Round 12: Italy 2013 - Review

Greetings Internet,

I am starting to think that rain is forbidden on a Sunday afternoon, on each occasion it has been threatened the skies remain clear and the track remains dry. If we were to stage a race at the bottom of the pacific ocean, the seas would part to leave a track as parched as the surface of the Attacama. Much like the situation was in Spa events managed to unfold such that the majority of the race became a foregone conclusion - the two participants mostly out of position encountered early difficulties removing them from the equation and stifling the prospect of a race long charge through the field. Furthermore this race saw some glaring disparity in the effectiveness of DRS from car to car, it was either completely useless or monstrously overpowered. We also learned that you need the straight line speed of a scalded cheetah to get anywhere close to passing a Toro Rosso around Monza, yet they themselves don't have the pace to catch the cars in front of them. I've no idea what on earth has been going on at the famous autodromo but all of the series have been a little...off. GP3 driving has been a little silly, and it flows from one extreme to the other in GP2 - four corners of intense racing followed by several laps of roughly sod all going on. At least the F1 race was a little more consistent, and ramped up towards the end - but once more that top step of the podium may as well have been booked and set in advance. Maybe next time things will be different, room for madness on those streets.

The Race

Hopes were momentarily raised when the pit-lane seemed a little damp in the build up to the race, and rain was present in the air, still falling albeit lightly - helped a little with the fact that cars were heading to the grid on intermediate tyres. A hope that as per usual faded into the familiar sense of disappointment, because the rain came to an abrupt end, the clouds rolled away, and the track was completely dry with plenty of time before the start of the race.

Off the line it was unsurprisingly the two Ferraris that made the most ground, sweeping past Hulkenberg like he didn't exist. Massa also managed to slip past Webber, and it almost seemed like he defended from Alonso - if that was the case he'd probably be shown the door for not jumping out of the way. Despite being all alone in the lead on the really long run down to the first corner, Vettel locked up and flat-spotted his front tyre. Although the entire wheel could have fallen off and the car would still be the fastest thing around. Further back Kimi Raikkonen found himself behind Perez, and given the amount of altercations they've had this season Kimi thought it best to nudge the Mexican down the escape road - unfortunately it ruined the Lotus front wing in the process dropping him to the back of the grid. But on the whole it was a unusually damage free run through the first chicane. So that was made up for in the braking zone of the Della Roggia chicane, as Di Resta clobbered into the back of Grosjean. Romain could continue, but Paul was missing a front wheel and was forced to retire.

Vettel was clear off in the lead, and as per usual was never seen again, Massa was second while Webber held of Alonso for third. Hulkenberg still existed but had Rosberg for company in summary of how this race was to play out through the remainder of the race, only one position changed in the top six from now until the end of the race...But if we just looked at that then the race would seem dull, uneventful perhaps - yet everyone else seemed to be having fun. A train of cars behind Vergne including a recovering Hamilton was initially quite excitable, Lewis passing Gutierrez in the second chicane. That backed the Sauber up into the Williams team who in turn were almost passed by Pic in the Caterham. Perez was having the same trouble trying to pass the other Toro Rosso of Ricciardo - whilst being caught be Grosjean. Both these groups were able to duel amongst themselves but had nothing for the Toro Rosso roadblocks.

As soon as the DRS window opened Hamilton breezed past Jenson as if he didn't exist before the Ascari chicane - because the McLaren team had got the gear ratios wrong and were defenceless. Further forward Alonso made a move round the outside of Webber in the second chicane easing across on the racing line on the exit of the corner. Once again Mark found himself without a front wing endplate - this time didn't lead to a subsequent barrage of fastest laps, only Van Der Garde has the ability to improve Adrian Newey's handiwork. Hamilton's charge was about to encounter a bit of a problem, starting with a complete failure of his in-car communication system which meant he couldn't hear the team inform him of a slow puncture developing on that Mercedes. This allowed Button to recover the gap and then retake the place on the outside of the Roggia chicane - interesting to see more passing away from the DRS zone. Except for Massa moving out of the the way for Fernando - but that was an inevitable team manoeuvre - there was no way at all Massa would have been allowed to keep that place...Now would Kimi be so co-operative.

Vergne may have lost Hamilton after the Mercedes finally recognised the problem via the almost archaic system of using a pit-board and pitted - only to rejoin behind Raikkonen - but the Frenchman gained Jenson Button staring at his gearbox. However there was nothing Jenson could do the Toro Rosso was far too fast in a straight line - until it broke down before the first of the Lesmos, narrowly missed by the McLaren as Vergne pulled it out of the way.  Grosjean and Perez on the other hand, were still struggling to make any ground on Ricciardo allowing Button to work his way up to the back of that particular train of cars.

While nothing else was going on, it was time for the pit-stops - and this being a one stop race the strategy was slightly less relevant making it less of a tactical event - just a case of running the tyres until they were done, swap the other set on and then go to the end. Of course that process changed for Raikkonen and Hamilton who were forced into an early stop. Red Bull once more illustrated their dominance by stopping both their cars on the same lap, with immaculate consistency 2.6 and 2.7s for Vettel and Webber respectively - servicing both cars within 10 seconds... This turn around was enough to move Webber in front of Massa and much closer to Alonso in the other Ferrari. Everyone else retained position, in relative terms as late stopping cars were temporarily out of position - Raikkonen was back up to 5th after being last on the opening lap. The two McLarens found themselves back behind Ricciardo after the stops but Jenson had made it through past Perez, without the need to knock carbon fibre off each other.

Speaking of intra-team battles Mercedes ran two wide through the opening chicane with Hamilton taking the position. Lewis then caught up immediately to Hulkenberg and almost performed an identical pass on the Sauber, but not being team-mates he was able to defend more robustly but Hamilton used all his KERs to go round the outside through Curva Grande. Nico and Nico then resumed the battle they'd been in since the start of the race, but lost a lot of ground by missing the first chicane and having to meander through the maze of polystyrene marker boards. Hamilton was told to pit - but proceeded to set the fastest lap instead, some more communication issues going on there, eventually Mercedes were able to apprehend Lewis to give him some new tyres.

In the final phase of the race we were set for another battle towards the front as Webber was right behind Alonso and was clearly in a much faster car - considering the Red Bull is realistically faster than everything. But the team came on the radio once more to the Australian to say something was wrong with the car, this time it was the gearbox. In order to get the car home he had to short shift in the traction zones - losing ground out of the chicanes on the Ferrari and ending that battle. Instead we turned to Raikkonen and Hamilton on a two stop strategy and much fresher tyres fighting back from outside the points. Kimi was making considerable progress - first picking off Gutierrez and then Sutil in very quick succession closing rapidly on the McLaren pairing of Perez and Button. But once again just as things were going to get interesting Lotus informed Raikkonen that his KERs was malfunctioning ending that battle. This allowed Hamilton to use his KERs once more in Curva Grande to take the place. Further forward the potential for Massa to come after an ailing Webber for 3rd came to nothing as Felipe was struck down with KERs problems of his own. Was anyone allowed to to battle today.

