a problem. This season the organisation running the track to take some inspiration from US oval racing where concrete walls are a constant threat - using something called the safer-barrier. The concept has been installed for NASCAR circuits for several years but has made its way here, it effectively adds a second layer of wall separated by compressible material that absorbs crash impacts. In America it has worked really well, so combined with barrier tech used in Monaco and Abu Dhabi (the stuff Rosberg ended up hitting in thr end of his flight) I think we'll be safe - even if a monsoon hits.
There is one more final entry to add to the list this weekend and that is the presentation of the final video of the season. Which is slightly sad, but these things happen to us all, and to make up for it we have a bonus point championship special, covering the eight remaining contenders for that all important title. Concluded by lots of driving into things and drawing some inspiration from a small animated sponge - it has everything. So here it is the video for the grand finale in Brazil, in full 1080p HD.
What to expect
Hopefully absolutely everything, madness, crazy nothing-to-lose moves and of course some very interesting weather. The forecasts indicate there is a lot of rain in the region the only question is when it will reach the track, and which sessions will be affected by the storms - now that is an exciting prospect for such an important weekend. However even though this race hosts the battle between Vettel and Alonso but it certainly won't be a single duel between the pair, because the McLaren drivers will be on the same pace along with the Lotus team to make things very interesting indeed.
Additionally because this is one of the shorter laps of the season the gaps between the teams in terms of lap time will be smaller, allowing the mid-grid teams to get in on the action. Meaning that Sauber, Force India and Williams could be in for a very strong season finale capitalising on any contact and mistakes closer to the front. I wouldn't rule out a Toro Rosso for some major points either, the potential for this race to be completely mad is quite hight, especially if the predicted storms do set in a cause all kinds of mayhem.
It is this sort of race which those teams lurking at the back hope for, as it is in uncertain conditions where finishing further up the grid is much more likely than it is on an ordinary dry weekend on a long Tilke track. Although I don't think that even an impossible 1-2 finish for the HRT team will not be enough to rescue their dwindling hopes of making the grid in 2013. Even if they do turn up in Australia making the actual start is just as unlikely. But it is more important to the Caterham team looking to take the 10th place in the constructors championship away from Marussia, and the only way to do that would be finish ahead of any other cars in the division and vitally in 12th or above, which is where the rain might have to come into play.
The blog predictions
This is the final installation of the predictive phase of the post and something that probably won't make it back on to the schedule next season by virtue of being not being constructive to the content of the site at all. So for the last outing here we go...
- Alonso
- Hamilton
- Vettel
- Massa
- Raikkonen
- Webber
- Button
- Hulkenberg
- Senna
- Grosjean
Qualifying
- Red Bull - Vettel
- Ferrari - Alonso
- McLaren - Hamilton
- Lotus - Raikkonen
- Mercedes - Schumacher
- Sauber - Perez
- Force India - Hulkenberg
- Williams - Maldonado
- Toro Rosso - Vergne
- Caterham - Kovalainen
- Marussia - Glock
- HRT - De La Rosa
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