Vettel won the race a country mile ahead of every one else, even he had slowed down through his own gearbox issues, Alonso scored another podium for Ferrari at their home race, which the tifosi were quite pleased about. Webber was locked into third by his technical difficulties and safe from Massa and his technical difficulties - Mark parked the car at the end of the pit-lane. Not sure if that was wise with the post-race track invasion, Fisichella parked a Benetton on the the front straight several years ago and the fans stripped it like a crowd of angry vultures. Aside from the Ferrari/Red Bull contingent - the two Nicos finished in the same places they ended the first lap in, Hulkenberg doing well to score a top five place ahead of Rosberg. Ricciardo proved to be completely unpassable, and so did the other Toro Rosso for the brief time it was running. Grosjean was the only Lotus to score points in 8th position and one of the few drivers to make up a few places today despite barely been spotted on Camera. Hamilton was able to use the DRS advantage to defeat both McLarens in the dying laps to score a couple of points while Jenson held onto the final point ahead of Raikkonen in 11th. Kimi incidently went from being the closest rival to Vettel, to being out of the hunt in two races losing 50 points to the German Bloke...2013 does look even more inevitable as it progresses.

The Bonus Points Championship points winners

There are some races where it is difficult to decide where to assign the bonus points with so many different stories developing throughout the field - this is not one of those races, the majority of the grid circulated in roughly the same positions they started in. So many battles were taken away through excessive DRS or ineffective gear ratios making overtaking impossible, others were ruined through technical dramas. Of all the races of the season this one promised so much, so often and then each time crushed that potential out of existence. But points must be assigned to someone, 10 someones in fact, so here goes.

• 25pts - Nico Hulkenberg - Had to take the top score, beating Mercedes, McLaren and Lotus in this years Sauber which is a shadow of it's former self
• 18pts - Lewis Hamilton - Despite being massively grumpy, that was strong damage limitation driving today
• 15pts - Fernando Alonso - Still the only car able to come within a million miles of Vettel
• 12pts - Mark Webber - A broken front wing, a ruined gearbox and still gave Alonso a run for his money
• 10pts - Felipe Massa - Driving well to try and retain that drive for the coming season
• 8pts - Red Bull - Two completed pit stops within around 10s seconds... needs points
• 6pts - Toro Rosso - For creating a car that cannot be passed, endorsed by Gandalf I'd imagine
• 4pts - Sebastien Vettel - Fine the German Bloke can have some points
• 2pts - Charles Pic - Wins the lower division
• 1pt - Adderly Fong - Wins the high jump award for Monza for a massive wheelie in turn one during the GP3 race

Looking forward to Singapore

If there is one track of the season that doesn't need any rain to make things interesting it is the twilight streets of Singapore lots of inviting walls and movable barriers to for Maldonado make a fort out of. Pastor managed to fail to notice the same barriers between the Lesmos and no forts were built. The Marina Bay circuit has been a polarising venue among fans and supporters of the track, because it is seen as novelty addition which doesn't really add anything to the season. But here at Blog HQ it is met with great approval, it is a different type of street circuit to Monaco, almost making the comparison very limited, the roads are wider, the straights are actually straight and overtaking is possible. There are no health and safety run-off areas, and the slightest error leads to a concrete wall and some missing wheels.

Leaving the fastest circuit and the shortest race of the season and heading to the longest most draining event always pushing the two hour limit and frequently attracts the presence of the Safety car. However this time Schumacher isn't on the grid, and he was responsible for some of those safety cars for assaulting Saubers, and then Vergne's Toro Rosso because it was in the vicinity of a Sauber. So potentially this time things might be a little less destructive, either way we might go to Singapore and something might happen, and Vettel might not be impossibly fast...well we can dream.

Round 12: Italy 2013 - Qualifying

Greetings Internet,

Monza may not have brought about the rain fuelled extraordinary events of Spa, but that turned out to be a very intense session indeed, and there have been some very displeased remarks at the sharpest end of the field. You'd think that qualifying at Monza, whilst being a little tighter on times than other circuits, should be a very routine sequence of events, well apparently not. This weekend also brought some rather disconcerting news from Sauber, claiming they will do their damnest to get Sirotkin in the car, who has only recently turned 18. This plan only works out if Hulkenberg finds somewhere else to go in 2014 which in turn has a lot to do with what happens over at Ferrari. After the goings on today things on home turf for the Italian outfit may be even more unsettled than usual, where no-one is particularly safe.

Onto qualifying today, and all that mentioning of predicted form can be thoroughly thrown out of the window a world where Mercedes should be fighting for pole position and Lotus should be doing battle with Ferrari didn't make it in the shipment over from Belgium. It can also be assumed that any reservations and restraints drivers had about their comments was left behind with them - open the door for some brutal honesty and transparency, which frankly is a good thing. We live an age where every interview and comment appears to be constricted a generic template - the jury is still out on Alonso's comments about the team, but Hamilton was more than clear on his opinions, no templates involved there. But the only template that remained was at the very front of the grid, another display of domination and if there are no rain interventions in the race I can foresee yet another disappearing act from a certain German Bloke

Q1

As a very mafia-esque array of personalities lined up at the back of the Ferrari garage, Gutierrez and Rosberg took to the track - Nico looking to make up for lost time after missing most of FP3 with technical difficulties. Of the pair, oddly it was Gutierrez who set the fastest time, while Ferrari left the garage in formation using Massa to tow Alonso round in the slipstream. Something that Ferrari always get up to here at Monza, and it was a strategy that seemed to work as Fernando went fastest. But this is where the form guide starts to fall apart, because of all the teams to mount the first challenge Toro Rosso aren't usually mentioned, but Vergne was able to put the car at the top of the timings - that team performance was followed up by Ricciardo putting the car third.

With half of the session gone, we still hadn't seen anything of Vettel as those on track where sharing the responbility of sitting in third place, first Hamilton took it away from Ricciardo and then Button took it from his former team-mate. Jenson was only 0.15s away from Vernges time but was enough of a gap for Vettel to fit his Red Bull in, to claim his turn in third place. Down in the relegation zone it was very competitve between the Force Indias, Williams and Gutierrez because Toro Rosso were plying their trade a little further up the grid. One by one the Force India team pulled themselves out of the relegation zone, demoting Gutierrez and Bottas neither of which could recover and make it into Q2. It seemed like the battle for pole was going to be measured in the tiniest fractions of tenths and hundredths... until Vettel rocked up and found over a quarter of a second to end the session a long way out front...again.

Q2

Toro Rosso were the first to leave the garage this time around, but Ferrari once more in the drafting formation were not too far behind - again using Massa as Fernando's little helper for the afternoon. If Kimi takes that place I doubt he will conform to the role of helping the Spaniard out quite so well. Thing were starting to get a little ragged, Vergne powersliding out of the Della Roggia chicane putting a wheel in the gravel, while Grosjean took to the air jumping across the speed bumps in the middle of the Rettifillio chicane. But to top things off Hamilton had a more dramatic excursion running off wide on the exit of the Parabolica but Lewis was able to keep the Mercedes from bouncing off the barrier. However the car must have taken some damage from bouncing across the gravel as he was in pit-lane for a while.

At the front Alonso benefiting from the draft was fastest just ahead of Ricciardo but Webber was still able to split the pair - only thousandths from taking the top spot, the only thing this recepie was missing was a increasingly blonde German in a really fast car. True to form that German Bloke inevitably went fastest... rapidly turning into an exercise of even more domination, give the chap a wheelie bin to compete in and he'd still go fastest. No wonder the team came on the radio to say he was quick enough.

When the chequered flag came out the order got weird, firstly the two Lotus cars had no pace and fell down the standings, while the Toro Rosso's remained competitive inside the top five, making it four Red Bull backed cars in that top five...Then there was Hamilton trying to recover from his earlier incident, but everyone was trying to make it through meaning traffic was quite the problem... most significantly Adrian Sutil his most bestest of friends, but even on the lap before Lewis wasn't fast enough and dropped out of Q2 allowing Nico Hulkenberg so sneak into the top ten.

Q3

In the first series of runs only half of those remaining elected to set a time, of the group it was Webber who took the initial lead. Ferrari circulated around in the same formation flying approach they'd been throwing at qualifying all day. It is odd that no other team were up for drafting their cars off one another, but of all the teams on the grid it would Ferrari the most likely to sacrifice one drivers pace to support the other. But the plan was not working out as neither car could come close to the Red Bull, unless it was another Red Bull driven by that German again - and Vettel virtually sauntered his way to the front.

One stop for some new tyres later and everyone was taking to the track for that last challenge to find out who was going to be second on the grid. Once again Ferrari were in formation but Fernando was not happy - complaining initially on the radio that Felipe was too fast to be helpful. A statement steeped in irony after the infamous 'Fernando is faster than you' comment in Hockkenheim a while back, but Alonso was not done with ranting at the team. Depending on what the exact translation is Alonso either called his team 'idiots' or sarcastically called their strategy 'genius'. Either way Massa out-qualified a very angry team-mate and neither of them made it onto the front row which has an all Red Bull affair. Then something magical happened, as the drivers were completing their final runs, and Webber closed fractionally on an all dominant Vettel crossing the line through a cloud of dust from Vergne's powerslide through the gravel in the final turn, the Ferrari second row lockout was ruined. It wasn't a McLaren or Rosberg's remaining Mercedes but Nico Hulkenberg in a Sauber putting the car third... not a Q1 or Q2 3rd but out and out overall top end of the grid 3rd...

The Bonus Points Championship Points Winners 

On a day where Hamilton described his own driving as idiotic, Alonso might have claimed that his team were idiotic and some of the driving in the GP3 was idiotic, but less so than it has been in other events, the points have to go somewhere. These are the results of the first part of the Italian GP weekend.

• 10pts - Nico Hulkenberg - Where on earth did that come from, outstanding
• 8pts - Felipe Massa - For being too fast, it made Alonso unhappy 
• 6pts - Jean-Eric Vergne - For being so fast in Q1, and somehow not planting that in the wall at the end of Q3
• 5pts - Daniel Ricciardo - Emulating what Vergne did in Q1 in Q2 mixing with th top teams
• 4pts - Lewis Hamilton - Also for not putting it in the wall in the Parabolica, but for coming forward in the interview and not blaming everyone in sight. See Di Resta it is possible
• 3pts - Van Der Garde - Once more leading the bottom division 
• 2pts - Romain Grosjean - Two style points for the micro flight in turn one
• 1pt - Fernando Alonso - Couldn't have timed his rant better, with every influential person in the Ferrari team sitting in the garage including Mr Montezemelo himself waiting on the pitwall

The Penalty Points Championship

Only one penalty was added to the records following today's session:

• Adrian Sutil - three place grid penalty - For holding up Hamilton in the Parabolica 

Looking to Tomorrow 

We've been enticed by the prospect of rain before, it was only last race where potential showers were the projected highlight of the race, and then they never materialised, so I will not be getting my hopes up for some rain induced mayhem and carnage. But Monza is a track where overtaking and racing is possible in the dry, even if the DRS system will make some of those passes a complete formality - why on earth DRS is needed on the fastest straight in the whole season is beyond me. 

In either condition it is entirely forseable that Vettel will vanish a long way into the distance and will never be seen of again - if Webber gets off the line he'll probably go along with him. The intrigue lies with everyone else, with Hulkenberg leading a potentially angry Ferrari team into the first corner could be very interesting. On top of that outside the top ten we have cars a long way out of position including an also quite displeased Hamilton and both of the Lotus cars. Competition for the last place on the podium on downwards is going to be very intense and makes for a potentially very entertaining afternoon. So until then this is farewell from Blog HQ

Round 12: Italy 2013 - Preview

Greetings Internet,

So this is the end of the European season, the final race before the season vanishes off into the exotic realms of Asia, the Americas and the Middle East - none of which are quite so fond of the questionable cuisine of chips and mayonnaise the Belgians were all for last time around. Not only does this final visit to the continent frequent the fastest track on the calendar a legacy of the high speed traditions of the sport, but Italy does great pizza. However in the dark realm of BlogHQ there is neither pizza, mayonnaise or high speeds if this internet connection is anything to go by, but there is another prospect for a spectacular weekend in the immediate future to make up for all that.

In the interlude between Spa and this race one of the more significant pieces of the the driver market fell into place, as Red Bull came out and announced exactly what the entire world had suspected for a considerable amount of time. That Webber's vacant position within the team would be filled by that Australian with a disturbingly positive demeanour - Daniel Ricciardo, I sense that his disposition will be even more overjoyed than normal this weekend, might have to sedate him just to take the edge off a little. Meanwhile the world is still waiting on the other major decision down at Ferrari, and the team have made a special announcement announcing that they will not announce any decisions on the line-up for 2014... which makes total and utter sense...

In other news an estimation of the 2014 calendar has been released, totalling a record 21 races, stretching almost into December. The V8 Supercar race at the Telstra Sydney 500 is becoming in danger of not being the last decent race of the year at this rate. But ideally given time and other potential unforeseen circumstances - there should be an upcoming feature on the new calendar and the new and returning circuits that we are all looking forward to next year. But on the subject of tracks, time to take a look at the one that the teams are setting up in at the moment.

The Track

It could be considered that this is the simplest of layouts on the calendar, effectively consisting of four corners, three chicanes all connected by reasonably high speed straights, combining to make this the fastest of all the venues. This of course then means that this is conventionally the shortest race of the season due to the higher average speeds, without a safety car intervention that is - which can't quite be ruled out.

Turn one - the Rettafillio chicane has gone through several iterations, at one point it was two chicanes one after another, the second of which turned out not be Hakkinen's friend after he thought it had cost him the 1999 championship. Incidentally this is potentially the only recorded event of a Finn exhibiting anything other than a flat, monotone demeanour. It's present incarnation is a little tight and merely attracts mayhem and collisions, it is a corner where front wings go to die. Additionally the curbing is mountainous, you need a sherpa to make to the peak of the apex, but without them everyone would just cut the corners.

Curva Grande at turn three has been the scene of some spectacular overtaking manoeuvres, generally involving Vettel and Alonso - the 2012 duel was outstanding where the German Bloke passed the Ferrari on the grass. In this current day and age, Vettel would probably been penalised for such an achievement. At the far end of the track the two Lesmos are flowing and gently cambered allowing the slowest (non-chicane) corners to be that little bit faster also with none of that health and safety tarmac run-off on the exits either, just grass, gravel and then the wall. After the first of the two back straights - Monza likes straights - lies the Ascari chicane out of the three on the lap, this is by far the best. The site of where Raikkonen ruined a Ferrari before he fell out with Montezemelo - it has also been the scene of many an epic powerslide between the second and third parts of the corner.

The final part of the lap is the long, increasing radius corner at the Parabolica building speed back up onto the front straight - where in the past two lanes of racing traffic would run side by side as the banking loop switched over with the course we know of today. For some reason the completely insane and incredibly steep banked corners are no longer in use - might have something to do with a severe threat of severe injury and the lack of catch fencing to prevent cars from flying into the forest - so on balance the current layout is pretty brilliant as is.

The Form Guide

Being a very unique track certain cars will be better suited to the high speed, lower downforce configuration than others - for example Red Bull are conventionally better suited to higher downforce venues. Tracks like Silverstone, Suzuka and Interlagos come to mind - but not Monza, however Vettel was able to destroy the field at Spa, another high speed track. Meanwhile Mercedes are usually tipped to do well in these sort of tracks but couldn't keep close to Alonso and Vettel. As usual Mercedes will be very close to the front on Saturday but lose a little on race day, because this is now autumn here in Europe temperatures may not be high enough for Lotus to retain the form they held earlier in the year. While a low downforce track might help McLaren close the gap.

Times are often quite close at Monza, which makes the far end of the top ten very interesting, Force India will certainly at the front of the Mid-field train, looking to pick of a McLaren or Lotus or two along the way. To which Di Resta may well complain, because he does like to complain from time to time. Toro Rosso might be next because in the speed traps they tend to rank fairly highly, of course that doesn't take into account the extra drag caused by the extra large cheesy grin Ricciardo will be wearing this weekend. This leaves Sauber and Williams - likely in that order, well more likely Hulkenberg, Williams and then Gutierrez - although Esteban had a decent race in Spa so might be alright at Monza.

Caterham and Marussia had an amazing qualifying session in Spa, guessing the conditions brilliantly, but in out and out pace they are solidly at the back. Caterham are starting to leave Marussia behind, and Van Der Garde is making considerable improvements - going from battling Chilton for the great honour that is last place, to leading the division beating Pic and Bianchi. Jules initial domination of the class has faded slightly along with the pace of the car, although in relative terms for the most part is still keeping Max well beaten.

Just like in Spa there is the risk of rain during the weekend, a certain wet Monza GP in 2008 saw a certain German Bloke win in the Toro Rosso, which at the time was just as far off the pace as it is now. So as much as a rain affected race always sounds like a good idea, in Italy it does have a history of encouraging Vettel based dominance, and we have had quite a lot of that at the moment so something else might be nice, until next time this is farewell from BlogHQ.

The Increasingly Sillier Silly-Season

Greetings Internet,

Well it is around this time of the year where everyone is trying to secure a drive for the coming season, preferably in a car which is a little faster or more reliable than the one they are currently sitting in... or any car at all. It traditionally only takes one high profile change to start a chain reaction, last season it was Schumacher retiring... again, and Hamilton moving across to fill the seat. Down at the other end of the grid it is more often the case that drivers will be bumped off the grid by a large incoming pile of money - which is why we have Chilton and Gutierrez instead of Glock and Kobayashi, the issues at Sauber and Williams indicate that the need for money vs speed is slowly edging it's way toward the front. There is the slight insinuation that money is why Perez ended up at McLaren, but that is a borderline case as the Mexican is actually decent at what he does - but the call of why not Hulkenberg, or why not Di Resta will likely not go away until that car is up to scratch.

This season's catalyst is obviously Webber leaving to drive Porsche's new LMP1 car, and probably flip it given his record in Le Mans cars and the Mercedes CLK-GTR that spent a lot of time in the air. So I thought it would be a good idea, for Blog HQ to look at the options and have a rough guess at who will be where in 2014, the new era of small turbo-charged V6's and more KERs power.

The Top Division

Conventionally the most stable part of the grid, a realm of big money, big sponsors and much bigger expectations. In theory teams up at this end should be looking to maximise their driver line up to compete for wins and constructor points on both sides of the garage. However that can backfire - the most recent example being the McLaren 2007 pairing of Hamilton and Alonso, two of the quickest drivers managed to lose the title to Raikkonen by annoying each other. Not that Raikkonen cared, and almost unleashed the Kimi happy face.

Red Bull

Firstly Vettel is going nowhere, it would make sense to keep the German Bloke in situ - the combination has worked out rather well so far, constantly showing dominant pace in a car which is at times impossibly quick - three straight titles do not happen by accident. Yet there is an open space in the opposite garage bay, vacated by Webber. The general idea is that Torro Rosso's Ricciardo will move in, making it two drivers in the team that have come through the development ranks into the lead team. More importantly as a developing driver it might mean that Mr Vettel might get his own way more often, and the very top of the organisation might be more receptive of that option.

But... rumours and theories are that Kimi is in the running for that position, which would be a formidable pairing, frighteningly so, but could that result in conflict, because of anyone Kimi isn't too fond of playing the 'company game' and won't bow down to Vettel. Which is why he and Ferrari had a falling out in 2009.

2014 Estimation: Vettel and Ricciardo

Ferrari

It is very unclear what the future holds for Ferrari - it would make sense to hold onto Alonso, but he and the boss - Luca Di Montezemelo have not been the best of friends of late after Fernando criticised the car. The last time Luca was displeased Kimi found himself in a rally car the following season. However there are no real better options for Fernando, and if sense prevails Ferrari will keep the Spaniard.

Then there is Massa, who has been the very picture of inconsistency, which once more starts rumours about his future - a little sense of deja vu to 2012 - those rumours suddenly brought about a miraculous change and Massa was very strong in the final part of the year. Strong enough to take the bonus points title. But can he survive this season, for consistency he should be retained, but for a title challenge in the constructors... the position looks tentative.

So who could replace Massa, well the name being passed back and forth is Hulkenberg, which would be a very good move for the German considering how disappointing Sauber have been - and potentially Nico is a faster driver than Felipe. Importantly Hulkenberg wouldn't threaten Ferrari's default No.1 and No.2 driver policy. Also Raikkonen's name is being put forward with Ferrari as well, Kimi and Alonso is another devastatingly powerful line up but not something Ferrari does. If Raikkonen goes there it will be a straight swap with Alonso to Lotus.

2014 Estimation: Alonso and Massa

Mercedes

Of all the front running teams, Mercedes don't look set to make any changes, they went through that last time when Schumacher left, much to the elation of Sauber, because Schumacher tended to like crashing into them. If it wasn't for Perez being to the inside of Vergne - Michael would have crafted a 100% of assaulting Saubers in Singapore. So Mercedes get to sit back and watch everyone fight over drivers and throwing money around without needing to get involved.

2014 Estimation: Hamilton and Rosberg

Lotus

What happens at Lotus pretty much depends on what Raikkonen does and where he ends up - which may just be a case of who has the best ice cream fridge given how much the Finn does like some ice cream. I reckon that if Lotus can hold on to Raikkonen then I can only assume they will, so far Kimi has been connected with almost everyone in the top half of the grid. If he does head off somewhere then where do they look for a replacement, possibly Valselcchi the GP2 champion, or bring back Petrov or Bruno Senna. Then there is the option of bringing someone forward - hiring Bianchi might appeal to Renault.

Then there is what do we do with Grosjean - he is more than enough pace to stay on with the team, but brings with that a large repair bill from running into everyone and making contact with roughly every barrier in Monaco. But if Raikkonen does leave, than Romain should be retained for consistency. Overall the Raikkonen rumours may just be that, and therefore the line-up will remain unchanged.

2014 Estimation: Raikkonen and Grosjean

McLaren

Despite being at the bottom of the first division McLaren can still be considered as a top team, and both drivers should be safe. However as soon as all this driver discussion started to rear it's head, it was very promptly noted that Jenson does not have a 2014 contract at the team - Button himself has indicated his loyalty to the team every time it is brought up, but also put in a lot of praise for Ferrari, who might have an opening. In the end I don't see Jenson going anywhere this is a good place for him to be if the car gets better that is.

As for Perez, well this is an opening season in a big team with a car that is a million miles off the pace it should be running at. Therefore it would be unfair to boot the Mexican out of the team, because Sergio has been doing a decent job, and has been a match for Jenson at times. But surprise, surprise the only driver that has been linked to taking away one of the seats at the team is Raikkonen, but he's been linked to everyone since Lotus have been working with financial issues.

2014 Estimation: Button and Perez

The Mid-Field

This is where the money starts to take over an influence driver selection and hiring, as usual teams would like to select drivers on ability and pace alone, but that is often no economically viable. But despite that there are teams with greater financial security, and support from bigger friends further up the grid. So the blog investigates where this part of the grid will end up.

Force India

Of all the teams in this part of the grid Force India have been making considerable strides through the field and into the top ten, a world away from their début in 2008 - with Sutil and Fisichella. On the evidence of how the season has been for the team, it would make no sense to change the pairing unless one of the current drivers is called for duties elsewhere. Because that is rather unlikely I see Force India starting 2014 with the same two drivers, despite the amount of whining that Di Resta gets up to.

Sauber

One of the most interesting teams moving into the new season is Sauber, because they are fishing around for that little extra money, which lead them to Russia - which is where the Sirotkin rumour comes into play. Sergey is effectively a child but because of the money involve could find himself on the grid in 2014 - he has already had a seat fitting at the team, but should spend a season only doing free practices before actually being in a race seat. The same principle brought Gutierrez into the team, and he has been a little erratic at best some good weekends but more not so good ones - and it is the same volume of money that could keep the Mexican in place.

Hulkenberg however might be moving on, if Massa is given the boot, and therefore would open the door for another driver to join the team. If this is the case Sirotkin could be fast-tracked into place, which is a risky option - or Sauber's Ferrari connections could see Bianchi adopted. I reckon if a gap opens up somewhere in the middle of the park, then Bianchi would be a decent fit anywhere. Otherwise Sauber might have to look at who has the biggest bank balance if their points scoring threat moves on to bigger and better things.

2014 Estimation: Gutierrez and Hulkenberg

Torro Rosso

With Ricciardo inevitably moving on to Red Bull, one seat will likely open up, but Torro Rosso have a habit of disposing of perfectly good drivers, the likes of Buemi, Alguersuari and even multiple champ-car champion Sebastian Bourdais were shown the door. So no-one is ever truly safe in Red Bull's development program, Vergne's time may be coming to an end as rumours start to circulate about who will replace Ricciardo. It is a list from which Torro Rosso might not just select a single candidate.

Martin Brundle suggested that Felix Da Costa from the World Series by Renault might be making the step up, while German reporters have claimed that Felipe Nasr (yes that will make things immensely confusing) will join the team. On top of that there is the option that former Red Bull supported Canadian Robert Wickens, currently hiding out in DTM might be up for a drive. This is the problem with a very busy development program, there are more drivers going in then there are places to put them all. The likes of Neel Jani, Micheal Ammermuller and Robert Doornbos were all in the program and only scored one practice drive among them. Even then Robert displeased Alonso in his single stint in the Red Bull car in Hungary many years ago.

2014 Estimation: Felipe Nasr and Felix Da Costa

Williams 

Like Force India, things at Willams are likely to remain fairly stable, Maldonado is safe because of the influx of money he brings with him from Venezuela - which is clearly enough money to cover an every growing list of repairs from assaulting other teams. Yet despite ramming the entire Force India team in Belgium, Pastor's car could still finish the race, perhaps Maldonado can bring in some commission from his fort building empire he started in Monaco. There are some similar barriers in Singapore if he wants to develop new fort designs. Bottas is a developing driver and is a strong prospect for the future, and if Williams have a car that could score points then Bottas would be a good talent to keep around until such time he gets poached by someone further up the grid.

The Bottom Tier

Here the driver turnover is more significant, 75% of the seats this year are held by rookie drivers, and the most experienced driver has only completed one season, in world which is not only influenced by highly backed drivers, but dominated by it. If we look at Chilton for example, he and his sponsors have funded positions at top teams all through the development steps en route to F1. But is it also a hunting ground for bigger teams to spot new talented drivers coming from the lower formulae, for example Alonso made his debut for back row team Minardi in 2001, and Webber started in the same team in 2002 and look where they are now.

Caterham

Firstly Pic already has a solid contract for the upcoming season, so his position is safe for the time being at the team which only calls into question whether Van Der Garde will be replaced. Giedo came onto the grid under the air of bad feeling that hangs around 'pay drivers' but over the course of the season the Dutchman has been increasingly impressive. A strong race at Hungary was backed up after the summer break with a very good race at Spa, which should make his position more secure coming into the coming year.

But, Caterham also have an extensive development program, in GP2 there is Sergio Canamassas who would be the definition of a surprise signing... and having him and Maldonado, Perez, Grosjean and Gutierrez would turn the sport into a demolition derby event. However Sergio's team-mate in the Caterham junior team is Alex Rossi who would be a much stronger selection. If a change is to come at Caterham with regards to Van Der Garde, Rossi would take that seat.

2014 Estimation: Pic and Van Der Garde

Marussia

Marussia may have started the season well, with Bianchi being the immediate surprise of the season out performing what the pace of the car should be, but since then Caterham caught and passed them on pace, but Marussia still hold onto that important 10th place in the constructors championship. Bianchi we assume will be picked up by someone if a gap opens up elsewhere, and therefore there is potentially one seat opening up at the team. They also have a junior team, because underneath the layers of ownership and sponsors the team is effectively Manor competition with a heritage in junior formula racing. In that team there is a quick New Zealander named Mitch Evans who has had some strong showings in the class.

But then there is money, and without knowing all the financial details of the drivers involved but something tells me that Venezuelan Johnny Cecotto Jr may have a bigger bank account. If adding Canamassas to the roster was a recipe for destruction, Cecotto would be apocalyptic - but on the plus side he will be in a Marussia so the likelihood of him being close enough to anyone to run into is limited. That said Chilton managed to force Maldonado into his fort building exercise routine, and Cecotto is not slow by any means, just a little aggressive, and takes things a little too far at times. Cecotto has even managed to make it onto the penalty points table for trying to push Sam Bird into a different time zone during qualifying for the GP2 race at Malaysia. In the end Chilton may stay but Bianchi may need replacing.

2014 Estimation: Chilton and Cecotto... be very afraid



These estimations can change very quickly based on a couple of key announcements we are all waiting on, including on where Kimi ends up and whether Massa gets to stay, because that will move Hulkenberg and in turn potentially makes a opening for Bianchi. So things are very tentative right now, the picture should become slightly clearer from one weekend to the next, that is of course if new rumours don't circulate... and what are the chances of that. It is worth noting that Monza is next, Ferrari HQ as it were so perhaps clarity on Massa and the team might be more forthcoming on home soil.

Round 11: Belgium 2013 - Review

Greetings Internet,

First off, before we cover the events of the day I have to ask where on earth was all this rain that was predicted for the race - after all the fun it caused yesterday everyone here... well me, as blog HQ is merely a corner of the sofa, was really looking forward to the prospect of a wet race. Other than the first three corners in Malaysia we've had dry conditions on race day for the entire season, despite the amount of practice and qualifying events that have been interrupted by some precipitation. Spa as always promised so much and has often delivered on that promise, but today not too much - at the front of the field the race was virtually a complete formality outside the first four corners of the race. It was a race where the DRS on the Kemmel straight was all too often far too powerful and cars would just ease past one another, but some drivers were a little more adventurous - and Eau Rouge didn't claim any victims this weekend, in F1 anyway.

It is always a shame that the series moves away from Spa as it signifies that the traditional European season is drawing to a close, with only Monza left next time out - after that lies a range of new and typically over-engineered tracks. Of course there is still Suzuka and Interlagos in there which echo to the adoration of fans across the planet, something that Abu Dhabi and Korea struggle to attain. But this time around the Belgian GP will not be etched into the annuls of history of being a hive of activity and an enthralling challenge for victory, but I've seen considerably worse races.

The Race

I hoped to turn on the coverage to find the BBC crew holding umbrellas and standing in a puddle in the pit lane as rain descended on the circuit - yet there was sunshine and blue skies... at Spa, what madness was this. Twitter indicated that several showers had hit the circuit overnight but as day erupted it was bright with no threat of rain until well after the race was finished. So we started the formation lap in the dry making the strategists days considerably easier, and a little more uneventful.

Off the line the front row mad an even start but the main losers were Di Resta and Webber who lost ground which slowed the inside line down a little bit. So when the Lotus' and Webber went three wide through La Source a gap opened up for Alonso. Raikkonen and Grosjean went wide and Fernando used KERs to pass Webber into Eau Rouge - 10th to 5th by turn two isn't too bad. On the other side of Eau Rouge on the exit of Radillon Vettel seemed to have so much more speed than Hamilton and just eased past the Mercedes a long way before Les Combes. As it has been seen on so many occasions before the German Bloke was never seen of again. Somehow the first lap was completely contact free, only Massa asked his team about his front wing after getting close to the back of Raikkonen as the Lotus came back on after running wide in La Source.

For a while nothing too much took place, everyone just waiting for the DRS to be activated, Alonso had a go at passing Jenson on the Kemmel straight before the device was activated and the Ferrari simply couldn't out-drag the McLaren ahead of him. Out of those cars that broke into Q2 yesterday on the slicks both the Marussias had fallen to the back of the field - Chilton naturally taking up last place, while Van Der Garde was still in the place he qualified in, despite being under pressure from Maldonado and the Torro Rossos. But as soon as the DRS was activated the positions started to change, which didn't work out too well at all for Jenson Button - first he was passed by Alonso in the Ferrari, and one lap later it was Webber repeating the process shuffling the McLaren down to 6th place. One lap after that Alonso performed the same pass on Rosberg for 3rd.

While things were settling down at the front of the pack, attention turned to the mid-field where Di Resta found a line of cars growing behind him, headed by Hulkenberg and Raikkonen. Kimi was finding if difficult to pass the Sauber even with the DRS because the Lotus isn't the fastest car in the straight line. Behind them Grosjean and Perez were involved in a similar battle, except this time the Lotus was defending - Sergio used the DRS to get alongside and eased himself back onto the racing line before Les Combes. The problem being that Grosjean was still there and Perez squeezed the Frenchman off the side of the circuit and was promptly issued with a drive through penalty. Further up the train Kimi managed to gain a much better run through Eau Rouge then Hulkenberg to counter the lack of top speed to pass Hulkenberg into Les Combes without pushing anyone off. Because it is possible.

Slightly earlier than expected, the pit window opened and we entered the phase of the race where cars were in all kinds of positions through the field and generally being out of position - for example we had Hamilton doing battle with Grosjean as Lewis had stopped and Romain hadn't. Hamilton took the place initially, but refusing to be defeated Romain repassed the Mercedes in Les Combes, Hamilton tried again into the Bus Stop but Grosjean defended that attack effectively. As Vettel pitted from the lead, just to prove he still exists he found himself not leading the race because Jenson was staying out hoping for a one stop strategy to work out. Back in the middle of the field, Raikkonen was making his way forward after a stop and found himself behind Perez - the only car he keeps making contact with this season. This time things were more sensible, but due to a lack of straight line speed Kimi had to think outside the box a little - and made the pass stick round the outside of Bruxelles, which does not happen too often. The Finn wasn't done, following that pass up with one down the inside of Gutierrez into Rivage and the grand finale to his charge was a brilliant pass round the outside of Di Resta in the final chicane.

However Raikkonen's day was about to implode as he caught Massa, the Lotus had been releasing clouds of brake dust from the left front for quite a while, and as Kimi went down the inside of the Ferrari into the Bus Stop the brakes finally died. The Lotus ran off wide, and returned to the pits for retirement, ending a monumental streak of race and points finishes. Elsewhere the Force India team were having fun with Perez, as Di Resta was attacking the McLaren Sutil passed the pair of them almost running three wide on the straight down to Eau Rouge until Adrian took the place. As Perez pitted the Force India squadron caught up to the back of the battle between Maldonado and Gutierrez. It had been a while since Maldonado had run into anyone so today he was about to make up for that. Firstly he tried to round the outside of Gutierrez in the Bus Stop after running side by side through blanchimont and then tried to make the pit-lane. The problem was the Force Indias were in the way - firstly he hit Sutil losing half his front wing, Pastor then tried to turn again towards the pit lane and wiped out Paul Di Resta. The second Force India was completely ruined and Maldonado ended up with a 10 second drive through penalty but was able to continue.

After escaping the melee Sutil found himself side by side with Gutierrez approaching Eau Rouge, the Mexican pushed Adrian to the edge of the track but left just enough room, but Adrian kept the boot in and passed his second car turning into Eau Rouge. But with this battle pack broken up the order had roughly sorted itself out with sensible gaps through the field. Vettel was in a different universe in the lead, Alonso in second also had no-one near him - Hamilton was the only car in the top three that could see anyone else as his mirrors had Rosberg and Webber in them albeit with three seconds between each car. Button had a lot of track space to his self in 6th, 11 seconds behind Webber. A couple of positional changes were left, as Massa took Grosjean for 7th demoting the Lotus to 8th. Down outside the points Gutierrez and Vergne were duelling, the Mexican went down the inside of the Torro Rosso in Les Combes, but Vergne held position easing Esteban off the road on the exit of the corner. But Gutierrez refused to be defeated and made the move stick - however the car was off the track and the stewards issued another daft penalty. Meanwhile Chilton also received a penalty for ignoring blue flags.

Our hopes were raised momentarily before the race drew to a close as Vettel's engineer informed him that there might be some rain on the way... but he inevitably lied because the race stayed completely dry to the end. Vettel crossed the line in a different time zone to everyone else... again. Alonso recovered from a poor qualifying with a strong race up into 2nd place, while Hamilton fell back to 3rd. Rosberg was able to hold of a brief charge from Webber to take fourth place not too far behind his team-mate. Despite having to give up on a single stop strategy Jenson brought the McLaren home in a respectable 6th place, scoring enough points to take the team ahead of Force India in the constructors. Massa finished 7th after passing Grosjean a few laps from the end, Sutil survived the mid-field contact to score some points in 9th, while Ricciardo - Webber's potential replacement - stole a final point from Sergio Perez at the end of the race.

The Bonus Points Championship Points Winners

This most recent visit to the Belgian GP circuit was not the most memorable of visits to the grandest of circuits on the current calendar, the rain never arrived and as predicted Vettel was able to vanish off into the distance.

• 25pts - Fernando Alonso  -10th to 5th in three corners, and then up into 3rd within 6 laps ultimately finishing best of everyone who isn't Vettel
• 18pts - Adrian Sutil - Two passes into Eau Rouge both on unpredictable Mexicans
• 15pts - Sebastian Vettel - For being dominant once more
• 12pts - Daniel Riccardo - 19th to 10th deserves a mention  
• 10pts - Kimi Raikkonen  - Some of the best overtaking manoeuvres of the day
• 8pts - Jenson Button - A decent day for the McLaren, beating a Ferrari and a Lotus on pace
• 6pts - Giedo Van Der Garde - For retaining his position longer than the other lower teams
• 4pts - Esteban Gutierrez - Did a good job today, and didn't deserve that late penalty
• 2pts - Pastor Madonado - Managed to hit two cars from the same team in one corner
• 1pt - Lewis Hamilton - For conspiring with Vettel to douse Coulthard in champagne on the podium

The Penalties Championship

The stewards have been a little weird over recent races and another brace of penalties have been unleashed again this weekend:

• Lotus Team - 5,000 EUR fine for an unsafe release of Grosjean's car in Q3
• Sergio Perez - Drive through penalty for forcing Grosjean off
• Max Chilton - Drive through penalty For ignoring blue flags
• Esteban Gutierrez - Drive through penalty For passing Vergne because that is apparently illegal now
• Maldonado - 10s stop and go penalty, for leading a one man assault on the entire Force India team

The Penalty Points Championship

Other than the official penalties because they are getting a little mental of late here are the in-house penalty points

• Rain - Where were you?
• The Stewards - Sometimes I wonder
• Jack Harvey - Caused a significant accident in the first GP3 race, but the chap oddly actually admitted to causing it

Looking ahead to Monza

From one massively fast high speed circuit to another, Monza has the highest average speed of any lap on the calendar and marks the conclusion of the European season before everyone packs their bags and flies out to the night race at Singapore. Monza is characterised by really long straights leading into several chicanes which on the basis of other races this season will be overly exploited by the powers that decide where the DRS zones are placed. Much in the same way as Spa in the sense that there is a chance of being taken out by an errant car in a chicane especially at the first corner. A situation demonstrated by Liuzzi in an HRT taking wild evasive action alongside Heikki and speared across the grass wiping out Rosberg and Petrov in the first corner. 

The season at this point is starting to look like a Vettel walkover again, that championship lead is constantly increasing, and is going to take some beating, especially if Vettel doesn't come across any problems. It was calculated that for Hamilton to beat the German Bloke he'd have to take - on average 5.5pts per race from the Red Driver, a little less for Alonso or Raikkonen. But Kimi's retirement plays into Sebastien's hands to make Alonso the new closest challenger. But things could be worse, for example in Formula Ford UK - Dan Cammish has won all 21 races of the season, which is taking dominance way too far. Perhaps Monza will be different, technically not a Red Bull circuit, but neither was Spa, so until then this is farewell from blog HQ.

Round 11: Belgium 2013 - Qualifying

Greetings Internet,

Well done Belgium, well done indeed - that is why this race is so highly regarded and why the circuit is the immense venue that it is, because that was one of the greatest qualifying sessions in a very long while. It had everything, drivers and teams making brilliant gambles and those that didn't quite pay off as well as it seemed. Despite having the same four cars holding the top four spaces on the grid as we have seen over the past few races, it doesn't come close to covering the story of what happened today - and miraculously as the conditions swapped from wet to damp to dry to sideways rain and back to dry again, no-one ended up tearing wheels of the cars and planting it in the barrier.

The early indication through free practice was that Red Bull would walk away with things, 0.8s up on the field in FP2 in the dry - not that Spa does dry too often - so if the track is dry tomorrow I can just see someone vanishing off into the distance. But add some moisture into that mix and the race is anyone's - perhaps not the epic madness of 1998, but something of that order would be nice and a Caterham, Marussia podium... well perhaps that would be asking a little much, even of Spa. So just how did things fall into shape today.

Qualifying

The timing was perfect at the very beginning of the session, because as soon as everyone started to get ready to join Q1, the rain began to fall and there was enough rain to justify the teams starting on the intermediate tyres. Williams and Torro Rosso queued at the end of the pit-lane almost two minutes before the light turned green. Maldonado was instructed to set a banker lap in case it got wetter, and promptly went off at Le Combes and missed the chicane.

With the conventional faces running at the front of the grid as the rain stopped, but the track was still way too wet for slicks, a certain Esteban Gutierrez was running second and stayed in the top five for the majority of the session. As the track started to dry off there were some drivers in some very odd positions - Alonso and Massa were in relegation, Raikkonen and Vettel were just on the other side of the zone. But times started to fall rapidly dropping Gutierrez from the top five into the relegation zone as Alonso went fastest and the rest of the front runners followed him up.

Then something magical happened those at the very back took a mad decision to put slicks on, but the plan worked exceedingly well, even having to evade Di Resta who was spinning in the middle of the bus-stop chicane. Chilton ended the session 16th... miraculously was the man not last, but into Q2. But because Bianchi is faster he finished 11th which in itself is just outstanding, but it is not the best showing. Giedo Van Der Garde was 3rd... yes the car was on slicks, but a Caterham... 3rd that deserves a high five and several bonus points.

In Q2 it was completely dry, and no-one was waiting in pit-lane to take to the track immediately as the light turned green and in a day of vastly changing conditions Q2 was a completely normal session. Red Bull put the harder compound tyres on and Webber sat at the top of the timings for a while. Until he was defeated by Raikkonen and Alonso joined the party in 3rd in the Ferrari. It could be considered fortunate that it didn't rain much more or Raikkonen would be popping round to Ferrari to raid the ice cream fridge again. Yet Hamilton and Vettel, were just sitting around in the garage not doing too much as the session reached the half way point

It seemed that this session was showing that the competition for a potential pole position was going to be very entertaining as Red Bull, Alonso and Raikkonen were setting very similar times with Mercedes, Grosjean and Massa not too far behind. But they were not having it their own way, Jenson and Force India were in the middle of that battle which pushed Hamilton very close to relegation, only 0.02s ahead of Hulkenberg's Sauber. Cutting things a little close as Lewis was fourth as the chequered flag fell and finished tenth as others completed their laps.

Now Q3 was fun, very fun indeed, rain was coming back so everyone lined up in the pit lane hoping to complete a lap before it arrived... well not quite everyone because Di Resta (and the team not that Paul acknowledged the help) predicted a lot of rain and put the inters on and waited. That rain arrived as the other cars reached stavelot and came down with anger, the two Lotus' were powersliding two wide through Blanchimont - not recommended ever but both survived. They pitted leaving Di Resta with the track to himself in the lightest of the rain and swept into the lead. Everyone else swapped onto the inters and were miles off Pauls pace as rain intensified.

Di Resta was looking very happy and safe, it was raining sideways and cars were losing seconds per sector - except Rosberg who was only half a second down, somehow it didn't make a whole heap of sense but fair enough. Then all the sideways rain suddenly stopped and the track virtually dried instantly - we saw people with brushes clearing water in Canada and Australia but in Spa it just left. And in an instant Di Resta's pole hopes also evaporated, Rosberg pounced first and took the place away followed the two Red Bulls deposing the Scot yet further. Where was Mr Di Resta in this, well he, like most of us assumed he was safe and was sitting in the garage. Eventually the battle for pole came down to Vettel vs Hamilton the only two drivers to manage to do one more lap than the rest a battle which fell once more to a Mercedes driver and another pole to Hamilton. While the other title contenders Alonso and Raikkonen didn't get that extra lap and are at the back of the top ten.

The Bonus Points Championship Points Winners 

Where do I begin with that session, everyone probably should have some points for keeping it out of the wall as the weather was all over the place but there were some very points worthy performances to put on the board today.

• 10pts - Giedo Van Der Garde - 3rd in a Caterham, 3rd...
• 8pts  - Paul Di Resta - Almost complete genius move in Q3
• 6pts - Chilton/Bianchi - Bianchi 11th, and Chilton not being last which is miraculous
• 5pts - Nico Rosberg - How on earth do you only lose half a second in sideways rain
• 4pts - Esteban Gutierrez - Second in Q1 on equal tyres even if it was temporary 
• 3pts - Lewis Hamilton - That car should not be on pole how it has been so far, yet it still is
• 2pts - Raikkonen/Grosjean - Two wide on slicks in the wet in Blanchimont without an accident
• 1pt - Rain - because that was epic

Looking to tomorrow 

Very few races look as exciting or as tantalising as this one does because they way this weekend is shaping up looks amazing, we have a grid with key cars out of position - Red Bull and Mercedes are at the front, while Lotus and Ferrari are at the opposite end of the top ten. Sitting in the middle of this melee is Di Resta and Jenson - the only plus point for Alonso is that he starts behind Grosjean who almost took his head off this time last season. This pattern extends to the back of the grid where Marussia and Van Der Garde are in the middle of the mid-field in cars which in equal conditions are a lot slower than anything around them which could lead to all kinds of mayhem.

Just when that seems like a brilliant configuration as is, place that on the most challenging and dynamic circuit on the calendar which has seen so many epic and enduring races and the thought of those 44 laps tomorrow is massively exciting. However that is by far and away not all because those 44 laps on such a brilliant circuit may be taking place in very changeable or even full wet conditions - everything points to this being the best race of the season. So until then farewell from blog HQ, managing to complete the post before midnight. 

Round 11: Belgium 2013 - Preview

Greetings Internet,

Finally, the wait is over, as the summer break comes to a much anticipated conclusion, returning on what is a very busy motorsport weekend. Because we have BTCC, Indycar, V8 Supercars and all of the F1 support events all taking place over the next few days - the hard drive in the sky box is weeping at the prospect of having to store it all. Here at the end of that break, waiting to embrace the second half what has been a rather complex and often angry season - people have been angry at Pirelli for doing their job, team-mates have been angry at each other, and Di Resta is often angry at his team for pretty much everything, we have the greatest track of them all. The one and only Spa-Francorchamps...

During the time off the rumour mill has been rotating at breakneck speed, all manner of driver line-ups have been postulated heading into the 2014 season, everything hinging on the fate of Felipe Massa, and that empty space at Red Bull. The odds seem to suggest that Ricciardo is going to replace Webber - from the development program - but the other suggestion is that Raikkonen will take the seat, which could set off a sequence of events. Other theories see Kimi to Ferrari alongside Alonso, or that Massa is replaced by Hulkenberg and Alonso goes back to Lotus alongside Grosjean considering he and Luca Di Montezemelo have not been making friends at the moment. It turns out the big man at Ferrari doesn't like Fernando complaining about the car, even though Spaniard does have a very valid point. I can sense things are going to start to unravel, and with the likes of Sirotkin lurking with money from Russia, the grid next season could look very different. Of course there is the potential that all these rumours and suggestions are only smoke and mirrors - Ricciardo will take the seat and the status quo will remain elsewhere.

The Track

In a season peppered with all these new fangled Tilke-based circuits something none of those huge scale developments come anywhere near the quality of the outstanding Spa-Francorchamps, 7km of splendour, power and overall greatness. The calendar could do with a few more of these please. The Belgian GP follows the contours of the land through the Ardennes - using the elevation to it's advantage from the top of the hill on the entry to Les Combes, descending through Rivage and the double apexed challenge of Pouhon.

The layout itself has been subjected to some modifications in and around the pit area, the majority of which can only be described as blasphemy frankly, La Source was sharpened allocating more room on the outside as run-off space. In some respects it was a tolerable adjustment, but the things that were done at the other end of the pit straight border on unforgivable, the sacrilegious effort of redeveloping the Bus-stop chicane is the one blot on the copybook that is brought up each season. Everything about it is hateful, the apexes are too tight and it is chicane with a monumental amount of space between the two phases of the corner.

Other than those flaws, the track has everything including the infamous and legendary Eau Rouge corner, an uphill climb that is known throughout the motor-racing world, even though in the modern era of extreme downforce it is less of a challenge... in the dry at least. The same could be said for Blanchimont at the end of the lap, made even more subdued with the tarmac run-off space. But given the magnitude of some of the accidents in the key corners I think I can forgive the removal of the gravel. Those huge BAR accidents in 1999 on their own were enough to have the gravel taken from Eau Rouge. Spa not only typifies European circuit design, where flow and driving challenge is placed far above what the layout looks like on a piece of paper on a design office desk, but completely excels at it. Because of the rhythm and flow of the corners, unlike the newer layouts each corner flows into the next rather than being designed as a separate unrelated entity separated by excessively long straights.

If the layout wasn't strong enough the climate is such an intrinsic part of the event it is almost fused with the track itself, and looking at the predicted forecasts it could get very interesting.

What to expect

It's been a while, but tyres and complaining to Pirelli may resurface again at the track with the highest corner loads in Blachimont and Eau Rouge - the fastest corners of the entire season, it was for this event in 2011 that Pirelli imposed strict camber limits to prevent failures. It will be a strong test for the redeveloped tyre construction.

In terms of car performance, power of the track will help the Mercedes powered cars, for example it has always been a strong track for Force India - Fisichella almost took the teams first win in 2009, before Raikkonen scored the first KERs influenced victory. On the other hand a flowing downforce based middle sector will favour the Red Bull team - which once more opens the door rather wide for another Vettel victory. Because Spa is a low downforce circuit overall, the difference through the field is likely to be more compressed - even allowing McLaren to be competitive and potentially steering clear of the qualifying relegation zones. Each week there is the issue of where Ferrari and Lotus will be in the standings as both teams have had issues with the new tyre construction and their performances are increasingly temperature dependant - and Spa doesn't look like being a warm weekend.

A potentially chaotic rain effected race on a track with a closer time difference between the contenders give hope to those people at the bottom of the field - only 8 cars finished a rain affected race in 1998 because that was a very destructive event. If Michael Bay directed races, they would probably end up like that one. But in this modern era, if that amount of rain was to arrive everything would be cancelled, red flagged and left alone - which is odd frankly, you'd think modern cars with all this fancy technology foiled by a little monsoon. The problem is to do with aquaplaning and visibility - it happened in 98 too Aquaplaning under braking caused Fisichella to tear his Bennetton apart when crashing very heavily into the back of the Minardi of Shinji Nakano at the Bus Stop chicane. Hindered by visibility in spray coming off the back of the Japanese driver's car, visibility also prevented Schumacher from seeing Coulthard as the Scott moved offline to allow the German to lap him before Pouhon. It's moments like these that make Spa well worth the wait through the summer break for.